In my previous update I had hypothesized a price movement up to $ 370 instead the market has reached $ 415, showing more strength than expected, a sign that investors are looking bitcoin as underpriced.
In the chart that I attached below you can see the potential levels for the next few weeks and months; the recent $275 bottom corresponds to an intermediate level between two long term deviation lines, the first line of deviation that is at $ 360 is now become support and is no longer a resistance as previously thought. I believe that in the next days the market will stay above $ 360, once complete this consolidation phase we will see the true intentions of the market: to return below 360 dollars with strong volumes indicating a possible scenario of a new low at around $220; on the contrary, a break through the 430-440 dollars resistance level (an intermediate level between $360 and the vwap at $500) would mean a retest up to the long-term average VWAP, now just above $ 500.
It will be very important to observe what the market will do at around $ 360 because below this level it would be again fully bearish. I conclude spending two words about volume activity, my weekly net volume indicator is again bearish for this particular exchange (btc china), but also for the others ones (bitstamp, bitfinex, etc..) signalling a potential topping area for this market, at least for the short term.