Weekly Range Update

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-09-18 09_48_01.095
XBTUSD Daily Chart – VWAP Levels

XBT/USD weekly price range at 3650$-4300$ | As I wrote on twitter the market found support within the support area of my previous update that had a lower limit of $2800. I would like to point out that I will not increase my long-term position opened between 2014 and 2015, but I will tell you when there will be a buying opportunity.

Today’s reaction is positive and I believe that in 1-2 days the ALMA moving average will turn upwards together with the average of the RSI oscillator.

The RSI has already given a purchase signal, but it is better to confirm it when its average slope will also turn positive.
When these conditions are met we will have a buying opportunity.

In the event of a catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart remains unchanged at 2000-2500 US Dollars.

ITA version here.

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Short Term Update: updated weekly range

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Daily Chart XBTUSD VWAP levels

Updated weekly range is 2800$-4300$ | For the first time in many months the XBTUSD cross is testing the VWAP volume average calculated using the last two months of daily data.
This is certainly a sign of a slowdown in the current upward trend, it is important to see how long prices will remain around the VWAP average, which today stands at around $3600, a quickly reaction to the upside from here would mean that this market is still very strong and resilient to all attacks it is receiving since September.

From here to Sunday there could also be a quick visit to the first negative deviation line located at 2800$ but looking at the weekly chart there seems to be room for a minimum in October around $2500, in any case later this month I will publish a long term update to better understand where we might have the next medium term bottom using the weekly chart and not the daily chart more suitable for short-term price movements. This mid-term bottom must be ABOVE the previous one of 1800$ happened in July ’17 in order to mantain a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

The RSI oscillator enters the oversold zone after several weeks with its average just above the oversold threshold located at 30, this may mean that a short rebound of few days is ahead, typical after abrupt downward movements.

Overall I think that the XBTUSD cross can hardly lose more than 50% of its value in a single movement, this would mean strong support at $2500.

Short Tem Update: KAMA Levels

KAMA Levels
KAMA Levels

XBT/USD weekly price range at 4000$-4950$ | The price range for this week is not very different from last week, we have seen until now a weak September with the price drop from the all time high of 5000$ and despite several negative news the XBTUSD has remained above 4000 dollars.
As you can see in the graph the support area using my KAMA indicator ranges from $3600 to $4000, the resistance zone from $4950 to $5350.
If the 4000$ support will work, then an upward cycle with a minimum target of 4950$ could start, otherwise the 2-month VWAP around 3400$ is an important support.
I think it’s unlikely to see bitcoin under the vwap at 2 months for this and also next week, otherwise it would mean that on the weekly chart a medium-long term correction has started; however it’s still early to say and let see if XBTUSD can stay above $4000 this week.

In case of a unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is 2000-2500 USD

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update

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XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 3450$-4700$ | In the previous update, I was expecting an increase to 4800$ but the market retraced back to the second VWAP deviation line, I still think there is the will to move up but as maximum resistance for this week there is the third deviation line at 4700$.

The correction that has been seen from 4400$ to 4000$ is not uncommon in a bullish trend but further weakness could bring price down to the first deviation line at around 3400$ which I consider a good entry point where to buy.

As I explained in the past in a very strong market the RSI tends to approach the threshold of 70 without crossing below it, here we are in a similar situation with the RSI average moving towards 70 and the RSI itself already just above 70.

To conclude this week is somewhat important to see if there is still the possibility to do a new ATH or not in the short term.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 2000$-2600$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started to publish charts on both bitcoin and some of the most important altcoins using the TradingView.com platform
ITA version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2400$-2880$ | The XBTUSD cross resists over 2400$ support but as I said last week there is always a risk that it breaks down towards the 2 months VWAP roughly at $1950.

With the ALMA daily moving average pushing bitcoin down and its effort to stay above 2400$ there is some sort of compression also visible in the chart as a symmetric triangle (descending tops and ascending bottoms), as I have said several times in the past  this pattern usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern thus it should end with an upside breakout.

To conclude, the average RSI oscillator is in neutral zone near 50 and the RSI itself has stopped falling without ever entering the oversold area below 30.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1150$-1450$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version Here

Weekly Range Update: Elvis has left the building?

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-06-26 08_16_29.836
XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD Weekly Price Range is  1940$-2860$ | The Cross XBTUSD is retracing and I think it might reach the VWAP average at 1940$.
However, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a strong position as long as it remains above the mid-term VWAP and in any case it must break down the 2400$ level (first positive dev.line) to confirm the short-term bearish trend.

The scenario for a new top at $ 3400 has been postponed and for now my January forecast of a maximum yearly excursion to $2900 is turning out to be correct.

As for the altcoins in general, I can say that we will see a general implosion of all altcoins, I’ve recently posted on twitter a mid-period level analysis for litecoin with the “KAMA v1.1” indicator that you can find on tradingview.com

To conclude, the average of the RSI oscillator is approaching the oversold zone and I believe that a buying opportunity might materialize over the next weeks.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is updated to $ 1100-1400.
ITA Version here.

