Long Term Update: weekly chart

XBTUSD is basically flat and my support/resistance price levels are unchanged (currently $375-$430) although price tends slightly lower after a failed attempt to break above $420 last week.


This is the same template i proposed in the last update with just a shorter period used for the average and its deviation lines. The Osma indicator is still slightly weak, also the 2 months VWAP is at $405 and flat.

In this situation the best strategy, for a short term trader, is to trade the deviation lines without relying too much on timing indicators or in simple words just buy the supports and sell the resistances.

I was expecting a stronger up swing but XBTUSD entered a sideways movement that to end requires a breakout somewhere above $430 or below $375. I’m reading many bitcoin traders analysis, most of them bearish because of the block size issue but at the moment i prefer to remain neutral about it.

12 thoughts on “Long Term Update: weekly chart

  1. Christian A also know as testianer

    Thanks for the update, Enky!

    Do you think it’s likely we’ll see sub-400 soon?

    1. Enky

      frankly i dunno, it is so flat that i can’t say, most agree with you because of blocksize almost full they see black for btc but i stay neutral for now.

  2. flavius

    I think we are in a hidden bullish position right now. Let me explain:
    1) Blocksize debate. Despite all the drama I think what happened it is very positive. Bitcoin is a cryptographic software project on a huge scale. Still it is a software project and should be managed as such. The developers are the most qualified people to make suggestions and the miners should keep them in check not to make any irrational, risky and in short bad decisions for Bitcoin’s future. And this is exactly what happened. I’m against hard fork right now for several reasons. First it’s risky. The network is not ready for it. There are things that can go wrong and we cannot take any chances because this is a $6b economy. Second it does not solve the issue at hand. Ok maybe solves it but only for a year or so. What do we do next year? Make it 4MB? At 2MB it will already show the weakness of slow block propagation at 4 it would be a mess. And third and most importantly, it does NOT solve the problem unless the miners raise the limit themselves and they are by no means forced to do such thing. The actual limit may be 1, 2, 20 32MB … but it’s still a max suggested limit which is by no means enforced. So what could happen, we raise it to 2MB, all goes smoothly, everybody upgrades and miners start to get sluggish at transferring blocks so they limit it to say 1.5MB to get less orphans. Hm, wait a minute, what do we do next year then, when we need 4MB blocks…
    SegWit a software optimisation that fixes many rough edges around Bitcoin. Makes it easily upgradeable, more efficient, help it scale easier and yeah it may be complex and needs some time to develop but if we avoid complexity at all cost we’d better stay in stone age. It must have been pretty simple back then. Core developers are doing amazing job improving Bitcoin while we have time to update it (check change-log of 0.12 release), keep in mind at some point Bitcoin will unavoidable become impossible to upgrade, that’s why we need to make it rock solid at layer 1 and build a million apps that depend on it on layer 2.

    2) Reward halving – pretty self explanatory, inflation is cut in half. And about the miners shutting off their miners bullshit… they were profitable at $220, will be profitable even at this price ($420) and the halving comes.

    3) OpenBazaar – I think this has the potential to be one of the major Bitcoin apps. Should launch in November, now in realtime beta.

    1. Enky

      Yes, i noticed that triangle too and as i said in the past years a symmetrical triangle usually is broken to the upside if the underlying trend is bullish.

      1. Michael

        Would you say that if the price breaks support of the triangle, it’s a sell signal? Or do you prefer to use the moving average as shown in the chart with this article? I’m also looking at the OKcoin chart and it has already broken support, even though Bitfinex hasn’t.

  3. Michael

    I noticed that the VWAPs in your last two charts don’t look the same. Are there any other settings that affect what the line looks like, other than the period? I don’t think i’ve noticed such a difference before in your charts.

    1. Enky

      it changes because of new data coming in, for a one year vwap it doesn’t change much with only few days of new data but for a 7 days vwap it is different. Keep in mind that in a sideways market it tends to be more stable the vwap

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