Long Term Update

I decided to average down my position because XBTUSD is moving up from the newly formed higher low and this is the confirm that a new uptrend has begun. I was expecting a low in the $290-$300 price zone but bitcoin did the bottom at around $360 after the Mike Hearn news of mid January. This is very bullish IMO, a strong higher low despite a bad news and concerns about the blocksize debate.

I attach here a template i use for a weekly chart, the platform is Metatrader 4. As you can see I’ve drawn a long term price channel starting from an interpolation of current uptrend (green line) and deviation lines based on the average true range, another way to measure volatility. Extrapolating current weekly upswing i think the maximum target should be around $600 by the end of march. In the lower pane of the chart there is an interesting oscillator, OSMA, now moving to bullish territory.

If i’m wrong then this market will fail to establish a new higher high and will probably move down to the first negative line at around $290-$300, an important support area.



21 thoughts on “Long Term Update

    1. Enky

      I don’t consider ANY altcoins or similar, bitcoin is more then enough. Regarding eth for me is a competitor of bitcoin, and thus a new enemy. The recent eth pump in prices? probably orchestrated by a single entity trying to divert the interest of the investment community from bitcoin to eth, an effort well timed now that btc has to resolve the blocksize issue.

    2. Arthur

      May I humbly add that my crypto investments consist of Bitcoin, MaidSafeCoin and a little Ethereum. Currently Ethereum is the best performer, long term I’m expecting more of MaidSafeCoin though. Furthermore I think they are not competitors. They serve different markets, and together they could be the big three of the crypto future. My 2cents… Also I think spreading some risk is wise, as one would do with stocks (which is not the best investment currently lol).

  1. Frank

    Thanks again for sharing Enky. Has this current bullish sentiment changed your outlook for 2016 and your possible exit strategy?

    1. Enky

      The exit strategy for my long term investment consist of 2 events:
      1)a severe drop in network hashing speed
      2)price below $270 for at least 3 months

      the outlook is the same of january
      “….btc has an high probability to stay inside the $277-$760 price range….” eventually i might decide to sell at above 750$

      1. Michael

        Block halving is expected sometime around the middle of July (see http://bitcoinclock.com/). When the reward for miners drops by 50%, i wonder if the hash rate will also drop by 50% because of miners quitting. Do you think it has an effect on price? (I assume in point 1 you meant an *unexpected* drop in hashing speed. Block halving is expected).

      2. Enky

        hash speed will not drop by 50% don’t worry. the effect is positive because bitcoin’s inflation will drop from 9% to 4% reducing the gap with fiat currencies.

  2. Pete

    Nick Szabo stated on a podcast that Ethereum is the most decentralized way to do smart contracts. Ethereum IS a better coin. Come on now… it’s been 7 years and were still ONLY at a 8/9 billion dollar market cap. miners running classic are getting DoS attacked. This also happened with XT. and true be told, I don’t like the direct bitcoin is going in. It only takes the users to shift there funds away from bitcoin and into a better coin. This analogy happened in the social networking space when users fled my space by the millions and into Facebook. I think ethereum should at the least be bought as an insurance policy.

    1. Enky

      better coin based on what? Sorry but i’m a bit skeptic that btc developers are all retards compared to vitalin and his stuff; not to mention the network speed that is 1/millionth of btc, 0.85 terahash against 1.11 millions terahash/sec for btc. Decentralized app contracts? it has to be seen if it will get traction or not in the industry, you can’t automate everything companies sometimes need real people and as i said not everything can be automated with a decentralized script running on eth network. It might offer more then btc but don’t tell me that it is a better coin, actually is worst because of a very low network speed; offering more doesn’t mean it is better.
      The real reason of the pump in eth are bitcoin traders who use altcoins like this to pump and dump back into btcs to increase their btc stake and it’s ok if you are willing to take the risks to trade on small and less safe exchanges that offer btc/eth. Once btc would have resolved the block size issue these kind of altcoins will tank again as there is no reason for them to exist.

