Long Term Update: Weekly Top Forecast

Weekly Chart – Price regression channel + Dev.Lines

It’s pretty obvious that XBTUSD is staying above the central line of the price channel shown in the weekly chart. The low of 5 weeks ago caused by bitcoin unlimited has been made above the midline of the channel and this is a bullish indication.

As you know, this indicator calculates a regression on past prices and projects resistance and support lines using the average volatility of the underlying asset, if there is sudden shift in volatility the indicator will try to adapt to this new information coming in and the deviation lines will change accordingly.

If volatility change is not dramatic the calculated resistance and support lines will remain fairly stable; at the moment the new resistance area where the next top might occur is between ~1250$ and ~1410$.

As a side note i’d like to add some words about the next top, it is very important to make it above the previous one to confirm the underlying bullish tendency; if bitcoin fails and moves below 890$ the implications would be bearish enough to see a minimum just above 700$.

ITA version here.

Weekly Price Range Update

XBTUSD daily chart – VWAP + deviation levels

XBT / USD weekly price range is 1150$-1335$ | The market is still in a strong position above the VWAP and is near the resistance level of the previous week (1235$), if a break materializes above the first resistance level at 1245$ there is room for an attack to the all-time high around 1350 $; as support to my hypothesis there is the fact that the last two bottoms happened at 750$ and 900$, two higher lows reflecting the fact that the underlying trend is still firmly upward and it is causing higher highs and lows. With this logic the next maximum should be above 1300$-1350$.

The ALMA average is bullish and the RSI has entered overbought zone. From now on there is a tangible risk that a maximum on the daily chart is forming especially if there is a strong increase of volatility.

In cases of extreme drop the support area is now 700-875 USD.

ITA version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD daily chart - VWAP Lines
XBTUSD daily chart – VWAP Lines

XBT / USD weekly price range is 1050$-1230$ | The market moved back to a strong position firmly above the VWAP level and it is close to a first level of resistance at 1140$, I think that there is room to reach the second resistance level at 1230$.

The average ALMA returned bullish and the RSI has moved away from the oversold area exactly what I was expecting last week: a positive reaction.
About altcoins i know that many of you are interested but i consider them too small for a proper and reliable analysis, in fact also bitcoin isn’t enough big; because of this for the time being there will be sporadic updates about altcoins.

In cases of extreme fall the support area is 670$-860$.
ITA version here.