Short Term Update

The market has failed a quick recovery above the short term VWAP and as I speculated in my previous update XBT/USD fell and made new lows; staying all the time under the first negative deviation line, as I have already said in the past this is bearish behavior. Short tern resistances at $380 and $400, next supports at $360 and $340. The price zone around $340 could be an interesting one for trying to catch a decent price rebound.

69 thoughts on “Short Term Update

      1. FJ

        Brilliant! But we are not moving, staying at 330 or so…..are we going down, down, and may I suggest down…? Hope not, but something is not right. A question: most BTC are helt by a few people, if these are still holding, how come the rest can manipulate the price in such a way? Are the Winklefosses selling? Hehe…There are some wives having to wash their husbonds trousers these days. Take care.

      2. vanen

        haha ! yeah it’s true that it doesn’t look like it’s going up right now, but since i’m not really sure of what will happen in the short term i decided to play it safe and grab my coins back. i don’t mind missing a bit more profit if it keeps going down a little more

      3. vanen

        even though i think there’s a possibility that what is happening is the big drop i was speaking about … hope it’s not

      4. FJ

        We may very well see 100 in a day or two. This is not looking good. Needs a long time to recover, if ever. We’ll see. Good luck,

    1. vanen

      i decided to resell since we are past 320. maybe a bad move, but i think it’s the right decision

    1. Arthur

      Well done on the resistance end. Now let’s see if the support end is correct too. 🙂

      BTW I had placed my bets on 382.50 -> 339 but now I’ll be watching ~347 instead. 🙂

      1. TY. The volume builds up trying to break through 390+ level. I would say it will fail and u will see the drop u r waiting 4.
        I have a hope the commodities will rebound (still in believe BC is from this category by behavior), but this hope fades away.
        It will be a brilliant end of the year in US (at least on paper) since the 2008 crisis.

      2. Arthur

        Spot on again, Michael, so far. The price might drop a little more towards 335 before the price correction starts that is suggested by Enky. Just to be sure I bought back in in the 446-450 range though, made a good profit. Happy 🙂

      3. Arthur

        Still happy. 🙂

        I work with ranges, and this time I decided to buy in at the 340-360 range, with a chance it would go to 320-340 range before the price correction is igniting that Enky is suggesting.

        When that price correction is not happening and it decides to break 320 going down, then I might set up a new trade.

  1. bob

    So been reading all this and crying a little inside for my long term coins. There seems to be absolutely no reason for all this. All bitclin news has been good! This is very weird.

      1. bob

        I’m definitely holding since I dont follow closely enough for day trading but wtf is going on? I feel like I should buy more. I’m firkin broke now 😦

    1. Mike

      Well, human nature dictates that no one wants to buy when things are going down. Conversely, the buyers come out of the wood work when it goes up. Buy when everyone sells and sell when everyone buys. Of course it’s difficult to know exactly when the lowest is as well as the highest. And yes it is not easy to buy when you gut is saying the opposite. …

    2. nadir

      There is very good reason for what is happening. Bitcoin isnt a stock and is mostly owned by early adopters that want to make money using trading and they only know how to “pump and dump” . this beaivour make ppl afraid of buying it at those prices and this what got it into the bearish trend we are seeing.

      1. Anathema

        And then there’s this interview:

        I have a feeling that it might catapult us into capitulation/despair phase, because a lot of people will think that bitcoin is dying (and i must say i have doubts myself, with banks embracing ripple and all, if that becomes successful, then bitcoin might really be dead).

      2. Arthur

        Too much honor for that old chap, that he alone will cause the capitulation phase, let alone the death of bitcoin. It’s funny also how many times bitcoin has been declared dead during bearish periods.

      3. vanen

        i will repost what i posted in the wrong comment :

        i’m not an insider/part of the bitcoin mafia/illuminati or anything so take it as you want, but bitcoin will happen, just not anytime soon . bull road won’t happen in a long time, and certainly not this year like people thought. i think we’re not at the bottom, and we will go much lower than that sooner or later. but it will happen, and it will reach the sky. for now, let’s focus on the ground, cause that’s where bitcoin seems to be headed, and we can’t do anything else than enjoy the ride. yiha!