  3. Arthur

    Just sharing my observation/prediction: Ethereum just reached his new ATH just above $10 but in the next 1-2 months it will correct and return to ‘normal’ levels below $5. In the same period it will be the times for Bitcoin to show its power, that it is the coin that rules them all. Ethereum might have taken a lot of attention (and money) away from Bitcoin last 2 months resulting in a mega bubble for Ethereum, but that’s over now.

    I’ve seen it before, some altcoins racing before Bitcoin does. Like Enky said: “bitcoin traders who use altcoins like this to pump and dump back into btcs to increase their btc stake”.

    1. Enky

      Dunno Arthur, i think is better to never understimate the fact that Sheep are flock animals and traders at poloniex exchange are sheep:) The orderbook is still bullish so i think we might see a final push with a classic buying climax bar marking the top.

      1. Arthur

        Well Enky, when I use a classic Elliot Wave pattern and its guidelines on the Ethereum charts, I humbly think we might have seen the (1) to (5) impulse waves already. (1) was 0,002 XBT to 0,0075 XBT (Jan. 11 – Jan. 26), then (2) a flat correction till Feb. 6 followed by (3) jump to 0,0175 on Feb 12 and (4) sharp correction to 0,0085 on Feb. 18, which didn’t break jump (1). (5) would have been the final jump to 0,0238 on March 3 (yesterday). Also remember, Ethereum is only on the market for 8 months, its price went 35-40 fold since IPO. I don’t remember Bitcoin doing 40 fold in one year, or extending bull runs beyond 2 months… But yeah, crazy things happen. And Elliot Wave is just a theory, with history being history lol. With Ethereum currently hoovering in the low 0,02 and not looking like it’s ready yet to dump and break 0,02 downwards, you might be right…

      2. Enky

        This time is different, bitcoin was fueled by fiat currency, eth mostly of the time is bought with btcs and there are plenty of btc out there ready to be quickly and easily invested in ETH. 95% of the volume on eth is in btcs not usd.
        Regarding Elliott yes, i agree, we could have seen the fifth and last wave yesterday.

      3. Pete

        I agree with Enky, we have a mature bitcoin market now which means that market is quite fluid and can move easily into other crypto currencies. Etherum is more than an orchestrated pump and dump to me, the market cap is nearing the billion mark at present. Only stupid people would put that kind of money into an alt-coin without it having a genuine use or potential for the future. Etherum has better cryptology, it can handle x4 more transaction than bitcoin and it can do smart contracts, and it’s small enough to make even more significant changes and avoid bitcoin’s mistakes. For all the people that have a genuine use for bitcoin and are finding that their transactions are getting stuck they can switch over to Etherum.

      4. Arthur

        Poor bitcoin is suffering a little while Ethereum is marching on (a quick and dirty Elliott Wave calculation tells me it could go to $17-$18 zone before serious correction).

        But what are the thoughts here for the Bitcoin price in the upcoming 1-2 months? I think it will hold kinda strong, because there is also buying pressure on Bitcoin caused by the new people entering the crypto market looking to grab some Ethereum. They have to follow the Bitcoin route…

      5. Pete

        We have to keep an eye out for changing Dynamics too. Poloinex has just made a serious name for itself now with all this Ether buying and has managed to be very profession with near 100% up time with heavy traffic. This will be to the dismay to all the VC money that went into Bitcoin exchanges. If the Ether shenanigans continues than major Bitcoin exchanges are going to let you buy Ether directly with cash and this is going to add to the shit storm. Kraken has already added Ether, how long before Bitstamp and other major exchanges do?

      6. Arthur

        Pete, in fact you can. If I remember well they host at least USD, EUR and CAD.

        Meanwhile Bitcoin dipped below $400 but seems to recover. I really wonder what the Bitcoin VC people will think when they turn their PCs on on Monday morning…

      7. Pete

        Another thing that scares me is that since the market cap of bitcoin hit 6 to 10 billion it is harder to manipulate by the whales and the whales are mostly Chinese miners. What if they have intentionally created this dead end situation in Bitcoin so that they can move to a new coin like Etherum. Now the exchange all their bitcoin into ether and with a small enough market cap they will start pumping the price and manipulating to their will.

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