Two months ago in my previous update i was skeptic to see a bullish reaction and i was almost convinced of a drop to $210 and lower instead XBT/USD choosed to avoid my bearish scenario of sub $200 prices.
What could this mean? Well i think that the drop from the 2013 all time top is over and this market just entered in a prolonged sideways move where it appears to withstand the high selling pressure that has characterized the correction since the all time top; this long term accumulation should resolve in a big upward movement later this year or at max in the first part of 2016.
What i’d like to see now is a smoother move above $300 rather then a violent price spike that most of the time resolve itself in a further drop. A constant rise will also allow my long term moving average to finally turn bullish and convince me to average down my long term position of June 2014.
To invalidate my new bullish bias XBT/USD have to move below $210 this summer.