Long Term Update: again bearish

In my last tweet i’ve said that support is at ~$315 let see in detail why.

chart

I indicated in the above chart a strong support area for the next 1-2 weeks, XBT/USD is now again bearish because XBT/USD took a peek below the 2 months VWAP support zone at ~350$. I think the market will spend most of its time today and the next days above or at $315 and if it does then the 316$ November low probably ended the drop from 463$ on November 13. Despite the prolonged correction seen in 2014 I see no sign that the very long term bull market has ended (bitcoin is well above the 2013 average price) and in any case I expect the XBT/USD to hold above its previous 2013 top at 266$.

In case of a move below $315 a problematic scenario could develop with the possibility of my old bearish scenario to materialize (a quick visit to 230$ or so). I Expect buyers to show up below 300$ but in this market the volatility is unstable and can increase very rapidly making it difficult to make predictions on where the bottom will be.

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19 thoughts on “Long Term Update: again bearish

  1. Christian A

    Sold at 360. Still thinking about whether I should buy now or wait for lower prices. Stop loss at 340.

  2. Arthur

    Thanks Enky! I’m way too busy (work mainly, and my wife now 8 months pregnant) to be in the chatroom much, and I regret that very much. But life is what it is… And it’s good anyway. 🙂

    A while ago I stored the majority of my bitcoins in cold storage, and although they are on a loss (on paper) I’m OK with it. Because my maid and ether positions compensate well so far. And I’m sure in 2015 we will see much better times for bitcoin, especially in the second half. Meanwhile, from my bitcoin trading batch, I bought some more maid during a recent drop, because I’m expecting a good 2015 for maid too (testnet 3 and beta release before mid 2015).

    But let’s be honest, 2014 was not really THE crypto currency year… 😦

    1. Arthur

      Thanks Enky, so far all fine. 🙂

      In January I might buy a few extra XBT from my 2014 bonus. These low prices are very tempting!

  3. johny08

    On a daily chart you see a long period sequense back to $70. Probably we could see that again in April time pattern. And seriously, 180, 230 could be good trigger for selling short positions. The 4 hours chart is giving a better risk ratio for that as for long.

    However long short period on 300 could work too for some pips.

    (no recommandation for trading, better tip the blog owner)

  4. A Coinfiend

    Enky,

    Cryptocoinsnews.com has technical analysis by Jim Fredrickson which says that Bitcoin will likely break its current streak and turn positive around Dec. 22 based on long-term Elliott Waves. It seems there is some kind of “perfect storm” brewing (according to him) between Elliott Waves, the Gann Square, and a triple-bottom in the low 300’s that occurred on the 5-hour chart. Can you comment on this? https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/where-will-bitcoin-price-bottom-out/

    1. i don’t have nothing to add except that it’s hard to know in advance where the IV wave will end, now or at 200$.
      also for me 315$ is an important price zone but i derived it with another approach.

      1. A Coinfiend

        I agree that it’s hard to know when it will happen, thus my curiosity on your opinion of those circumstances, notably the Gann square and the triple-bottom at/below $316 seeming to intersect at the same time. And now, allow me to engage in some rampant speculation, just like everyone else seems to do on your blog 🙂 If Jim is right that the markets/news/etc. seem to follow the cycle rather than dictate it, which I’ve always known to be true, then it’s only a question of whether his analysis is correct in terms of timing. He went on to state that it will seem like an event was the catalyst for a bear-to-bull transition, but it won’t be. Rather, the event is the result of the change in cycle. To that end, I’m compelled by the fact that Dec. 26 is the Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl (an American football game), between the teams NC state and USF. Both NC and FL (the target audiences) have a heavily right-leaning populace, who are generally distrustful of the government, the federal reserve system, etc. I think that for a business owner, seeing one television commercial for Bitpay, laying out the way they process transactions with 0 fees for life, is a very compelling business case. Add to that the fact that Microsoft, Time, NewEgg, Dell and a whole host of other companies accept Bitcoin, and it would seem to be an obvious catalyst to ignite an avalanche of new adoption. Imagine knowing little or nothing about Bitcoin, and seeing the following on TV: http://stpetersburgbowl.com/bitpay/

  5. Alan

    After a quick moment resting at $305… We’re currently back up to the $330’s? Could we be trending towards a Bull Market for 2015? Me thinks (hopes) so.

      1. An Avid Coiner

        Peter Schiff had an interesting commentary on tax loss harvesting, for those in the US. Essentially, since bitcoin is treated the same as equities are for tax purposes, anyone with large gains in equities can sell their bitcoins (presumably for a loss, on paper) to reduce their tax liability on gains. According to Schiff, one could then re-buy coins and maintain both the capital loss for tax purposes, and retain ownership of the coins. I’m not sure how valid that is. He went on to say that bitcoin has never faced this end-of-year scenario with such tremendous tax implications on the line. If he’s right, we could see the proverbial “gloves come off” on the bitcoin market come January 1.

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