Long Term Update: Top is probably in for this cycle.

I think at this point it is very likely that the TOP of this cycle has been done and to see a next top we will have to wait the next cycle of 2024-2028 with a possible top expected in 2025.
One could say that Bitcoin could repeat what we saw in 2013 with two successive highs, one in March and the other in December but I think it is unlikely that history will always repeat itself with the same patterns.
I don’t think it is negative for bitcoin another 4 years of consolidation spent between the floor price and kama average as we have seen in previous cycles.

As you can see in the below monthly chart the new floor price zone is around 12k-20k usd, will bitcoin go there? I don’t know, honestly I think we can expect something different this time as the intermediate level of low volatility highlighted in the chart may work holding bitcoin above 28k usd.

BTCUSD – Monthly chart

First test is to see if this intermediate level will work or not, if not then a capitulation might occur around 20k usd that it was also the top (static support now) of the previous cycle (December 2017).

My doubts also include the fact that I was expecting a much stronger top than this one done at around 64000 dollars, if confirmed it would be a weak top for this cycle and I would interpret this as a slowdown of the long term trend; this is also understandable, as an asset grows in size it also becomes slower and more stable with lower and lower volatility and less and less intense bubbles.

For the current trade the trailing profit at $29k remains unchanged, if caught I think I will buy back again if support at 28k will holds in the coming weeks and/or months and eventually i’ll buy again inside the floor price of this cycle.


10 thoughts on “Long Term Update: Top is probably in for this cycle.

  1. Aglio

    Thanks Enky. Your update could not have come quick enough. 😉 also kudos on your april 23rd post, right on point and time! Just …simply amazing!Cheers A

  2. TheycallmeVic

    Oh my goodness Enky. I love your work and never wished you were wrong until now, lol. I’m still hoping we get a 2013 like second rally to new highs.

  3. A

    Do you think there’s also a possibility of BTC going to 50 k, then somewhere between 12 and 30k or would everything over 40-42k be a re-reversal?

    1. Look at the small timeframes to understand what is happening. On the daily chart the resistance is 44000$, only above 44k usd we can consider an upside reversal.
      However, keep in mind that STRATEGY has priority, so I will continue to stay bullish until the trailing profit at $29k is caught.
      Then should bitcoin make new highs I will raise the trailing profit accordingly.
      To answer your question if bitcoin goes to 50k the odds to see a new bottom at 12-20k is very low in my opinion. Bye

  4. Jon

    Your previous post about a new rally starting looks spot on. Also, CME chats show btc is above the 200DMA. Do you feel top is in still with this weeks price action? Thanks Enky, I’m glad I found your page!

    1. I hope not! i’d like to see a top at 120k usd or so as i forecasted in january with my yearly forecast.
      As i told to another guy here in the comment section we need to go above 44k usd to start talking of a true reversal.

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