Short Term Update

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In the above attached daily chart you can find the usual moving average that i use, the VWAP calculated with the last 2 months of data and its price deviation lines, also you can see the white line that is the ALMA moving average, in the lower pane there is the well know RSI oscillator.
The ALMA average has just moved back into bearish position and I think prices should go down to retest the first VWAP negative deviation line at $212, if the volatility stays low instead I think that $225 should work as support.
For those who follow me in my IRC channel they know that i’m short from $237 with a target variable from 225 to 190 dollars, I decided to open a short position (short term trade) after the market has made a lower top ($268 below the previous one at $310). I’ll remain short as long the market will stay below $250-$270.

In the last 30-40 days i’ve done 2 more short term trades, from $200 to $227 and from $237 to $255, i would like to conclude this update by telling you two words about the long term picture: it’s very simple the long term moving average remains bearish so not yet time to average down my long term position.

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14 thoughts on “Short Term Update

  1. Christian A

    Thanks for the update, Enky!

    Hoping that the 225 support breaks. We definitely need more volatility.

  2. An Avid Coiner

    Volume is already plentiful – just look at the Chinese exchanges now (during their new-year period) compared to last time. To the previous comments – if $225 is broken, it may not be broken with the kind of bearish momentum that you have in mind. Stay sharp 🙂

  3. Roger

    Thanks Enky, but why do you describe bitfinex and not btcchina for the analyse? Your forcast seems not so easy with this other exchange.

    1. A Coinfiend

      $3000 is still both possible and likely on a long enough time-frame, i.e. more than a year, particularly now that we’ve entered a new Elliott wave, which will necessarily exceed the previous $1200 top.

      1. Numbers at hand from 600 to 1000 days are required to reach 3000 usd, it depends from the volatility level. So 2-3 yrs to see a new bubble, i personally think that we need a true scarcity of btcs to see the price above 1k usd again. 6-12 btc for block and not 25.

  4. powershifter

    Market recovery to 300, a little not up not down movement rangetrading and now knocking on the 235. Could go up to 260 in the range of the downcycle.

    The next breakout will down to a new Years Bottom around 150, when new ASICS 0,3 J/GH (April) and 0,01 J/GH (Mai/June) hit the market and making mining less expensive without rising the difficulty to much. But however i am not a prophet, so watch the fibos and emas and good luck in trading.

    Important thing last. Good news on bitcoins dont make people buying bitcoins crazy so we will see a strong bull cycle again (but defining good the value for BTC ecosystem, what is around 1 maybe up to 3 Billion, like the internet in 1996) worth.

  5. ALAN

    I really miss your in-depth reporting on BTC happenings. Hope to see another report soon! Wishing you the best!

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