In this update we will compare major altcoins towards bitcoin with the quantitative systems I use in the annual forecast that I publish in the first post of each year. Concisely we will list the volatility and gain values of these alternative assets to bitcoin. I would remind you that it is always preferable to invest in assets with low volatility and consequently high returns, volatility always deteriorates the gain of an asset.
I used weekly data, the last 52 weeks where possible. Only Bitcoin Gold hasn’t enough data for a proper computation of its quantitative values.
|ALTCOIN||Gain (G)||Volatility (RMS)|
This table explains why every time you ask me an advice about altcoins, I tell you that it is better to ignore them because NO ALTCOIN shows positive gains above the unit due to the fact that they are dominated by volatility that highly reduce the final gain of the asset.
Said this, the less bad altcoins are Dash and Ethereum followed by Monero and Litecoin with a preference to these last two because of lower volatility compared to Ethereum and Dash.
A special mention to Bitcoin Cash that, considering its high market cap, both Gain and Volatility are bad.
To conclude, the big mistake is to compare altcoins to USD, in my opinion it’s wise to compare them against Bitcoin; against fiat currencies is easy to perform well.
The procedure to compute volatility and gain is always the same explained in the past:
- Compute log of Today bar divided by yesterday bar
- Average values (avg) of last 52 periods (n) (1 year using weekly data)
- Compute Volatility (rms)
- Compute price momentum probability with the formula P = (((avg / rms) – (1 / sqrt (n))) + 1) / 2
- Compute Gain using the formula G = ((1+rms)^P*((1-rms)^(1-P))