  2. Peter

    He is full of shit, his only reason to slander bitcoin the currency is because it is a pump and dump scheme, how is that enough justification to slander revolutionary decentralized currency that is more efficient than fiat. He forgot to mention that pump and dump schemes take place in the house market, gold market and stock market etc… Nothing more than a prejudice white old man that is scared of new technology.

    1. FJ

      Yes, but: All the big companies accepting Bitcoin, they are just converting it to fiat as soon as they receive it. Why? 1.: They do not trust/want it. 2.: they can not use it for anything, their suppliers want USD. Also: Why should anyone spend their Bitcoins in lieu of their fiat? Bitcoin is supposed to reach the moon pretty soom so this is what you should hoard- spend your stupid USD, euro etc. Even though I have invested in BTC and see its potential I also see the fuckups. It’s a gamble and we are about to see the roulette stop.

      1. George

        “It’s a gamble and we are about to see the roulette stop.”

        Now it really looks like you said. I wonder what are Enky’s thoughts on this.

  3. FJ

    Enky is 266+ and increasing network difficulty. Otherwiise bearish and goodbye oney. But I have a problem with the scientific approach to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is something new, it is posessed mostly by jerks and it is a maverick. Using established ways to predicit its future is to use common sense to persuade a maniac to behave in a certain way. Ask him what time it is and he will tell you 1530. Or he will smack you. Gambling. Takes cojones:-))

  4. FJ

    Hehe…forgot to say that I am for sure a white old man. And I am keeping my 40 btc until curtain falls. I still think BTX are going big, there are just some bumps in the road. Nobody like loosing their job. How many employees have Visa? Master card? Things are changing and if you are patient and take what your doctor prescribes you will wake up to a new and beautiful world.

  5. Peter

    Actually, depends which way you want to look at it, you could say technically companies are accepting Bitcoin, Bitpay and Coinbase give merchants the option to hold all bitcoin or a percentage or instantaneously exchange it back to fiat, nevertheless the company is still accepting Bitcoin payment. And the reason they arn’t holding Bitcoin is simple, the supply change is fiat and the currency is volatile. What were seeing though is more and more merchants accept Bitcoin so the supply chain will eventually become universally Bitcoin also I hope the volatility will reduce. is there evidence for this?

    1. FJ

      Will you accept being paid in bitcoin? (I suppose you have a job) If, yes, whee will you buy your burger. And how about goiung to the movies? Today it is impossible. We need to see MASSIVE adaption soom or it will die. Some made some money, they bought in October 2013 and are selling big time now. The see the abyss. We’ll see where it ends.

      1. Peter

        Just check is your argument that bitcoin will die if adoption is slow? If so why can’t it growth slowly and continue to live and expand?

    2. vanen

      i’m not an insider/part of the bitcoin mafia/illuminati or anything so take it as you want, but bitcoin will happen, just not anytime soon . bull road won’t happen in a long time, and certainly not this year like people thought. i think we’re not at the bottom, and we will go much lower than that sooner or later. but it will happen, and it will reach the sky. for now, let’s focus on the ground, cause that’s where bitcoin seems to be headed, and we can’t do anything else than enjoy the ride. yiha!

      1. FJ

        Hope you are correct. I belive a poll early this year concluded that more than 50% of bitcoiners believed (read:hoped) that 1 Bitcoin would be worth USD 10000 at the end of 2014. These people are probably somewhat disappointed at this point and are leaving with a loss. If it were that easy to make money we would all be millionaires by now. This can go either way, USD 349 at Coindesk now. What- no typos?? Oh, I’m sober.

  6. Christian

    Hi guys, first time poster and I have to admit I was doubting but I am reinforced into my believed after reviewing this post and especially by the following link:

    This guy is not stupid, this guy just realized he missed the train, but has he missed it? Maybe he does because he thinks he did… Bitcoin is not about making money, Bitcoin is about making smarter money. Gavin Andresen said Bitcoin is an experiment and it still is. I would assume it is an experiment to see how far people are willing to go to achieve financial freedom, it won’t happen overnight and it surely won’t be easy. That being said, this is a small time market but also has small time units so if everyone stick to the plan and stop acting like the greedy few and scared sheep heard we’ve been so well trained to to everything will be just fine.

