Because of cyclicality of the things that surround us also the markets oscillate endlessly between phases of congestion and trend, between moments in which the volatility/trend ratio is almost zero to others in which it is maximum.
By dint of following my updates I hope you will succeeded in understanding this fundamental concept, then you will begin to look at the markets for what they are, balloons that continuously inflate and deflate or alternatively, if you don’t like the metaphor, a breathing lung.
The image above represent the last 8 years of the bitcoin/dollar kama efficiency ratio. As you can see for yourself, when the market peaks immediately the volatility trend ratio drops because the market takes a break, exhaling the previously inspired air.
With BTCUSD there is a strong 60-day cycle in the Kama Efficiency Ratio indicator, it means that , on average, 60 days separate two peaks in this indicator, it does not necessarily mean that there are 60 days between two highs or between two lows, due to the nature of this indicator it can happen that there are 60 days between a low and a high or between two lows or between two highs. I hope to be clear on this concept to avoid confusion but a peak in the Kama Efficiency Ratio does not necessarily mean that there is a top, it can also be a market low.
Can we use this information to try to predict the next spike on the kama efficiency ratio? We can but we must evaluate the results with caution.
The last peak happened on February 21, so the next peak could be around April 20, where we will have either a Top or a Bottom.
For now, as you can see in the chart below, the Kama efficiency Ratio is very low, in fact BTCUSD is flat and between the Kama average and the first line of support, tested 3 times in recent days.
If you got the metaphor, now is the time for the “bitcoin animal” to start with a new “inhale, exhale” cycle, the volatility/trend ratio (Kama E.R.) is very lows soon we will have a new established trend on the daily chart.
In case of a downtrend the next bottom could be inside the support zone, between 39 and 44 thousands dollars; if an uptrend will develop the next target could be towards the resistance area near 65 thousands dollars.
Ok guys, I leave you saying that I moved my stop loss to 35000 dollars, it now has become a stop order to protect the profits achieved so far. See you at the next update.