Long Term Update: at resistance?

From my previous update: “..About the recent prolonged period of low volatility i’m observing an increased volume activity among all the biggest bitcoin exchanges, this let me think that bitcoin is probably accumulating to later break the trading range and move above $250. This break would be confirmed with a positive reading of the Chaikin Indicator..”

Well at the end it happened and a volatility increase in the right direction moved XBTUSD above the trading range ($210-$245), it is interesting to observe that a very strong volatility peak happened on October 22 but instead of topping this market continued to push upward (observe below chart),
chart
at this point i think that an intermediate top might happen with a second volatility peak probably within November 10th.

At resistance?

Checking price levels it seems that it’ll be hard to pass $320-$330, the 1Year Vwap is at $264 and the 2nd positive deviation line stands at $323, only %5 chance to move above in the short term despite this i think that a final top might happen at or below $400 before a strong correction will take place. If i’m wrong a strong support lies between the VWAP and $280 (where it happened the first volatility peak).
bitstampUSD 3 Day #1 2015-10-29 17_33_14.988

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14 thoughts on “Long Term Update: at resistance?

  1. Frank

    Glad to see an update, nice to see some fireworks after a boring few months. Still accumulating though . 330 broken is broken on Finex, still no time to average down Enky?

  2. Arthur

    Thanks Enky! I’m impressed by the trade volumes we see now. Over 900 million dollars in just 24 hours. 90% of that is coming from China. Has anyone a clue what’s going on over there?

      1. Michael

        It’s an old rumor, but where does it come from? They don’t have trading fees, so there’s no penalty for opening trades and making a quick profit. Probably a lot of people are daytrading there, which could explain the high volume, i think.

    1. Arthur

      So far several resistance levels have been broken almost as if they didn’t exist. It took a breather every $50-$60 and on we went. Last time I checked Bitstamp just broke $500. Looks like we have a genuine bull run going on. If so, and we take late 2013 as an example, this might end at a bull run top in the neighbourhood of $3,000…

  3. Michael

    Enky, after your short update on 5 November where you said $290-$320, bitcoin dropped to $351 on Bitfinex and $336 on BTCe. Do you still think the price will drop further? In short: i’m impatient for your next update 😉

  4. JJ

    Thanks for the updates. Bitcoin went a wee bit higher than we all expected. With the MMM ponzi, EU classing it as currency and China tightening controls, this probably affected the price a little. Who knew it would have such a bull run to 500!
    What are your next targets for bottom and top? I think your 290 – 330 bottom is reasonable, however it could go even lower imo. Anyways thanks again. Awaiting your next post. (And the next bull run)

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