Weekly Range Update: new top ahead?

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range estimated at 2400$-3120$ | For this week the range in case of low volatility could be 2600$-2880$, in case of volatility above normal we could see a range of 2400$-3120$ thus implying a new all time high above 2900$.

As you can see in the chart, the price remain bounded between two deviation lines, the first and second; this week the XBTUSD cross should break one of the two levels by retesting the VWAP or making a new all time high between the third and fourth price deviation lines (3120$-3360$).
As i said in some of my earlier updates I still expect a maximum above 2900$ for this year, I still believe that it will happen.

As for the other indicators I use in this template, you can see that the ALMA average is back to bullish and the RSI has quickly tested the oversold area below the threshold of 30 during the 1800$ bottom and now it quickly returned above 50.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is  1250$-1600$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started to publish graphics on both bitcoin and some of the most important altcoins using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version here.

Long Term Update

longtermupdate
XBTUSD Composite Index -Weekly Chart

This chart has been often proposed over the last few weeks for those who follow my updates on Twitter, it represents a weekly chart with my KAMA average and deviation levels. I’ve added 2 months and 1 year VWAP average to get a wider idea of possible valid support/resistance levels.

The sell-off of these days seems to have found support within a support price zone defined by the deviation levels of my KAMA average. It would be ideal to have the bottom above the maximum of the previous cycle, in this case the maximum done at 1350 $ last March 6, better would be to see the bottom inside the area between 1600 and 1900 dollars.
In the current rebound the 2-month VWAP average should act as resistance, for this week we should not see prices above $ 2300 and not below 1600$.

In case of further downside volatility a strong support is 1600$ and 1 year VWAP should provide support at 1150$ in case of a catastrophic event.

ITA Version here.

Weekly Range Update: Kama Levels

Kama Levels BTCUSD Composite Index
Kama Levels BTCUSD Composite Index

For this week I will use my KAMA indicator with deviation levels available on the TradingView platform for free, the weekly price range in case of low volatility could be 2400$-2650$, in case of normal volatility the expected range is 2300$-2760$.

In the attached chart, the XBTUSD composite index is used and it has been derived using the price data of seven bitcoin exchanges. The formula to use is as follows:

(Poloniex: btcusdt + btce: btcusd + bitfinex: btcusd + bitstamp: btcusd + coinbase: btcusd + kraken: xbtusd + ITbit: btcusd) / 7

This formula on tradingview.com generates a composite index of the XBTUSD cross making the average of 7 exchanges and adding all the volumes togheter, the seven exchanges used are:

  1. Poloniex
  2. BTCE
  3. BitFinex
  4. BitStamp
  5. Coinbase
  6. Kraken
  7. ITbit

Doing this is also useful to see the total volume activity that will give you better results if you are using volume based indicators.

This week, volatility dropped significantly and with the imminent closure of the symmetrical triangle, a pattern that, as I said in the previous update, expects a continuation of the underlying trend.
Next update will include VWAP and deviation levels, but you can still consider the deviation levels calculated by the KAMA average as enough reliable.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1180$-1500$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2400$-2880$ | The XBTUSD cross resists over 2400$ support but as I said last week there is always a risk that it breaks down towards the 2 months VWAP roughly at $1950.

With the ALMA daily moving average pushing bitcoin down and its effort to stay above 2400$ there is some sort of compression also visible in the chart as a symmetric triangle (descending tops and ascending bottoms), as I have said several times in the past  this pattern usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern thus it should end with an upside breakout.

To conclude, the average RSI oscillator is in neutral zone near 50 and the RSI itself has stopped falling without ever entering the oversold area below 30.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1150$-1450$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version Here

Long Term Update: 2Y VWAP

bitstampUSD 7 Day #4 2017-06-19 08_06_27.980
XBTUSD Weekly Chart since 2016 – 2 Years Vwap

This week i feature a weekly XBTUSD chart of last 2 years, including a two-year VWAP average with deviation lines. For more than two years bitcoin has been above the 2Y WVAP and in recent weeks has moved far away from this average with a strong upward trend. In the attached chart I included a static resistance at 2900$ that I had calculated in the yearly forecast that I publish each January.

