I waited a while before publishing a new update after the crash to $165 to see if market would have stabilized over $ 200. Now XBT/USD do seem to have a bullish bias and it has traded up from oversold levels but there is too much risk to go against the short term bearish trend. Despite this risk i decided to open a short-term trade (2 long positions opened at $230 and $170) that i’ll probably close at $270 where i’ve the first decent resistance level.
Before thinking about any bullish longterm safe bets i need to see my long term moving average turning bullish again, at the moment it is at around $300 and firmly bearish.
In the below attached chart I have highlighted the important levels for this year that i’ve spoken about in the previous update,these levels are still valid and i think that any visit below $220 and above $130 represent a long term buying opportunity. It would be a perfect longterm buying signal to see this year my long term moving average turning up with the price still below $220.