    The so called market movers can only move bitcoin out of fear that it will loose its value. In the end, things going like they are, there won’t be any future for your offsprings. Bitcoin is a chance to make a stand, the question is, do you have the balls to do it? Are you willing to endorse a great American slogan, the one form New Hampshire, live free or die… The good news is you won’y even have to, it should be more like, are you willing to maybe loose a little to show the big guys you mean business.

    Once the are fully aware, they will leave you alone. Simple logic, a bully always retreat with his tail between his leg when he meets significant resistance. As long as you, me and all the other believe in the system, it will thrive. Otherwise, it will fade away and die like it should.

    I am sticking to my 40btc no matter what and I will win in the long run no matter what because if it all goes to shit, I will be able to say to the few and most important people in my life that I made a stand when I had a chance to do it and it does not happen everyday… Most American think there free… Haha, they are only free to pay their dues to the greedy few in control of the money supply acting like mavericks at the wheel of the financial crazy train heading for a concrete wall at 200 miles per hour.

    Once they do, once again, we will have to bail them out, do you think they learned anything? Surely they didn’t as they are too big to fail or are they really? We are the one to settle this, stop selling on exchange and see what happens when we do…

  7. Christian

    By the way, great work Enky, I don’t particularly like trading or traders but, I think you’re sharing knowledge and I like that. Sharing is really the only way to grow individually and globally. Sorry for the typo’s, emotion is not only a problem with investments but also with writing, especially when you don’t do it in your native tongue. Technology not being as evolved as it should ;-(

    Right, emotion is something one should hide, not be proud of because it shows you’re acting on guts, the instant. Well the truth is all about that and you can fool some people some time but you can’t fool all the people all the time. The bottom line is, I you belive you can change the world stay in bitcoin, If not, sell, sell, sell and go back to your mom skirt crying about your loss

  8. Arthur

    Lots of despair + current price -/- $20 + smart investors start buying, FOMO investors follow soon = price jumps to $500+. We all smart and benefit, yes?

    Arthur’s Silly Law of Bitcoin Trading October 2014. Or something. No bull run yet, though, me thinks.

    1. Arthur

      Haha no not drunk lol! Just happy I did a good trade, my best ever so far. Made up all losses from a few previous trades. 😀

      1. Arthur

        Yeah thanks Mike! Internet not always available and only working with a little smartphone… I see despair growing everywhere at these prices so I just couldn’t help taking advantage. Like what’s said elsewhere here: Buy when everyone is selling.

        Meanwhile my average buy in price per coin dropped with almost $40, and I’ve welcomed another 6.3 XBT to my trading stash.

        Now let’s see how much more despair the market can take… I’m ready as always. 🙂

  9. Christian

    We will see shortly, the Bitcoin protocol can’t work without the proper infrastructure to support it. The mining might be a problem, not sure about that as it is also an industry that can be beneficial in many ways.

    The infrastructure can’t grow without an incentive which is the value of the mined units. If the price drops any further, we will see significant decrease in the hashrate and we will probably face many more months of low prices…

  10. Mike

    For those of you who have been around since the previous two runs, I’d like to ask if the pullback from 260 to 70 went down to 70 in a bit of a flash crash or in a fairly orderly fashion. This current pullback since we hit 670s has been fairly orderly, relative to the kinds of Chinese news driven crashes we saw going down from a grand area. I’m frankly hoping for the Winklevoss ETF to start trading in time for the upcoming bottom feeding.

  11. nadir

    Hi Enky

    What do you think will be the next strong support after 300 will break. Im thinking about 270 or 200.

    Thanks a lot!

  12. Arthur

    Wonderful crash. You must probably think I’m crazy but I’m really enjoying this. Now fingers crossed that 266 will hold (or will be broken shortly only) and then we finally had our capitulation.

    I only wished I hadn’t changed that 277 order in favor of a 346 order, but soit. C’est la vie.

    1. Mike

      I second your sentiment. Nice trading opps here. Something tells me that we haven’t see the bottom yet. I smell low 200s. Big boys are back on the sell side, with huge walls. That is good news.

    2. nadir

      Hi Arthur

      I this down trend is a little bit more serious than here is the bottom and up we go. it might go deeper…

    3. Arthur

      Yeah well don’t take my word for it since I was wrong before (I expected a 25% drop as capitulation from the $450 spot which would have brought us to ~$340) but %-wise a further drop to 200 is overdone. For me the crash started at 397 and with 275 we have seen a correction of a little more of 25%. And we stayed above 266, so it should be enough now I think. After that amateurish 300 sell wall is eaten (which is happening pretty fast if you ask me), there is room again to go up. Again, my 2 cents.

