Long Term Update: Losing steam?

This is a daily chart of 4 main exchanges (bitfinex, bitstamp, btce and btc china data averaged down), the blue tick line is the ALMA moving average. As you can see in the last 2 days the average turned bearish again, this doesn’t mean that XBT/USD will fall for sure, it might be a false signal but considering that also the weekly ALMA turned again bearish failing to confirm the bullish reversal of last week the obvious conclusion is that this market is losing a bit of strength and the risk of a downswing is around the corner. I think that as long as it stays above 360$-365$ is fine despite a negative outlook by those averages but a break to 350$ or lower would confirm the bearishness in the currency pair.



24 thoughts on “Long Term Update: Losing steam?

  1. beleg

    Hi Enky,
    thanks for always sharing your analysis! 🙂
    I’m wondering why do you keep on excluding Huobi and OKCoin from your charts? If it is because of their 0% fees system, as far as I know BTCChina also behaves in that manner.
    I also wanted to know what parameters are you using for your ALMA. (14,0.85,6) ? I have found out that using (20,0.75,6), looking for price to cross that moving average, is a good way to highlight trends (in BTC at least), even in small timeframes.

    1. Enky

      it’s a manual process to mix the data togheter, so i don’t want to waste too much time preparing the data.
      I use 0.95 to reduce lag, windows size 23, sigma 6

  2. Arthur

    Thanks Enky. We checked with EW theory and with the current drop to 360 we could be entering the second wave down. Bottom of this wave should be low 300s, and third/final wave to follow. Just a theory of course.

      1. Peter

        Whoever buys these coins off the fed is in for a real barging long term. Can’t wait to see the outcome of this.

      2. Arthur

        Hehe, good one. I’ve always projected the final bottom of below 250 around end of November or December, and it is quite the coincidence that December 1st this auction ends, if I’m right.

      3. Peter

        I see how you have tied up the final bottom with the purchase of FED coins. Could very well be the case. Won’t Black Friday create more demand for coins, for exclusive Bitcoin offers?

      4. Arthur

        I guess it’s the contrary, people need $ for buying presents in the holiday season and sell their coins. There is not enough merchant infrastructure yet to support huge amounts of exclusive bitcoin offers.

  3. Peter

    I see how you have tied up the final bottom with the purchase of FED coins. Could very well be the case. Won’t Black Friday create more demand for coins, for exclusive Bitcoin offers?

  4. Christian

    Give it a little time, We are still a very long way to under 250$, which is very unlikely to happen. The resistance is very strong @ 300, we will see. I don’t think the auction will change much about the price, it will probably be bought by a single large player @ market price. If it does something, I agree that BTC should go up.

    Don’t forget that the market seemed to be dead just before the last run up, it might not be different the next time…

  5. Christian

    Good work and read Enky, right on the nose most of the time. A quick comment on Black Friday, as far as I know, merchants liquidate their coins just like drug dealers. It really should be putting a downward pressure on price if you couple this with existing holders buying with BTC. We will see how it turns out next week…

  6. Arthur

    “but a break to 350$ or lower would confirm the bearishness in the currency pair.”

    Well, we are there guys. What’s next? My prediction, for what it’s worth: further decline this weekend to low 300s, bounce up followed by final drop of at least 453-369=84 (one of the guidelines of EW theory).

  7. Stu

    Hi Enky,

    Thanks as always for your insightful analysis, I’ve been following your blog for a year and a half or so. I’ve noticed that bitcoinwisdom is predicting a decrease in network difficulty upcoming, and that a decrease in network difficulty has always been something that you’ve said would cause you to close your current position. I know it just re-calibrated and another 12 days will elapse before the new difficulty and a lot can happen in that time, but what are your thoughts on this?

    1. Enky

      i don’t close if there is a network diff alone, there must be also a move below 266$ with sustained volume.
      Then it must be seen how much the diff is falling or if it is sideways.etc..

  8. Christian

    The network is about to stabilize for a little while, don’t expect too much of a decrease, but 10% would be good 😉 I have been waiting a very long time for this, ever since I started in Bitcoin in April 2013, so that translate into +18 months of astonishing growth now…

  9. Arthur

    Slowly I’m getting a positive feeling about XBT. I think we are entering bullish territory. After the 275 bottom we have seen the bottoms rise to 316 and 342.

    And I checked with EW theory, and I understand now why we didn’t see 453 was 3 compulsive waves up. So there were only 2 compulsive waves down to expect. Like I said before, it’s always easier to analyze afterwards than to predict beforehand lol.

    If we see the start of another bullish cycle now, the top might be in the 500-550 range I think.

    1. Arthur

      Oops, part of a sentence got lost.

      … why we didn’t see below 250 this time. Because the jump from 316 to 453…

      1. Peter

        Hold on to your coins guys, within 2 to 3 years we should easily hit 10’000 a coin. At least this is Tim Drapers prediction. By that time Bitcoin will be an established currency and less benefits of converting back to USD.

    2. I’m getting the same feeling Arthur. Hope all’s we’ll with you. When you see the 6month chart, things are looking a bit more like a bottom has formed.

    3. Arthur

      I’m fine Mike, hope you are rock ‘n’ roll too. 🙂

      I analyzed a little further and found out next of a bullish cycle is to be expected around 2-3 December. Quite coincidentally, the 50,000 XBT auction is on December 1st. What happened around the first auction: In the days before price jumped from the 440s to the 570s, and in the days after it proceeded to the 640s if I remember well. Now let’s see if patterns repeat… The only difference now is that the first auction was in a bearish period, and maybe now in a careful bullish period. Fingers crossed.

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