Short Term Update: Again Bearish

Here is a one hour chart of last 3 days, the market has rallied to the first deviation line that acted as resistance; I though this would be easy to pass and attack again the $450 recent top, but the market showed weakness moving again below my short term VWAP and found support at the first negative price deviation line.

I’ve seen a strong buying climax on paypal news when the market topped at $450 and since then it completely retraced down to $400 where the rally to $450 started. This is definitely a bearish behaviour and if XBT/USD fails to quickly recover the $420-$425 price zone i expect to see a further drop to $380 and possibly lower, to new lows.

chart

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10 thoughts on “Short Term Update: Again Bearish

    1. Elie

      You need all the points below to be positive or massively adopted SIMULTANEOUSLY for Bitcoin Market to turn massively bullish, until then we will be heading down to 200-305 range within the next few weeks or months:

      (1) Consumers: negative – (right now demand died, we need to reach more and new Bitcoin holders)
      (2) Merchants: positive – (that’s booming right now (mass adoption) which is great but it is driving the price down since consumers are not following)
      (3) Miners – positive

      1. George

        I would agree with that, Elie.
        I guess “massively adopted” is what we are going to see. XBT is too complicated for average Joe atm to understand and to use.

  1. Peter

    Elle I respect your trade analysis as you have been accurate many times even in the face of popular opposite views. Also it’s of Enky’s opinion that we have some down to go. But I’m going to disagree, I have been a raging bull for bitcoin right from the start. Merchant adoption might put selling pressure but it should give bitcoin legitimacy and since it is a store of value merchant adoption should mean more hoarding as it’s intrinsic value has become established. I’m going to be the idiot that thinks bottom is 400, it maybe be wishful thinking or that I want to be different but it’s just a funny feeling.

    1. Mike

      Peter,
      You are a bull and so be it. Technical analysis supports the bearish direction and fundamental analysis supports the bullish move. Neither can predict the actual direction of the Bitcoin price, period. That said I am sticking to my fundamental analysis position.

      1. Peter

        I never seen it like that before.. Yeah from a fundamental point of view we have increasing usage and increasing legitimacy so to me as Bitcoin is a deflationary currency (when we reach the produced coins) and that is it is easily transferable = great store of value thus should increase the price if people use it in this way. And because there is no stopping this it’s clear that Bitcoin is undervalued. One vairable not mentioned much either is that there will only be about 20 mil coins because bitcoiners have lost at least 1 mill worth of coins.

    2. Arthur

      @Mike +1. Well said. I’m in the same position, though I was planning to trade to grab a few extra coins in the 300s. But I’m abroad now with limited internet access, so I decided to stay in coins and sit this out. I missed also a 450 sale waiting for 480 that never came, so yeah… Not my best trading days. So be it, a turn around should be near now anyway. Happy trading guys, from these levels a capitulation flash crash to 275 is very well possible I think.

      1. Andre

        Where would a flash crash come from ? Currently it seems that the news is balanced – some good, some bad.
        The general tendency is bearish anyway, it seems. So I would assume we’ll see a drop until 340 but further down
        from there – hmmmm ??
        I am trying to get lucky and get a few santoshis with the bearish movement but I’d like to understand how the market
        is moving.

      2. Mike

        Arthur,
        Sounds like you’re at a place where you should be relaxing. My own sense is that we are going down to 300 or lower in the next few months. A new bull market isn’t in the cards this year but next, after we flatten out and volume dries up in the low 300s to high 200s. Just a trader’s sense nothing more.

      3. Arthur

        Haha yes Mike, I’m somewhere in Asia for a short holiday. Malaysia to be exact. Couldn’t help but selling a part of my bitcoins last night at 382.50 and now I will patiently wait for 270-280 because that’s where I think we will end up before the turn around.

        @Andre last year capitulation was a drop from 125 to 85 (~33%) so I’m expecting a ~25% drop this time. My guess is it will happen from the 350 level, so a drop from there will easily bring us around 275. Just my 2cents of course 😊…

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