Long Term Update: Weekly Top Forecast

Weekly Chart – Price regression channel + Dev.Lines

It’s pretty obvious that XBTUSD is staying above the central line of the price channel shown in the weekly chart. The low of 5 weeks ago caused by bitcoin unlimited has been made above the midline of the channel and this is a bullish indication.

As you know, this indicator calculates a regression on past prices and projects resistance and support lines using the average volatility of the underlying asset, if there is sudden shift in volatility the indicator will try to adapt to this new information coming in and the deviation lines will change accordingly.

If volatility change is not dramatic the calculated resistance and support lines will remain fairly stable; at the moment the new resistance area where the next top might occur is between ~1250$ and ~1410$.

As a side note i’d like to add some words about the next top, it is very important to make it above the previous one to confirm the underlying bullish tendency; if bitcoin fails and moves below 890$ the implications would be bearish enough to see a minimum just above 700$.

ITA version here.


4 thoughts on “Long Term Update: Weekly Top Forecast

  1. Michael

    There are fiat withdrawal problems at Bitfinex. I guess it drives people to convert their fiat to BTC and then withdraw from the exchange, which would explain the $70 price difference between Finex and other exchanges, but it also makes BTC price at the other exchanges go up (arbitrage). It might just do the trick of pushing BTC over the previous ATH. 🙂

  2. Michael

    Is that BTC-e data in the chart? What do you consider “the previous top” that BTC has to move beyond? On Bitstamp for example there was a candlestick that peaked at 1350 USD on 10 March, while the high on BTC-e was 1270 that day.

    1. i consider an average of different exchange, it is already above previous top so good news:) i don’t consider the volatility of the 10 march, prev top for me is that one of 3 march

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