Long Term Update: Bottom Done Yes or No?

On 18 January 2018, I wrote that the bottom was probably done but I hinted that at the break of the same I would have closed my long term position, unfortunately there was a subsequent very strong selling activity after a weak reaction from the support of the weekly chart (at about 9500$). In these cases it is useful to scale the time frame to the next one (from weekly to monthly), so i applied the KAMA average and its deviation lines to the monthly graph instead of applying them to the weekly graph.
The resulting graph is this at the moment and the market has reacted strongly from this support area.

monthly chart btcusd
BTCUSD Monthly Chart – Kama and deviation lines

You can see that the first deviation  line has hold the price from further lows at the end of the 2014-2015 bearish market, the same negative deviation line reported to date is at about $ 5300 and the market, for now, has done a bottom at $ 5900. I’ts difficult for me to say if the bearish market started in December 2017 is over, I remain convinced that we will hardly see stable prices under $3900 and that the support area from $3900 to $5300 will be very strong for this year.

If during ther year the trend of the Kama average becomes bearish from flat we will have a confirmation that a down trend, even on the monthly chart, has been established and this would undermine a little the validity of the support area indicated in the chart.
For now I think that the market is still stronger than the 2014-2015 period and that any medium-term correction should be above the indicated support area.

Italian version here.


13 thoughts on “Long Term Update: Bottom Done Yes or No?

      1. ERG

        Hi Enky
        Can you precise that? Im now in the same situation as you not having BTC and dont wanna miss the point to buy.

        So when it passes 10300 you intend to buy? Or what is your buy strategy?


      2. Exactly, but from now on i’ll not publish anymore my personal trading activity, i’ll just publish generic “trading ideas”. Next trading idea could be to buy if the rebound is stronger then expected, in this case a break out above 10300 would be a buy.

    1. I’m bullish because, using the same approach that i used to define the resistance area for btcusd at 10300$ the same level for eurusd is 1.21 and it’s above it.

  1. ERG

    Hey Enky
    10300 support now failed… Time to sell or you expect 23% fibonacci support @around 9.5k should hold?

    1. Hi, i don’t look fibonacci ratios. I always consider fibonacci lines and/or trendlines as imaginary lines without any reliability. At that time support area was 8500-9300 and it worked. Apparently it is headed up, next resistance area from 11300 to 13000.

    1. I’m just following the monthly chart to avoid distracting myself from these smaller movements. On the monthly chart nothing has changed, the 4000-5500$ area remains valid for buying and 18500-25500$ for selling. Market is correcting on the weekly chart and it’ll remain bearish in the short term while the monthly chart is not yet bearish but flat at the moment.

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