Short Term Udpate

Click to enlargeXBT/USD moved above the $405 resistance i’ve mentioned in my previous update, as expected it tested the quick VWAP average at ~$430 without enough energy to break above. This is again a bearish behavior but the bearish pressure is diminishing in intensity, as you can see from the attached chart now it is important for XBT/USD to stay above the indicated support area to prepare a new move to the next target, possibly at $455. If the $455 target is reached then I can start to consider $380 as a candidate mid term bottom.

17 thoughts on “Short Term Udpate

  1. nadir

    It just feels that no one is going to buy bitcoins and drive the price up any time soon.
    The ppl lost there confidence.

  2. Elie

    I am staying out of this market till it hits 180-305 range. Most of the “smart” and “pro” traders are out since the 500s. There is no point in trading in this risky market while everyone is out on the sides in fiat waiting for Bitcoin to finish re-correcting the price back to where it should be

    1. h3speros

      don’t feel like that is certain, looks like we have still room to go down, but the bottom can be higher than 305, situation needs to be watched closely

  3. Arthur

    Thanks for the update Enky, as usual.

    My analysis for what it’s worth… We saw some crazy trading and random madness at the end of last week, with a drop to $378. Volumes and volatility picked up nicely too, but could be way better still I think. Now it looks ‘business as usual’ again, but somehow I think we didn’t see the capitulation point yet. If we did, I’m not complaining of course lol! But looking back at late 2013, we saw a rather stable price around $125 for some time after some turmoil early September, then a sudden drop to $85 (-/- 33%) on October 2nd. This moment ignited the famous bull run which brought us to $1163 in November 2013. Somehow I’m thinking this type of moment is getting nearer and nearer again. And the drop from 400s towards 378 was probably not enough yet, in my opinion.

    So I think we might see the following happening in the upcoming weeks. Price picks up slowly towards 450 (or lower, I’m quite doubtful about higher levels), then we will have another 1 or 2 days or craziness with another firm drop which will definately not be 33% like last year. Because all those % of jumps and drops seem to be getting less extreme over the years. So at 450 we will have a drop of ~25% which will bring us to 340, which happens to be the lowest low we have seen so far after the 1163 top last year. Then, let the sprint begin…

    My next trade will be according this scenario: wait for 450, sell a small % of my coins to put them back in the market at 350. Just to give it a try. 🙂

    1. I dont know. The people that boosted us over the 1100 dollar are now gone and in my opinion not likely to return. A lot of them made a loss with mining or trading. Thats the only way that others can make a big profit.

      I think they will not try it again. There might be some new people but i dont think we will ever see a new high like that again. Maybe it will return to 700 dollars some day but who knows.

      1. Andre

        I am quite sure others will step in as a lot of people are interested in gaining profit – somehow. If we all learn equally well on all occasions then we don’t have to be afraid of banks and fraudsters 🙂
        I remain optimistic and hope that we follow the predicted S-curve with the bumps Enky & Arthur described here.

    2. Arthur

      Hi Astenn, so far all sprints in the history of bitcoin had a certain level of ‘where the f*ck is this coming from’ so I think it’s likely that we will be pleasantly surprised someday again, when a new sprint starts. The moment when this sprint occurs is, of course, very much under discussion. For example, one technical indicator is showing that it will not happen this year, but maybe (early) next year. For the moment I would call that the only ‘flaw’ in my reasoning.

      So, please be kindly invited to check the 1w KDJ setting on bitcoinwisdom, so you will see what I mean. It indicates that a turnaround is very near (the J-setting is on zero, which is historically speaking extremely low! and the other lines (K and D) are very low too) but previous sprints didn’t start on a low KDJ, as you might notice. For my trade I will watch this closely, as you might understand. And it might mean that you are absolutely right; we should be happy with $700 at the end of the year. KDJ is with you. 🙂

      1. I see what you mean. And i can only hope you are right 🙂
        I was planning on holding my BTC for now. Since you dont know witch way it will go. If i sell some now it will be at a 10-13% loss. But then you do have som fiat if it drops below 400.

        But i think its better to nothing for now and wait it out.

  4. Peter

    Here is what I think is going on. Wallstreet players are coming in NOW and manipulating the price down so that they can buy them over the counter cheaper or from the exchanges. The price is somewhat an anomaly at the moment, all this crap about this is how markets move, I just don’t buy it with Bitcoin. The news has just been too good! And we are heading back to 2013 prices.

    1. skuffone

      Pete, my thoughts exactly – IMO due to liquidity being low on the exchanges, the smart money is buying BTC in the OTC market as per the below article (good read btw). So for the exchanges to rally we need to see panic buying from retail players. One could also assume the institutions are deliberately selling into any rally to keep the price down so miners are forced to deal at suppressed prices OTC… so I think we need to wait for the institutions to load up before they let the breaks off and then wait for the panic buying. Classic manipulation, but with all the positive news and very little negative news it my only explanation.

    2. Peter, I did hear lots such talks. Pumping is as dangerous as bashing. Did you buy above 500? Just bite the bullet. Did you mortgage your house to buy BCs? Hope not. If yes, it was not a smart move. Playing on a stock and money market is a hard job (I am doing it for two decades) and it is NOT what movies are talking about. There are two ways to make a fortune on stock market. The first one is inside and the second is the IPO of your company.

      BCs have few unique features market never tested before – no value behind, no control on funds moving and limited quantity. Such options never played before all together which means there are no algorithms so far to play on this market. And the existing ones are not applicable. That means a random player can still compete here and make some money. But it is not worth the investment of all your funds and savings. There are no algorithms, but there are skills and techniques real traders possess.

      If price hit 1000+ once it does not mean it will be there again. BCs can be dead (still no value behind) quite soon. Yes, starting this spring pro players are on this market, yes they are accumulating the asset. As I wrote in the previous posting if nothing extraordinary would happen soon the midterm trend on this market is down. Initial amature owners need to sell the asset as cheap as possible to new owners and then the price will be moved up selling to the broader market.

      Watch the global news: bashing BC means buy, pumping means sell. There is a huge potential to bash still, so the price will be lower. I mentioned it before.

      To summarize. It is a good time to open and start building the position in BCs. It would be quite far from here when this position will bring substantial profit. It is a long and dangerous run with still unknown results.

      All above is my IMHO

      1. h3speros

        BTC has fundamental value. It works better than FIAT-system. No corrupt middle man. That’s value.

        It’s possible that miners are selling cheap OTC and buyers are selling some to keep the price down so that they can buy more cheap coins from miners. It’s also possible that WS is trying to keep price down and accumulating. We might need real capitulation to get things going up.

    3. Arthur

      “We might need real capitulation to get things going up.”

      I think so too. Have just seen a W-pattern forming, that might go up to 480 in a few days. It’s also called a ‘bearish bat’ I just learned. After such W we will still see decline again with a drop to finalize it. The good news however is that volatility and volumes are growing so I think after that last drop things will change for the better.

  5. Mike

    Well, this has to be the first time this year Bitcoin prices has actually took off in the appropriate direction – ie, up – after a big and good news. That jump took about 10k Bitcoins. This is starting to feel right….

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