Long Term Update: True Break Out?

After trading in a range that lasted for almost five weeks (300$-380$ price zone), bitcoin prices have made a run for it. The breakout above the ALMA weekly moving average (now at 380$) happened very quickly with high volume. Given the volume action of the last few days, another breakout above the $500 level at a first glance seems likely in the near future. The first decent resistance is the one year VWAP now at around $550 and it’ll be a true test to see if XBT/USD is still in a correction inside a long term bull market.

As i’ve said the weekly moving average i use is turning positive but i need to wait this and the next week to see if the reversal is genuine or not, the risk that we are just seeing a giant bull trap is not excluded; it might happen a repetition of may-june pattern where after an upmove of 250$ the market stalled and resumed the downtrend in July.

For the time being the possibility to reach a long term bottom at $220 by year-end is fading away, at this point i’ve to consider the recent bottom at $275 as an important one and again above the top of the previous cycle did at 266$.

chart

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35 thoughts on “Long Term Update: True Break Out?

  1. Arthur

    Thanks Enky. I noticed the high volumes too, it’s a good sign. For a proper sprint I think the volumes should be much higher still, I think.

    1. Arthur

      Yeah this is awesome news for Ethereum. They must be doing something good, I presume… However, I’m worried for the long term effects for Counterparty. Ethereum is supposed to be offering so much more as Counterparty (that’s why Ethereum is also considered as working on Web 3.0) that Counterparty is running a risk to become obsolete or incorporated in Ethereum. But short-term, I just love to see the competition ‘working together’. 🙂

      1. Peter

        That’s another way of looking at it! Interesting space. Scary to think either of these can compete with bitcon eventually.

      2. Peter

        May I add that some notable asset distributors have already joined Counterparty meaning they have a head start. This is important for the network effect. Also Patrick Byrne wants to put overstock on there and through medici has already bought it forward to regulators.

    2. Christian

      Are most not all sheep? Why do you think they are so scared about the government and banksters statements on this? people need to stop being scared and act upon what they believe in instead of following the herd

      1. Christian

        I think both of them will eventually embrace Bitcoin, it seems like the only way out of the hole the dug themselves in… As for going up, it should be relatively slow but steady to be sustainable until we reach another buying mania triggered by some sort of news, events or both… I am not the Christian who bought @ 350, my cost of entry is way lower than that…

    1. Peter

      Nice buy price I bought “one last coin” 40% at 320 and 60%at 360 so average price is 340 🙂 I was actually expecting a drop after I bought it lol

  2. Elie

    Folks this was a MEGA bull trap it was so obvious like i said in the IRC, I exited early and stopped trading after seeing the thin orderbooks of Stamp and Finex. This is going back down to the 200s if not less pretty much soon.
    it was one shot to the 470s manipulated by some institution.

    1. Peter

      50k volume at stamp, seems pretty good? Maybe it was a dump by some long term holder that missed out on the last price rise?

    2. Christian

      Why do you say that? From what I see the order book is ready for a bounce back. To be honest I don’t see anything MEGA about this. Some think it is going down, but I am not worried as long as there are more buyers than sellers, which seems to be the case now. Why would that be? MAybe a lot of traders got caught short at 330$ and now the buy back seems to much, it will only get worst, much worst over the next few weeks…

    3. Christian

      MEGA would have been a +100% swing, we only had 25-30% 😉 and there is already a correction which is good in my opinion. Stil,l I am a curious one and I don’t hold the truth. Why do you say MEGA bull trap?

    4. Christian

      rise and fall by half the rise is healthy. Rise, rise, rise and rise only ends up with fall, fall, fall and fall. We already went through that in the past 12 months. Now is the time to rise again, slowly, but surely.

    5. Arthur

      I’m afraid you’re right, Elie. The only thing not mega is that the bulls already run out of ammo at 450 something instead of 500. 450/2 = 225, next stop in the upcoming period. Overshoots during a flash crash around that zone might go to high 100 (175+). Just my 2cents, as usual. It’s always easier to analyze afterwards than to predict beforehand. 🙂

    6. B. Mums

      Bitfinex order books are not thin IMO, instead they are back to normal. They got waaaay too congested back down in the low-mid 300’s before this big spike up. I don’t think you can really say the order books are thin now, but more so normalized.

      I’m 50/50 on this being a bull trap or not.

      1. B. Mums

        Make that 60/40, leaning towards legit spike up, but maybe after a few thousand coins of buying-manipulation to get ‘er rollin’..

      1. Arthur

        Well done FJ! I can see now why 410, being the intermediate level of 369-453, makes sense. I based 390-395 on the RSI figures at that moment and it did halt there… But after a correction to 380 we get ~410 anyway. Hats off. 🙂

  3. Killer Whale

    Enky,

    As other commenters are alluding to, I can’t help but wonder if there is tremendous institutional market manipulation going on. Is this possible? And if so, is this knowable or provable? Why might big players want to manipulate the market, i.e. pump and dump? Or perhaps to kill the perception of bitcoin’s usefulness. Curious to know your thoughts. Thanks.

  4. Christian

    By the way, I don’t know if you noticed,but the bulls have been very resilient over the past 3 years. I believe this market has been manipulated for many months now and the bears might be running out of ammo. On top of that, even if they can reload, maybe they think it would eventually be useless to do so…

    1. Dont think so. Because since his post BTC is showing a decline again. Thats only conferming what he is saying al the time. 550 would have bin the test and we need to be above the weekly avarage for a longer period. Today we are pushing against that average mark arround 380$.

      1. B. Mums

        I disagree. I think Enky is saying we have a few days to push up. If we have another run similar to the last… I bet we’d hit near 550 at the peak.

  5. Peter

    woohoo let’s hope we don’t fall below 380 then, we may just have hit bottom at 275… Time will tell Bitcoin moves in all kinds of crazy directions.

  6. Christian

    Even if it falls under 380$, it’s really not a big deal, it will come back up again, again and again 😉

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