Weekly Range Update: flirting with resistance

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-06-12 09_28_13.020
XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2600$-3000$ | Our beloved cross pair XBTUSD slowed its rise last week with a contraction of volatility without being able to stay consistently above 3k USD.
However, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a very strong position since weeks being above the first positive deviation of VWAP and for more than ten days above the second deviation.
For this reason, I recently added a fourth line of deviation above VWAP that I normally don’t use, this 4th line defines the upper bound of resistance zone ranging from 3000 to 3400 dollars.

I think that XBTUSD cross could reach 3400 dollars this week or the next one considering that all the cryptocurrencies sector is going up massively though bitcoin is the one that is rising at the least speed. I have no sure explanation for this but I could hypothesize that it is because a decent amount of liquidity is flowing into altcoins draining resources from bitcoin.

The average RSI oscillator has returned over the overcrowded area and it is now obvious that in this extreme power situation this oscillator moves from the level defining the overcompatible which is 70 to full saturation around 95-100.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1050-1350 USD.

ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range at 2100$-2900$ | The VWAP is just below 1700$ and the XBTUSD cross is always above it confirming mid-term bullishness.

I have told you many times that when a market is in a very strong position it can move between the first and second price deviation line except for rare cases where it can be between the second and the third line.
From a couple of days back it’s above the second price deviation line and I think that the current rally will continue pushing the bitcoin towards 2900$.

The average of the RSI oscillator is just below the overbought area and I think that bitcoin will ignore this indicator that may remain overbought for a certain period of time due to the fact that the dominant timeframe is the weekly one and as mentioned earlier I think this aspect can push bitcoin over the previous maximum of 2750$.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1050-1450 USD.

ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 1930$ – 2360$ | The 2-month VWAP is slowly rising and is now about  1500$ which is an important support and as long as the price remains above it the underlying trend is be upward.

In the last update I mentioned that when a market is very strong it can move between the first and the second line of price deviation from the VWAP except for rare cases where it can be between the second and the third line; after last week’s sell-off the cross XBTUSD moved back between the first and the second deviation line between 1900 and 2400 dollars as you can see in the chart.

Considering the current level of volatility it is not excluded to see bitcoin again above 2400$ by the end of this week, the support area that i consider is 1930$ and as very solid support there is always the VWAP’s even though I think it is more likely that the intermediate support at approximately 1700$ will hold.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is updated to 980$-1350$.

ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

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XBTUSD daily chart – vwap + dev.lines

XBT / USD weekly price range is  1230$-1480$. | The XBTUSD pair begins to approach the resistances on both the daily and weekly charts (see previous update for weekly chart), but still remains in strong position above the VWAP now at 1116$.
If there is a break of the first resistance level at 1360 $ there is room to rise up to the next deviation line positioned at approximately 1480$.

I’m reading here and there that because a new maximum has been made above the previous Top, that oscillators are all overbought, others worried about the low volume activity, because all of this many are thinking that an important ATH top is in. Personally I think there is room to go up to another hundred dollars before a correction appears, also i don’t forget that with bitcoin there is usually a volatility peak around a top, a peak that i don’t see yet.

To conclude our daily ALMA average is firmly up and the RSI as I said is in overbought territory. From now on there is the possibility that a maximum on the daily chart is near, just use a common volatility stop (there are many for free also at tradingview) to protect your long position.

In case of extreme fall, the support area rise to 730-930 USD.

ITA version

Weekly Price Range Update

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XBTUSD daily chart – VWAP + deviation levels

XBT / USD weekly price range is 1150$-1335$ | The market is still in a strong position above the VWAP and is near the resistance level of the previous week (1235$), if a break materializes above the first resistance level at 1245$ there is room for an attack to the all-time high around 1350 $; as support to my hypothesis there is the fact that the last two bottoms happened at 750$ and 900$, two higher lows reflecting the fact that the underlying trend is still firmly upward and it is causing higher highs and lows. With this logic the next maximum should be above 1300$-1350$.

The ALMA average is bullish and the RSI has entered overbought zone. From now on there is a tangible risk that a maximum on the daily chart is forming especially if there is a strong increase of volatility.

In cases of extreme drop the support area is now 700-875 USD.

ITA version here

Weekly Range Update

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XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range 1200$-1425$ | Also this weekly range has been calculated using twice the volatility level commonly used until the situation will stabilize after the great volatility seen during the Sec decision about the etf.

The average ALMA is about to turn upward and the RSI oscillator backed off from overbought territory but not yet gone into oversold.

I think we need a move to new highs around 1400$, it would be a good signal to confirm the uptrend. About the daily bar of 10-11 March i think that this market cleared weak hands, I am tempted to interpret this as a bullish signal.

In cases of extreme fall the support area is updated to 650-790 US dollars.

ITA version here.