Long Term Update

Two months ago in my previous update i was skeptic to see a bullish reaction and i was almost convinced of a drop to $210 and lower instead XBT/USD choosed to avoid my bearish scenario of sub $200 prices.

What could this mean? Well i think that the drop from the 2013 all time top is over and this market just entered in a prolonged sideways move where it appears to withstand the high selling pressure that has characterized the correction since the all time top; this long term accumulation should resolve in a big upward movement later this year or at max in the first part of 2016.

What i’d like to see now is a smoother move above $300 rather then a violent price spike that most of the time resolve itself in a further drop. A constant rise will also allow my long term moving average to finally turn bullish and convince me to average down my long term position of June 2014.

To invalidate my new bullish bias XBT/USD have to move below $210 this summer.


16 thoughts on “Long Term Update

  1. Cookie Dough

    What do you think about the bank closure in Greece? Could it have an impact on the prices of bitcoin?

    1. It’s worth noting that the price of Bitcoin spiked just when Greece problems escalated, but since the majority of Bitcoin transactions are backed by the US Dollar, not Euro, it’s not very likely that Greece will affect us in any major way. Not only that, but as far as I’ve heard- it’s actually very difficult for anyone to buy bitcoins in Greece at this time. The banks won’t allow it.

  2. Arthur

    Hi Enky, thanks as always for the update. Since you have tons of experience in the financial markets, here’s a thought about the Greece situation that I would like to share. Curious what you would think…

    Let’s presume Greece will go default, part with the Euro, introduce the drachme back and never pay back the debts they build up the last years. Several countries will loose billions and billions, and ECB will loose 89 billion Euro ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) + 26 billion Euro Greek state obligations = a total of 115 billion Euro down the drain for ECB. This will no doubt make ECB go bankrupt (virtually), right? Then, the ECB needs to go back to the countries that formed the ECB to ask for new deposits to fill up the gaps and avoid bankruptcy. These countries wouldn’t have much money anyway, having to count their own losses on Greece, and meanwhile they know that if they pump their remaining money in ECB, the value of the Euro will drop further dramatically, probably causing more defaults in Europe (Italy? Portugal?).

    Presuming such a scenario is likely, or at least it will cause a dramatic shake out and turmoil in the financial world, then people will no doubt fled from investments in Euro to other investments. Gold? Diamonds? Platinum? Silver? Bitcoin (for a tiny part anyway)? Just a thought…

    1. flavius

      I don’t think so. ECB will not go bankrupt over 115b. That’s nothing, they are printing roughly this much every two months. But Greece will not be out of euro anyway 🙂

  3. An Avid Coiner

    The ECB isn’t going to go bankrupt. And the ECB won’t ask member states for more collateral because they have none to give. If anything, it’s to ECB’s advantage not to order more collateral in order to cheapen their currency (to spur on capital in-flows to Europe). Just my not-so-humble opinion.

  4. skuffone

    Enky, I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. We must look outside TA and emotions to seek a rational investment decision, BTC is effected by USD strength as you can see by my chart – https://www.tradingview.com/x/UiGsqVxW/. If we make new highs on DXY we cannot ignore the pressure this will have on Bitcoin.

  5. George

    Hi Enky
    Love reading your posts and updates
    Would like more info on your strategies and approach for determining price targets and conditions for entry or exit etc
    I do invest in Bitcoin as well as other financial instruments including shares though Would really appriciate your thoughts and ideas perhaps to compliment my investment strategy. Thanks

      1. B.Mums

        My bad, must be the app I use. I use AndChat. I’m finally able to reconnect now after a week or so of it timing out non-stop.

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