Weekly Range Update: at resistance

XBTUSD Daily Chart – VWAP and dev. levels

XBT/USD weekly price range 7600$-10700$ | The 2-month VWAP is now at 6600$, the resistance zone ranges from 9600$ to 10700$ and is defined by the 3rd and 4th price deviation line.
XBTUSD begins the week at a resistance level, however this pair has proven that it is not impossible to reach the fourth positive deviation line above VWAP, it has already happened on November 8th.

The support area ranges from 6600$ to 7600$ and is defined by VWAP and the 1st deviation line.

In the event of a strong profit taking, I think it is very difficult to see a test down to the VWAP at 6600$, given the enormous strength of this market is much more likely that the support level at 7600$ will hold.

The RSI oscillator is clearly overbought with its average just above the threshold level of 70; these two conditions do not preclude a further boost of the market up to 10700$.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is updated to 3700-4400 USD.

ITA version here.

Offtopic: Quantitative Analysis of Altcoins, part I

In this update we will compare major altcoins towards bitcoin with the quantitative systems I use in the annual forecast that I publish in the first post of each year. Concisely we will list the volatility and gain values of these alternative assets to bitcoin. I would remind you that it is always preferable to invest in assets with low volatility and consequently high returns, volatility always deteriorates the gain of an asset.
I used weekly data, the last 52 weeks where possible. Only Bitcoin Gold hasn’t enough data for a proper computation of its quantitative values.

ALTCOIN Gain (G) Volatility (RMS)
Ethereum 0.9865 0.176
Dash 0.9862 0.188
Monero 0.979 0.1509
Litecoin 0.977 0.1511
Ethereum Classic 0.9765 0.169
Next 0.961 0.182
Ripple 0.96 0.236
Zetacash 0.951 0.1631
Stellar Lumens 0.9313 0.29
Bitcoin Cash 0.93 0.207
Qtum 0.909 0.206
Iota 0.88 0.179
Eos 0.8421 0.322
Bitcoin Gold n/a n/a

This table explains why every time you ask me an advice about altcoins, I tell you that it is better to ignore them because NO ALTCOIN shows positive gains above the unit due to the fact that they are dominated by volatility that highly reduce the final gain of the asset.
Said this, the less bad altcoins are Dash and Ethereum followed by Monero and Litecoin with a preference to these last two because of lower volatility compared to Ethereum and Dash.

A special mention to Bitcoin Cash that, considering its high market cap, both Gain and Volatility are bad.

To conclude, the big mistake is to compare altcoins to USD, in my opinion it’s wise to compare them against Bitcoin; against fiat currencies is easy to perform well.

Technical Appendix

The procedure to compute volatility and gain is always the same explained in the past:

  1. Compute log of Today bar divided by yesterday bar
  2. Average values (avg) of last 52 periods (n) (1 year using weekly data)
  3. Compute Volatility (rms)
  4. Compute price momentum probability with the formula P = (((avg / rms) – (1 / sqrt (n))) + 1) / 2
  5. Compute Gain using the formula G = ((1+rms)^P*((1-rms)^(1-P))

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range 6800$-8600$ | This week the 2-month VWAP updates to 6100$ from last week’s 4800$; new data is replacing the old ones and it may happen that you have some slight changes on the price level of the reference average.

The resistance zone ranges from 8600$ to 9800$ and is defined by the 2nd and 3rd deviation line of the 2-month VWAP.

The support area ranges from $6100 to $6800 and is defined by VWAP and an intermediate level between the VWAP and the 1st deviation line.

I think it is very difficult to see a test down to the VWAP at $6100, if there were to be some profit taking the market should not fall below $6800, considering that the RSI oscillator turned upside without testing the oversold area i still believe that this market will go over 8000$ eventually after a small correction towards our first support at 6800$.

The other template I use on Tradingview with KAMA average and deviation levels is very similar to this one; the weekly KAMA is at 5800$ not far from the 6100$ of the 2-month VWAP.
The resistance zone is 8000$-9300$, slightly lower than the one presented with this update of 8600$-9800$.
Basically we have a decent correlation between the two templates (VWAP using Sierrachart and KAMA using Tradingview. com)

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is updated to 3200-4000 USD.

ITA Version Here.

Short Term Update

Updated Weekly Range Levels

Given the good price reaction from the 5400$ bottom, I decided to update the price levels for this week to 6250$-7600$ with an extreme to $9000.

As I often say, the higher the bottom, the higher the chance is that the following top is very high and could be between 9000 and 10000 dollars, we have seen that the market almost never reaches the fourth VWAP deviation line so let’s say that a good top could be around 9000$.

The ALMA moving average isn’t yet bullish but it’s close to reverse its direction while the RSI failed to reach oversold territory and this means that the market remains very strong despite all the FUD of last week.


Weekly Range Update: returning to the mean.

XBTUSD Daily Chart

XBT/USD weekly price range 4800$-6200$ | The resistance price area run from $6200 to $7600 and is defined by the 1st and 2nd VWAP positive deviation line.

Last week I had hypothesized a correction down to the support zone between $6500 and $5400, so it was with a minimum at around $5500. I honestly expected less bearish pressure, but it is a long time that the XBTUSD cross does not return to the mean, our 2 months VWAP.

I think the correction is not over yet, most probably it’s time to test the 2 months VWAP which now is $4800. I think it is very difficult to reach the $3300 or the first negative price deviation line, this has not happened for many many months and such a drop might also help bitcoin cash to surpass bitcoin market cap, an event that could frighten the bitcoin community. Despite my personal bias about BCH I still own a part of the bitcoin cash obtained with the fork; for now I don’t sell them to help diversify my investment in cryptocurrencies during this period of high volatility and uncertainty.

The RSI oscillator would suggest a decrease but it is to be seen if it succeeds in bringing itself below 50, even here it is worth the same discourse done for the VWAP, it is a long time that the oscillator does not go into oversold territory so I would not be surprised to see it in that area during the week.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is updated to USD 3100-3700.

Many will think that the unexpected catastrophic event was the attack on bitcoin by some market forces, in this perspective I tend to disagree because we are very far from the support area calculated with 6-7.5 standard deviations. What we are seeing are the normal market forces at work among themselves, the strongest will win as well as in business in the end remains always and only one winner after a strong fight without mercy.

ITA Version here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range is 6500$-7600$ | The resistance zone ranges from $7600 to $8700 and is defined by the two deviation lines furthest from the VWAP.

I think it’s time for a correction to the first support located at $6500, the buying area for this week is from $6500 down to $5400. I think it is very difficult to reach $5400, a minimum at $6500 is much more likely and would not compromise the possibility to see a new ATH this week.

As explained many times in the past, it is important to look at where bottoms and tops are located to understand in which direction is headed our cross XBTUSD , given the great strength of the last two weeks it would be more consistent to have a minimum at $6500 rather then $5400.

To conclude the first level to observe is $6500, the next $5400 and without unexpected negative news it’s very unlikely this week to test the VWAP at $4350.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is updated to 2250-2875 USD.

Since many people asked me more details about these extreme price levels, I want to spend few words on how the support area is calculated in case of a strong drop due to unexpected negative news. I use the last 52 weeks to calculate bitcoin volatility and starting from the closing price of the previous week I project two support values using 6 and 7.5 times the initial value of the calculated volatility. In the past I have explained the concept of the “six sigma”, which concerns the construction quality in industrial processes and I have applied it in this field to calculate support levels and resistance levels which are practically inviolable and which obviously only apply for the current week.
A value of six times is used, with an extra tolerance of 1.5, to arrive at a maximum deviation that uses 7.5 times the initial volatility.

ITA Version here.