    4. Arthur

      30,000 sell wall at $300 completely eaten (I think it was Mr Satoshi himself selling there to give the market a push ‘hey here are some cheap coins, enjoy the ride up and spend them well!’) and indeed that gave room for a further move up. First time I see rather good volumes on Bitstamp: ~95,000 in 24 hours.

      Congrats to everybody buying at or below 300, you’re on 15%-20% profits already. Now let’s see if this momentum holds till at least $450. 🙂

  13. Christian

    Elie, nice graph, what about the next halving in fall 2016? I guess you don’t take that into consideration, but you should as supply will be cut by 50%. My guess is it will have a drastic effect on price @ that time. Big guys are playing the market to lower prices now. How low will this be is as hard to tell as the drop we’ve seen lately.

    1. Arthur

      Haha yeah, I noticed that immense wall too since last night. Then gone, then reappeared, etc. for a few times. It’s scary and it made me laugh, so most probably it’s an amateur from the early days with no phonebook to look up the # of his nearest OTC broker, and still trying to cash his coins. Another proof how immature this market is, if you ask me.

      1. Frank

        Indeed Arthur,

        What a wild west show. A complete fixation @300 and someone with deep pockets putting up a wall with 30K+ coins. Definitely smelling like major market manipulation scaring all amateur investors the s*** out of their pants. Hats off to you manipulator. Well played … 10K BTC pizza anyone?

  14. As I mentioned 40 posts above BC were oversold under $300.
    Now we can see an attempt to breakthrough the $345 support line which became the resistance line during this weekend.

    I closed half of my long. The nature of sales right now look like relatively big fish wants to sell.
    If we will go above I would liquidate the longs.
    If we drop I would wait to buy back.

    Finally BCs started to change owners. Look at the volume. That means there will be a rally up in mid term. A good rally. Short term I am waiting for confirmation below $300 for the double head figure.

    Good luck folks!

    1. George

      Tnx for update.
      I’m with you on waiting for another $300 or lower as it bounced right at $345 area.
      Fingers crossed.

      1. Eventually, the market tries to touch the bottom.

        Watching at the volume, I finally have a kind of relief: I do see the old good weka hands exercise of the players.
        Pick up BCs at level 1, once volume drops, pick up more at the level 2 ~15% down, etc. Bash good news, focus on bad.

        There will be a long run to consolidate, the real players would try to get enough BCs (because their qty is limited by definition). The test of the bottom is not over yet.

        The best analogy IMO is the Monopoly game: grab as many streets as you can. Then put you hotels and rip off the losers trying to catch the train.

    2. Arthur

      “That means there will be a rally up in mid term. A good rally.”

      I was about to mention this last night, together with ‘capitulation seems done and we see a rather perfect repeat of exactly 1 year ago which looks promising for the next 2-3 months’, however I was waiting for 1 week MACD to turn, and 1 week KDJ to touch each other and cross.

      Would you agree we share the same sentiments, Michael?

      1. I concur, Athur.

        It is still not clear where is the bottom level. I am also waiting for the confirmation. If the second dip will be lower $275, I afraid we will see new lows.

        However, BCs are oversold even now. That is why the volume picks up. But long experience tells me the play does not stop at this point. If I would be a long term bull investor (please, note this market DOES NOT have long term bears) I will be extremely bearish short term. I would probe every single level down, consolidate at this level, organize few spikes up to sell them off. And only when there will be LONG TERM BEARS on this market (miners, lucky owners at penny price etc) lost their hope in the BC future, then I will make one last nail to the coffin bringing price down. And after that, collected all I can collect I will pimp this asset selling 10X and more.

        Such scenario is for months and maybe a year. This is the horizon to plan as longer terms are so uncertain and would bring unmanageable risks.


      2. Arthur

        Haha, well said Michael. After 345 wasn’t broken firmly I decided to set up a 100% stop order at 269 for a rebuy at 205-210 level.

        However I’m not expecting it will be fired. If 275 is broken (or the old top of 266 for that matter) then we would see a break of a firm bullish trend in the bitcoin space, which I’m not expecting. However, all options are open, so are potential profitable trades. 🙂

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