Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD Daily Chart Bitfinex
XBTUSD Daily Chart Bitfinex

XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $610-$735 | daily moving average is bearish and main support is at VWAP near $610. XBTUSD is resisting above the VWAP after a quick test below the support i mentioned in the previous update around $585, support broken but quickly regained.

Resistance price zone is $735-860, i think that XBTUSD should remain above $610 but if it starts to spend too much time below it then i think that a new low is ahead in the support price zone $485-$610 with the RSI oscillator that which will probably become oversold by then.

Italian version here at Bitchanger


Short Term Update

imageThe updated chart shows how the VWAP dynamic support (calculated with two months of data) coincides with an old resistance now turned support. I think this will be a key support to be observed in the coming days and will tell us if the bullish move has finished or not.

Because of high volatility the support area is big and XBTUSD is right in the middle, RSI is giving a sell signal this doesn’t mean a drop instead XBTUSD might go lateral for few weeks before resuming the uptrend. Any weakness below $580 would be interpreted as a definitive end of the current big upswing.

Italian version here at bitchanger.

Weekly Range Update

2201XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $725-$870 | daily moving average is bulllish and main support is at VWAP near $580. XBTUSD continues to stay all the time above the first positive deviation line of the VWAP, a bullish behaviour.

In case of a strong price correction i’m looking at the $580 support as an interesting buying zone where to further increase my long-term position; position with a size of 3 units (150 btc) at an average price of $549.

Italian version of this update here at Bitchanger.

Thank You

Since May 2016 I’ve seen a strong Bitcoin price rally after the breakout of the $500 resistance.

“Move fast for profit regardless security and customer satisfaction” may be applied to companies but not for a true decentralized cryptocurrency like Bitcoin.

I want to thank Bitcoin Core for the very conservative approach to its development. Core has been doing a supreme job maintaining the reference client, making sure that the network is running smoothly and insuring that the 11 billions $ market cap doesn’t decline due to bugs in the software because of developers negligency like happened today to another altcoin.

Thanks again for doing a great job.

Project maintainers


  • Dr. Pieter Wuille

  • Cory Fields

  • Gregory Maxwell

  • Luke-Jr

  • Jorge Timón

  • Peter Todd

  • Patrick Strateman

  • Dr. Johnson Lau

  • Suhas Daftuar

  • ฿tcDrak

  • Michael Ford

  • paveljanik

Mid-Week Range Update

XBTUSD Daily Chart @bitfinex
XBTUSD Daily Chart @bitfinex

XBT/USD range till sunday $650-$770 | daily moving average is bulllish and main support is at VWAP near $540 but as i said earlier this week when the market is strong usually the first positive deviation line is very good as support, now at $650.

The odds now are for a retracement, i suggest to observe market behaviour around the alma moving average and first vwap dev.line both at around 650 dollars.

Weekly Range Update

weekly range enXBT/USD weekly range.forecast $610-$800 | daily moving average is firmly bulllish and main support is at VWAP near $520 although when the market is strong usually the first positive deviation line act as main support; now at $615.

In my previous weekly range update i was thinking that XBTUSD was going to add another 50$-60$  in the current up-cycle and it happened. Right now i’m observing market behaviour around the static resistance of $680, apparently XBTUSD is going to break this resistance and skip the scenario of a substantial price correction.

Aniway in case of a strong price correction i’m looking at the $520 support as an interesting buying zone where to buy the dip.


Long Term update: Static Resistance

Monthly Chart


This is a simple monthly chart since Jan.2012, important facts are:

  • Accumulation zone #2 is above previous one, #1 in the chart
  • The static resistance at $680 is also the 50% of the price swing from the all time high down to the 2015 bottom at ~$150

As i explained in past updates the midpoint or 50% it is one of the strongest and most important resistance/support level. The main trend is obviously up (at least so far) because the low around point 2 in the chart is above point 1 thus is legit to expect a new all time high if this market can break above the $680 static resistance.

Furthermore the fact that the two accumulation zones highlighted in the chart never overlap tell us that the underline long term trend is very strong and because of this i expect a new all time high in case of a strong breakout above $680.

Forecasting resistances


This is a template i use for long term analysis with metatrader 4 platform, first i compute a price regression with 12 or 24 bars/months with a monthly chart then i compute supports and resistances. Dotted lines represents supports/resistances using the recent volatility of XBTUSD, non-dotted lines are levels computed using twice the value of recent bitcoin volatility.

We are exactly at the resistance and this is very interesting because in 1-2 months we will see if bitcoin long term trend is still up or not.

I have taken in account the log-normal distribution of price otherwise i’d have had very bad results in computing the levels, usually it is not required but when prices movements are so high you have to. What does it mean? It’s simple, before doing any calculation first compute the natural log of the price, do your stuff and last reexponentiate the data to have back the price chart with a linear scale.
This is why i do not recommend to use standard bollinger bands with bitcoin on a long term chart, you would have bad results, sometimes with the lower bollinger band going negative! clearly unrealistic.





Weekly Range Update

BTCUSD daily chart

XBT/USD weekly range.forecast $540-$650 | daily moving average is still bulllish after the strong spike. Support is at VWAP near $480. Volatility remains high togheter with RSI oscillator now at 92.
Although support is at VWAP near $480 i think that $540 should hold in case of a retracement.

I think that XBTUSD will probably add another 50$-60$  in the current up-cycle before a substantial correction takes place.

In case of a price correction i’m looking at the $480-$540 price range as an interesting buying zone although as i said before $540 should hold.

Italian version of this article here at bitchanger.com