Long Term Update: nothing new to report

XBTUSD Monthly Chart since 2013

After several months since the last update there are no particular news, at the time I wrote that “…..My opinion is that the bitcoin will continue to remain for most of the year within the levels calculated with the KAMA (yellow) and therefore remains a good opportunity to buy the price area from 4000 to 5500 dollars…..” and my opinion has not changed since then.

I have read everywhere that the descending triangle pattern will soon tell where bitcoin will go, whether to break upwards or downwards. I can’t say which way the price will take but usually when too many investors/traders expect one thing the market has the habit of doing the exact opposite.

The bitcoin usd cross might test the 4k level for a short period of time followed by a strong upmove; a last shakeout move tends to shake out the weak hands before the next big move, many investors will be very scared in seeing the bitcoin go down to 4k usd, I do not and possibly I could decide to buy again in that price range (4000$-5200$).

To conclude it’s very important to see if the level of 5200$ will be tested and broken before year’s end, if so an interesting buying opportunity might arise. If not, then another buying opportunity might be to enter the market if bitcoin moves above the Kama monthly average now at 8650$.



23 thoughts on “Long Term Update: nothing new to report

  1. Kant

    Hi, Enky! What is the probability that BTC can fall below 4000? To what levels then BTC can fall? Thnx for attention.

    1. I’m working on it. i’m not sure that the support area 4000$-5200$ will stop the fall. I’m evaluating the support area around 2800-3000 as a candidate for the final bottom.

  2. Herbert

    Nice monthly wick below 4K support zone (4000$-5200$), and now two days before monthly close, price rises again above 4K.
    What’s the probability that we bottomed here and we had our last shakeout move before the next big move higher, as you wrote?

    1. In terms of time, after 11 months from the top of last year, the probability that the correction is over is exactly 70%, now i can’t say if this market will do a “V” bottom instead of a “W” bottom like it did in 2015 with a sideway movement of 8 months after the first bottom. In any case if i see strength above monthly Kama i’ll buy, today is at 7019$ using bitstamp data but in a couple of days we will have a new monthly bar so probably the kama will drop to 6k or so.

      1. Herbert

        What made you decide to NOT buy the shakeout move to 4K support? You defined the shakeout move to 4K as an interesting buying opportunity, but did not buy it?
        At least, that’s how I understand your post. Yes, price wicked below 4K, but will probably not close below 4K on monthly basis.
        I reread your post of October 1 and the scenario you predicted unfolded. Why didn’t you bought the shakeout move to 4K and now buy only if you see strength above monthly Kama at 6K?
        6K is almost at the level of price action of October 1, the day you made your post. I try to understand your thinking about the trade opportunity you posted October 1.

      2. because only 11 months have passed since the Top and in any case I’m waiting to see the closing of this month’s bar. Entering the market too early on the weakness can be risky, remember that there’s always the kama average as entry point should break it upward in the coming months.

  3. jensen

    He already stated above that he always waits till the monthly bar closes to decide whether or not to buy.

    1. Herbert

      I know. But this way he misses the buying opportunity he wrote about October 1. Now Enky enters the market if bitcoin moves above the Kama monthly average (6K he expects).
      That’s the second strategy he mentions in his post of October 1. So, when Enky buys, market is back to the level of October 1.

  4. ERG

    It seems to look like Enkys decicion not to buy on the 5200-4000 area was smart. In my view the Market shows very recent some weakness and 3100 might be likely.
    Any update Enky?

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