Portfolio Update

LONG TERM
LONG | 3 units (50 btc each) bought between May 2014 and October 2015 with an average price of 549$

SHORT TERM
No position open

I’m still long since May 2014 and considering the recent increase in volatility XBT/USD might reach the optimistic forecast for this year (2900$) of my January update after a confirmed breakout of the 1900$ level.

I’m not going to close my position if XBTUSD continues to stay above 1 year VWAP, now at 860$. This long-term trade may remain open for many years until bitcoin will move below the one year VWAP.

I might decide to further increase the position if there will be a test of the 2 months VWAP, now at 1200$.

Portfolio Update

LONG TERM
NO POSITIONS OPEN AT THE MOMENT

SHORT TERM
LONG | from 140.50$ with half unit (50 btc) bought August 31, 2013

I’m still long since August, 31 2013, giving recent increase in volatility BTC/USD might reach all time top very soon and before the end of the 2013, support is around 190$ for this month but i’ll watch the 150$ level as a potential stop loss, therefore in the worst scenario i’ll close the trade with a small profit.

I think we can expect this rally to continue at least into the winter if not longer, also because the money inflow is strong and positive, especially at BTCchina exchange, i don’t see aggressive selling since “silk road” flash crash thus sellers need higher prices before starting to unload their bitcoins.

If i see a strong move above April 2013 top at 266$ i might decide to bring this short term trade for the long term, eventually increasing its size to 100 bitcoins (buying additional 50 bitcoins at the breakout of 266$).

For this month I think the approximate market price range for Bitstamp can be in the 170$-250$ price zone while for BTCchina 950-1600 CNY, i still think bitcoin could reach 1600 CNY soon in accordance with my previous analysis for that bitcoin exchange.

Portfolio Update

LONG | from an average price of 13.18$/btc with 1 unit (100 btc) since December 4, 2012

The bears are gone, exactly 4 weeks after i’ve bought btcs. It’s a long term trade so the stop loss is now under 20$, but i’ll follow carefully this trade to manage take profit and stoploss levels optimally. Resistance for this week is around 41$.

EDIT: revised range estimate for this week 41.80$-51.60$

Portfolio Update

LONG TERM
LONG | from 13.18$ with 1 unit (100 btc) bought December 4, 2012

SHORT TERM
OUT OF MARKET

I’m still long since December, 4 2012, giving recent increase in volatility BTC/USD might reach my yearly target of 18.8$ very soon and well before the end of the 2013, support is around 14.5$ but i’ll watch the 13.2$ level as a potential stop loss, in the worst scenario i’ll stop at even.

Bitcoin Usd pair at MtGox recently made new highs for this second bull market, after the 2011 blowout, which started from the November 2011 low. With this increase in volatility i think we can expect this rally to continue at least into mid-spring if not longer, also because the money inflow is strong and positive, i don’t see aggressive selling since months, and monthly volume is not so high compared to the bearish period of June 2011-March 2012 confirming that we are fully in a long term uptrend.

I think that 2013 will be a very volatile year for bitcoin and that the low levels of volatility we have seen during the past weeks are not indicative of what lies ahead.

Portfolio Update

LONG TERM
OUT OF MARKET

SHORT TERM
LONG | from 12.63$ with 1 unit (100 btc) bought September 19, 2012

I decided to extend the duration of this trade because of the recent big drop of volatility that imply reduced risks, at the moment the volatility of bitcoin traded at MtGox is very similar to the average historical volatility of all united states stocks traded at Nyse and Nasdaq in contrast to the wild volatility of the August period.

Giving current volatility BTC/USD might reach the 13.3$-13.4$ within end of this month, support around 11.5$ but i’ll watch the 11.15$ level as a potential stop loss.

Portfolio Update

LONG TERM
LONG | from 5 .06$ with 1 unit (100 btc) bought on April 18, 2012

SHORT TERM
OUT OF MARKET

Considering what i’ve written on my previous update i decided to extend again the duration of this trade because of the recent strength shown by bitcoin, in the last 4 weeks the market accelerated nicely to 11$, giving current volatility BTC/USD can still reach destination at 14$ as planned.

If it will break the support point that i’ve computed at ~9.9$ i’ll consider it a first warning for a trend reversal signal, especially if confirmed by a bearish or negative ” net volume” activity.

Portfolio Update

LONG TERM
LONG | from 5 .06$ with 1 unit (100 btc)

SHORT TERM
OUT OF MARKET

I decided to extend the duration of this trade because of the recent drop of volatility, in the last 2 days the market accelerated nicely to the previous end of June target of 5.6$, giving current volatility BTC/USD might reach 6.5$ within 20 days; instead using full volatility i’ve an ambitious target of 8.5$ that can be reached by end of June. It is too early to say if this increasing volatility will carry the bitcoin in the double digit territory but the long accumulation that i’ve seen since february 2012 it is ending and a potential  strong rally could start.