For those who follow me on Twitter already knows that I opened a long term position after many months out of the market, to support this decision today i like to share with you this analysis made on volumes thanks to the data of the Kraken exchange using the BTCUSD cross. With other exchanges the analysis is however interesting but less accurate, I got the best results with Kraken.
The analysis starts from an accurate measurement of volume activity using tick data, each trade is considered in the calculation to have a net result about the flow of volume.
For who follow me on this blog should know that the trading platform used here is Sierrachart 64 bit, the big amount of tick data processed to compute this interesting volume oscillator wouldn’t be possible to do at TradingView or similar online platforms.
The “up/down Volume Ratio” oscillator is computed and smoothed using a 18 periods linear regression moving average. I added also in the chart the widely know ALMA moving average (9 periods, standard settings).
I think i’ll probably use this template to help me to understand when the current uptrend will end and at the same time to maximize the trade exit efficiency of my current long term trade.
I conclude this short post spending two words about what i said in my previous blog update (Jan 2019). Well, this market broke the first resistance at 9k usd (it was a conservative target already met) and the next one is around 16k usd. At that time i wrote also that increasing the volatility factor from 1x to 1.5x the next important resistance is near 30k usd. I really think that if a big trend develops this year, it will probably end near this resistance level.
The current reason beyond this uptrend might be that the market is discounting the next year block halving that in the past always pushed the price very high; i’ve seen a model out there on the web forecasting bitcoin at 55k usd because of this incoming halving, basically an attempt to model bitcoin price starting from its scarcity.
Don’t forget to follow me at Twitter, it’s quicker to post update there for me.