XBTUSD touched my weekly resistance at around $480, i think this resistance is temporary and considering the huge amount of volatility increase there are chance to see higher prices ahead. It’s time to switch to a weekly chart to better understand where is the first decent resistance .
Above you can see a weekly chart of XBTUSD using an average of 5 exchanges. I plotted the bollinger bands and highlighted 3 breakout bars on point 1,3,4.
XBTUSD did a first breakout bar above the upper bollinger band on mid July 2015 (point 1 on the chart) but immediately turned back inside the bar, typical bearish pattern. At this point a bearish reaction started and ended at the lower bollinger band (point 2 on the chart) .
From here the true movement started with a clean breakout bar (Nov. 2015 point 3 on the chart).
Now we are seeing the same breakout bar (point 4 on the chart) but i can’t say yet if it is a legit or a fake one. Judging from what happened since Jan of this year with XBTUSD doing a long sequence of higher lows i’m tempted to say that this market is strong and probably it will break above 500 dollars; the next 1-2 weeks are crucial to see if this breakout is valid or not.
In january i was telling you that a good resistance for the whole year was $760 and it is still valid, there is 1% possibility to move above $760, 5% to go above $630 and 30% to pass $550. In case of a strong move above $500 the possible targets are these.