Short Term Update: Time is Up

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In my previous update I hypothesized that the drop of last 31 August could have been a true breakout but at the same time i was leaning towards the shakeout theory, at this point considering what happened yesterday i have to remain moderately bullish for the upcoming days but there is a condition that must be met in order to move up to the first decent resistance, the VWAP at around $550.
This condition is to move above $500 soon, better this week, because with the weekend ahead i’m worried that there could be a new stall with a subsequent drop. Where will bitcoin found support in case of a furhter drop from here? Well the support for the second part of the month could be in the $420-$430 price zone, below the recent bottom done at ~$440; this possible scenario scary me a bit because moving below the previous bottom would have very bearish implications and i prefer to avoid complications.

 

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17 thoughts on “Short Term Update: Time is Up

  1. MS

    Do you think it is impossible that the price could continue to hover inside the 440-550 price range for a number of months? Does previous price action pretty much guarantee a breakout in either direction soon?

    1. You never have a guarantee. Maybe it goes very slowly. And maybe we will see a breakout. As you have seen in the previous weeks its easy to manipulate the BTC market.

  2. Arthur

    Meanwhile an interesting article that touches a subject that was discussed on Enky’s chat room today. If we can believe what is said here, it explains the low volatility and low volumes these days for a bit too.

      1. Anathema

        Interesting article. What caught my attention was this part:

        “Some of the traders are very inexperienced […] they’re throwing in market orders and thinking that just because they see the price at one level, they’re going to get that price,”

        We’ve been seeing sudden drops and rises in price. These are often taken for manipulation, but what if they are the buys and sells of inexperienced wealthy traders? Reminds me of Hanlon’s Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.” (or the British English variation that i like better, “Cock-up before conspiracy”).

        I just hope that the OTC demand is greater than the supply, so that hopefully some coins find their way from exchanges to the OTC market and price increases. 🙂

    1. Arthur

      Yeah, exactly. Looks like the big players are operating under the radar, and the exchange market is left to us and other amateurs.

      Before I thought there might not be so many big players yet, but I guess I was wrong. However it means that the market is bigger than we think and we are most probably building up more buying power anyway. Sooner or later that should end up with higher bitcoin prices, but in the meantime fingers crossed that not too many impatient amateurs will bring the price down further. In a way I’m happy where we are now, and let the bitcoin industry build on more products and goodwill meanwhile. No need to revisit the 300s if you ask me… 🙂

      1. Peter

        I’m feeling bullish at the moment I think that is the general sentiment. Whales are snapping up dumps should reflect in the price soon.

    1. Arthur

      Hard to say, Peter. In May it indicated the sprint from 450 to 680 when Bitstamp 24h volume dropped to the 1,200s (if I remember well), but later I noticed that dropping volumes could also indicate a sudden small dump. Volumes never reached the 1,000 range then, I noticed.

      But yeah, it always feels a bit creepy, in a way. Like all traders are holding their breath and preparing for a major move…

      1. Peter

        Yeah manipulators out of the equation and the market has a living breathing mind of its own. As always its interesting to see where it goes.

    2. Arthur

      Well, again the dropping volumes ended in a dump of coins. Doesn’t surprise me much anymore… Still summer slump.

  3. Peter

    Guys what this, a major break through has happened in terms of safety!! This is even better then Trezor (not in my opinion, it just is)!!

    1. Arthur

      Yup, this guy announced it a few months ago I remember but he made it work obviously. Nice! This might be one of those killer apps that will bring bitcoin to the masses faster than ever before.

    1. Arthur

      Yeah that’s what I guessed too. Every now and then I’m checking the overall movements of alts, because they sometimes indicate what is ahead for bitcoin. This particular alt dropped to almost zero after losing some 90% of it’s value, and then I’m trying to figure out why. In this case it’s quite obvious I guess lol!

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