I decided to average down my position because XBTUSD is moving up from the newly formed higher low and this is the confirm that a new uptrend has begun. I was expecting a low in the $290-$300 price zone but bitcoin did the bottom at around $360 after the Mike Hearn news of mid January. This is very bullish IMO, a strong higher low despite a bad news and concerns about the blocksize debate.
I attach here a template i use for a weekly chart, the platform is Metatrader 4. As you can see I’ve drawn a long term price channel starting from an interpolation of current uptrend (green line) and deviation lines based on the average true range, another way to measure volatility. Extrapolating current weekly upswing i think the maximum target should be around $600 by the end of march. In the lower pane of the chart there is an interesting oscillator, OSMA, now moving to bullish territory.
If i’m wrong then this market will fail to establish a new higher high and will probably move down to the first negative line at around $290-$300, an important support area.