Short Term Update: Entering Resistance Price Zone

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBTUSD just break out above the resistance level i pointed out yesterday, This is a good news and we have avoided the slightly bearish scenario I had suggested yesterday. It’s crucial now to confirm the breakout avoiding to move below 4460$.

Yesterday i said also that usually the RSI doesn’t go below 50 during a strong uptrend and that’s exactly what happened, a rebound from the level of 50.

Now the resistance level for this week is updated to 5200$ or the third deviation line of the VWAP and i’m pretty sure that it’ll not reach the 4th deviation line at 5900$ as it never happened in all bitcoin history.

Weekly Update

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-08-28 07_47_50.317
XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 3700$-4460$ | The XBTUSD cross slowed its rise last week togheter with a volatility contraction, failing to break through the all time high at 4480$.

However, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a strong position staying all the time above the first positive price deviation line of the VWAP, but i’ve to notice that for more than ten days it has stayed below the second price deviation line now at 4460$, which is precisely a sign of slowdown.

At this point I think the XBTUSD can make a correction with a strong support located at 3700$ this week or next, this support level should stop any further weakness, I do not expect a VWAP test at 3000$.

The average of the RSI oscillator went below the threshold level of 70, giving a theoretical sell signal, but the RSI is at 50, an intermediate value that normally acts as support during strong upward trends as I have said many times in the past.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 2150-2700 USD.
ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 3450$-4700$ | In the previous update, I was expecting an increase to 4800$ but the market retraced back to the second VWAP deviation line, I still think there is the will to move up but as maximum resistance for this week there is the third deviation line at 4700$.

The correction that has been seen from 4400$ to 4000$ is not uncommon in a bullish trend but further weakness could bring price down to the first deviation line at around 3400$ which I consider a good entry point where to buy.

As I explained in the past in a very strong market the RSI tends to approach the threshold of 70 without crossing below it, here we are in a similar situation with the RSI average moving towards 70 and the RSI itself already just above 70.

To conclude this week is somewhat important to see if there is still the possibility to do a new ATH or not in the short term.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 2000$-2600$.

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ITA version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 3200$-4800$ | Our beloved cross pair XBTUSD is showing strength and it will probably test for the first time ever the fourth price deviation line of the 2 months VWAP that I normally don’t use, this 4th line defines the upper bound of the resistance zone ranging from 4200 to 4800 dollars.

I think that XBTUSD cross could reach 4800 dollars this week or the next one considering that all the cryptocurrencies sector is going up massively with bitcoin taking the lead and rising with the fastest speed. Market is appreciating the recent efforts to improve bitcoin’s capacity.

The average RSI oscillator has returned above the overbought area and it will probably stay between 70 and 95-100 when bitcoin is so strong, ALMA moving average is bullish since the bottom of  mid July.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1900-2400 USD

Long Term Update: approaching resistance area

Weekly Chart XBTUSD composite index of 7 exchanges

I include in this long-term update the template I mainly use with the tradingview platform that includes my KAMA average with deviation lines tuned for XBTUSD currency pair.
You can see that this currency cross is entering an interesting resistance zone ranging from 3200 to 3900 dollars; I included in the chart also the 2 months VWAP average and the 1 year too.
The average VWAP at 2 months is slightly above the 5 periods KAMA average while the 1-year VWAP is slowly rising and has come close to the negative deviation lines, around 1260 dollars.

It will be interesting to see the behavior of the next few weeks to see if this rise is just a spike or a solid trend, in the latter case it could mean that this year we could also see prices over 4000$, to understand this we will have to wait at least four weeks or this month.

Price range for this week is 2950$-3450$ with ALMA average firmly up and the RSI oscillator not yet overbought.