I think at this point it is very likely that the TOP of this cycle has been done and to see a next top we will have to wait the next cycle of 2024-2028 with a possible top expected in 2025.
One could say that Bitcoin could repeat what we saw in 2013 with two successive highs, one in March and the other in December but I think it is unlikely that history will always repeat itself with the same patterns.
I don’t think it is negative for bitcoin another 4 years of consolidation spent between the floor price and kama average as we have seen in previous cycles.
As you can see in the below monthly chart the new floor price zone is around 12k-20k usd, will bitcoin go there? I don’t know, honestly I think we can expect something different this time as the intermediate level of low volatility highlighted in the chart may work holding bitcoin above 28k usd.
First test is to see if this intermediate level will work or not, if not then a capitulation might occur around 20k usd that it was also the top (static support now) of the previous cycle (December 2017).
My doubts also include the fact that I was expecting a much stronger top than this one done at around 64000 dollars, if confirmed it would be a weak top for this cycle and I would interpret this as a slowdown of the long term trend; this is also understandable, as an asset grows in size it also becomes slower and more stable with lower and lower volatility and less and less intense bubbles.
For the current trade the trailing profit at $29k remains unchanged, if caught I think I will buy back again if support at 28k will holds in the coming weeks and/or months and eventually i’ll buy again inside the floor price of this cycle.