Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range at 3070$-4300$ | The situation is unchanged compared to the previous week, the market is flat as well as the 2 months VWAP and basically also the ALMA average, slightly negative almost flat.

By now you all know that more or less after a week of volatility contraction bitcoin breaks up/down with a peak of volatility; I expect soon an increase in volatility that will soon resolve this neutral phase that the XBTUSD cross is going through, the hard part is that i can’t say which direction it’ll take.

Investors seem to have digested the negative news of this month, first China then the negative comments of traditional bankers, all these efforts to push the price down ended with a bottom at 3000 dollars, we can consider this price level an important level of support for the weeks to come.

RSI, as I said last week, has already given a buy signal on the daily chart, which is also confirmed by its average which is on the rise, but this is the only positive note in a still uncertain picture.

A rise to 4200 dollars is not enough to confirm a reversal of the trend, you have to see strength above 4300 dollars to be able to say that even on the weekly chart has reversed the current bearish trend, however for those who want to try to anticipate the market could try a short-term upward operation with stop loss below 3500$ and target price around 4200-4300$.

In the event of a catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart remains unchanged at 2000-2500 US Dollars.

ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-09-18 09_48_01.095
XBTUSD Daily Chart – VWAP Levels

XBT/USD weekly price range at 3650$-4300$ | As I wrote on twitter the market found support within the support area of my previous update that had a lower limit of $2800. I would like to point out that I will not increase my long-term position opened between 2014 and 2015, but I will tell you when there will be a buying opportunity.

Today’s reaction is positive and I believe that in 1-2 days the ALMA moving average will turn upwards together with the average of the RSI oscillator.

The RSI has already given a purchase signal, but it is better to confirm it when its average slope will also turn positive.
When these conditions are met we will have a buying opportunity.

In the event of a catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart remains unchanged at 2000-2500 US Dollars.

ITA version here.

Short Term Update: updated weekly range

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Daily Chart XBTUSD VWAP levels

Updated weekly range is 2800$-4300$ | For the first time in many months the XBTUSD cross is testing the VWAP volume average calculated using the last two months of daily data.
This is certainly a sign of a slowdown in the current upward trend, it is important to see how long prices will remain around the VWAP average, which today stands at around $3600, a quickly reaction to the upside from here would mean that this market is still very strong and resilient to all attacks it is receiving since September.

From here to Sunday there could also be a quick visit to the first negative deviation line located at 2800$ but looking at the weekly chart there seems to be room for a minimum in October around $2500, in any case later this month I will publish a long term update to better understand where we might have the next medium term bottom using the weekly chart and not the daily chart more suitable for short-term price movements. This mid-term bottom must be ABOVE the previous one of 1800$ happened in July ’17 in order to mantain a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

The RSI oscillator enters the oversold zone after several weeks with its average just above the oversold threshold located at 30, this may mean that a short rebound of few days is ahead, typical after abrupt downward movements.

Overall I think that the XBTUSD cross can hardly lose more than 50% of its value in a single movement, this would mean strong support at $2500.

Short Tem Update: KAMA Levels

KAMA Levels
KAMA Levels

XBT/USD weekly price range at 4000$-4950$ | The price range for this week is not very different from last week, we have seen until now a weak September with the price drop from the all time high of 5000$ and despite several negative news the XBTUSD has remained above 4000 dollars.
As you can see in the graph the support area using my KAMA indicator ranges from $3600 to $4000, the resistance zone from $4950 to $5350.
If the 4000$ support will work, then an upward cycle with a minimum target of 4950$ could start, otherwise the 2-month VWAP around 3400$ is an important support.
I think it’s unlikely to see bitcoin under the vwap at 2 months for this and also next week, otherwise it would mean that on the weekly chart a medium-long term correction has started; however it’s still early to say and let see if XBTUSD can stay above $4000 this week.

In case of a unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is 2000-2500 USD

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range at 4000$-4850$ |The XBTUSD cross has seen a correction during the weekend moving back below the second line of price deviation, I see as important support for this week the price level at 4000 dollars, for those who are willing to buy I would suggest to observe the behavior of the XBTUSD cross around that level.
As already mentioned in the previous update, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a strong position and has been long standing above the VWAP’s first line of deviation and that therefore these corrections are not worrying if limited to 2-3 days.

The average of the RSI oscillator is above the threshold of 70, confirming that the bearish signal of August 26-27 was a false signal as I assumed previously. This indicator is not recently giving clear indications because despite all XBTUSD is maintaining an upward trend without excessive volatility, elements that compromise the proper functioning of any technical oscillator.

In the event of an extreme fall, the support area is 2300-2800 USD

ITA version here.