It’s unlikely that I’ve called the top for this year and as I said to some users in the comments in one of my previous articles, I think there is room to enter the resistance zone highlighted in the chart. The support zone, if a medium-term correction is made on the weekly chart, is the price range from 1600$ to 2200$.

The range for this week is 2330$-2780$ and in case of a catastrophic fall, the usual support area is 1050$-1350$.

ITA version here.

Short Term Update

Midweek updated deviation levels and VWAP

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-06-15 09_09_07.029
XBTUSD Daily Chart

Price today tested the first positive deviation line (bitstamp data), 2 months VWAP is now at 1789$ and in case of a further drop below it I’ll increase my long term position, from 150 to 175 bitcoins.

RSI oscillator is near the midline (50) and when there are strong uptrends it usually acts as support, i don’t think it will go straight to oversold without a rebound first.

Weekly Range Update: flirting with resistance

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-06-12 09_28_13.020
XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2600$-3000$ | Our beloved cross pair XBTUSD slowed its rise last week with a contraction of volatility without being able to stay consistently above 3k USD.
However, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a very strong position since weeks being above the first positive deviation of VWAP and for more than ten days above the second deviation.
For this reason, I recently added a fourth line of deviation above VWAP that I normally don’t use, this 4th line defines the upper bound of resistance zone ranging from 3000 to 3400 dollars.

I think that XBTUSD cross could reach 3400 dollars this week or the next one considering that all the cryptocurrencies sector is going up massively though bitcoin is the one that is rising at the least speed. I have no sure explanation for this but I could hypothesize that it is because a decent amount of liquidity is flowing into altcoins draining resources from bitcoin.

The average RSI oscillator has returned over the overcrowded area and it is now obvious that in this extreme power situation this oscillator moves from the level defining the overcompatible which is 70 to full saturation around 95-100.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1050-1350 USD.

ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range at 2100$-2900$ | The VWAP is just below 1700$ and the XBTUSD cross is always above it confirming mid-term bullishness.

I have told you many times that when a market is in a very strong position it can move between the first and second price deviation line except for rare cases where it can be between the second and the third line.
From a couple of days back it’s above the second price deviation line and I think that the current rally will continue pushing the bitcoin towards 2900$.

The average of the RSI oscillator is just below the overbought area and I think that bitcoin will ignore this indicator that may remain overbought for a certain period of time due to the fact that the dominant timeframe is the weekly one and as mentioned earlier I think this aspect can push bitcoin over the previous maximum of 2750$.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1050-1450 USD.

ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update: introducing 4th deviation line

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-05-22 09_25_59.731
Daily Chart – VWAP + dev.lines

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2040$ – 2680$. | With this update I introduce an additional deviation line from the 2-months VWAP reference average.

The 2-month VWAP may be a bit slow now that XBTUSD is experiencing quite high volatility levels, so for an appropriate price range I decided to introduce the fourth line of deviation.

When a market is very strong it is possible that it moves between the first and second line of deviation that acts as support and resistance defining a price channel. At the moment XBTUSD is moving between the second and the third line and it does not happen very often and if you look the RSI you can see that it is oscillating between the overbought threshold (70) and the maximum value of 95-100, an extreme situation if compared to other financial assets.

Fundamentally this is an expanding market that reminds me the exuberance of stock markets from 1996 to 2000, why do I think that? Well just look, for example, at the unsustainable ascension of ethereum, an altcoin that does not have the magic ingredient to solve the scalability problems that all cryptocurrencies have and yet part of the audience perceives this altcoin as different and superior to the others and does not think twice before buying it despite it doubled its value in just six days as well as 20 years ago investors bought technologically overvalued companies that within a few months increased their listing value by two, three times and even more.
Do not get me wrong, because I think the peak is still a few years away but just be careful diversifying in altcoins.

Returning to XBTUSD cross and considering the current level of volatility it is not excluded to see it above 2400$ by the end of the week, the support area I consider is around 2040$ but in case of another profit taking support is at 1720$.

In case of extreme fall the support area is 850-1200$.
Ita version here.