Short Term Update

XBT/USD continues to fall without ever being able to overcome the first negative deviation line of the average that I use to follow the market in the short term. This is definitely a very bearish behavior, as you can see from the attached chart the first resistance is at $ 406, the next is my VWAP computed using last 7 days, at $ 435.
If the market can move up to $ 435 without going back below $ 405, we can conclude that at least in the short term the bearish pressure is loosening a bit, vice versa if it fails to overcome $405, the first available resistance, I’ve to believe that we will probably see new lows below $ 380. More updated information is available for who follow my IRC channel.
chart

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6 thoughts on “Short Term Update

  1. No surprise. The end year economy forecast is in pink colours. BC is more value save asset and will suffer same way as gold and silver.
    If the interest rate will be increased, then there will be another hit. If western economy goes into stagflation there will be less and less money to put in.
    Volumes show low interest from big players, if there will be the one, they will get BCs at lowest possible price. No good news here as well.

    1. croll83

      Half agree with you about the link with the western economy, China is the biggest player in the BTC market, but the next bubble must be driven by western capitals. Don’t agree with volume analysis: volume is low pretty much because of OTC traders…

    2. Joe

      they are not, because all this early stage idiots that have couple thousands bitcoins and make those pump and dumps –
      this is why ppl are losing interest and no one wants to put big money and take the risk –
      i hate to say it buy im affraid that soon we might be under 266 since no one really like to play
      this pump and dump game.
      This market is too risky for serious players to get in,

  2. Joe

    they are not, because all this early stage idiots that have couple thousands bitcoins and make those pump and dumps –
    this is why ppl are losing interest and no one wants to put big money and take the risk –
    i hate to say it buy im affraid that soon we might be under 266 since no one really like to play
    this pump and dump game.
    This market is too risky for serious players to get in,

    1. This is the standard lifecycle of the new instrument available for public trading. It should be an initial phase when most of the available shares (or bitcoins in this case) will change an owner. Only after that the new owners will move the price.

      By the nature of BCs there are a lot of unprofessional owners of BCs having huge amount of them in hands and they have to SELL them. The second factor is the uniqueness of BCs – limited quantity. Even this factor will drive the price of BC to the sky long term (because of inflation at least). It is really hard to shake out BCs from weak hands.

      Marketcap for BCs is LOW. Any big brother (JP Morgan as an example) can easily get it buyed by daily operations change. The problem is nobody will sell on growing market (immature owners). The only possible way to obtain a good position on this market is to bash it to the ground – force owners to sell. And I do see few options to do so: undefined status of BC allows to scare by regulations changes, government control to tax, scandals and trials, pushing the price down. Personally, currently I do see all these signs around. Which tells me – relatively big sharks are around and building their stake. They are not banks, but they are professional traders. They know how to play card game. Their goal is to build the stake big enough to make substantial money and push the price up selling the stake to real banks.

      So once you mention 2000 BC flippers – there is a problem. They sell, but they can buy only because of the falling price (if they want to buy on falling market). But at the end these 2000 BC will stay as bigger players asset and at the next move up (there should be moves up) they will buy back at the top. This play happens 100s of years. No one can withstand playing with professionals. If I would have BCs I would keep them (with the risk to have no value associated with them), rather sell on falling market.

      There should be ups and downs, but the trend (below 200 MA) should stay mid term. It may continue for a years maybe more. The interest to BCs should be stay on this market and the value should be low enough. Volume/low price is the sign of the future up play.

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