Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range at 2100$-2900$ | The VWAP is just below 1700$ and the XBTUSD cross is always above it confirming mid-term bullishness.

I have told you many times that when a market is in a very strong position it can move between the first and second price deviation line except for rare cases where it can be between the second and the third line.
From a couple of days back it’s above the second price deviation line and I think that the current rally will continue pushing the bitcoin towards 2900$.

The average of the RSI oscillator is just below the overbought area and I think that bitcoin will ignore this indicator that may remain overbought for a certain period of time due to the fact that the dominant timeframe is the weekly one and as mentioned earlier I think this aspect can push bitcoin over the previous maximum of 2750$.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1050-1450 USD.

ITA version here.

2 thoughts on “Weekly Range Update

  1. Michael

    First of all, thanks for another update.

    In your yearly long term update you said it would be difficult for XBTUSD to go higher than 2900 USD. It is almost at that price now. A few updates ago you also said that a correction is to be expected but that the typical high volatility was not there yet. Now we have higher volatility.

    Taking these two things into account, do you think we’re in for a big correction according to the “extreme fall” scenario, or possibly that we’re at the top of a multi-year bull run and we might see a long decline from here, like after December 2013?

    1. Good question but i think that we aren’t at the top of a multi year bull market, the 2900$ resistance represent a level computed using historical volatility up to january 2017 with 68% probability to don’t break it (1 std deviation). Bitcoin might go above 2900 and it would mean that it would be very well priced. I haven’t computed at that time (january 2017) the resistance level using TWICE the value of historical volatility but it should be something around 6k usd. Between 3k and 6k usd btc would be very well priced and above 6k btc would be in a bubble.
      What to do now depends on how much an investor want to risk, to keep the risk very low it’s wise to reduce a long position now, otherwise just hold.

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