Short Term Update: sick drop? I’m not much surprised

I dunno why, but i’m not surprised to see an heavy selling activity on Sunday, probably too much bored traders at Bitstamp and/or Bitfinex; jokes apart i’m starting to be annoyed by the short term behaviour of this market, totally disconnected from the news with sudden heavy selling activities typical of an immature and unstable market and for unstable i mean the volatility level with its high variance or unpredictability as main characteristic.
Aniway $495 has been broken and now it will work as resistance in case of a rebounce, in the meantime the VWAP is quicly readjusting itself below the $500 mark. 
Support for next week should be in the $430-$440 price zone, resistance at around $495-$500.

The question now is whether this is a high volume breakout that portends much lower prices, or a high volume shakeout that will quickly be reversed by a strong reaction with good volumes and the price coming back above $500. Considering the low level nature of the investor community at the biggest bitcoin exchanges, personally I am leaning towards the shakeout theory rather than toward the breakout theory, it’ll be important to see how it’ll start the next week, the first 2-3 days.
 
chart

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7 thoughts on “Short Term Update: sick drop? I’m not much surprised

  1. Andre

    Thanks Enky. Seems that we already bouncing around 480-473 usd on Bitstamp, so another drop to 440 USD seems rather steep and i start wounding whether the general public views btc as strong. And hence is another drop to be expected ??

  2. Matthieu

    Have-you seen the volumes on BTC-e during the last hours ? I’m looking at Bitcoinwisdom figures on a 5min timeframe and i’ve noted a sudden activity earlier today going on all day long on a very regular basis and high volumes. This led to 40k coins being sold/bought today. Then, back to normal two hours ago. This pattern is totally unrelated to volumes on other exchanges even if the price kinda matched. Any idea what happened ?

    1. Matthieu

      Bot going wild as stated by velaya14. Gosh, that’s a lot of easy money for BTC-e. Obviously, today was not a bad day for everybody…

    1. IF the price moves below march 2013 top (266$) with the network difficulty starting to drop significantly, two necessary conditions to see a serious long term bear market, in this case i’ll close my longs.

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