Weekly Range Update: Bottom Done

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XBTUSD Daily Chart

XBT/USD weekly price range 14300$-17500$ | This week we return to a lower volatility level for calculating VWAP volume deviation lines, so we have a third and fourth deviation line not as far apart as they were in previous updates. The trend remains steadily UP also because the minimum done at 11000 dollars is clearly higher than that of 12 November at around 5600 dollars; I therefore expect a new maximum in the weeks to follow above 20000 dollars.

For the resistance zone the most probable range is from 17k to 21k dollars while for the support zone the range is 11000$-14300$.

The RSI oscillator has dropped almost to the oversold area with its average at about 47 that still has to turn upward to confirm a reversal in the trend.

With the other template i follow with KAMA average and deviation lines i’ve some doubts that XBTUSD will go towards the interesting long term support zone of 7500-9000 USD.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart rises to USD 4300-5800.

Italian version here at bitchanger.com

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Weekly Range Update: at resistance

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XBTUSD Daily Chart – VWAP and dev. levels

XBT/USD weekly price range 7600$-10700$ | The 2-month VWAP is now at 6600$, the resistance zone ranges from 9600$ to 10700$ and is defined by the 3rd and 4th price deviation line.
XBTUSD begins the week at a resistance level, however this pair has proven that it is not impossible to reach the fourth positive deviation line above VWAP, it has already happened on November 8th.

The support area ranges from 6600$ to 7600$ and is defined by VWAP and the 1st deviation line.

In the event of a strong profit taking, I think it is very difficult to see a test down to the VWAP at 6600$, given the enormous strength of this market is much more likely that the support level at 7600$ will hold.

The RSI oscillator is clearly overbought with its average just above the threshold level of 70; these two conditions do not preclude a further boost of the market up to 10700$.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is updated to 3700-4400 USD.

ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-10-23 10_40_21.867
XBTUSD Daily Chart

XBTUSD weekly price range 5630$-6360$ | Last week I had hypothesized a limited price activity within the most likely range, so it was except for the quick bottom done on October 18 where XBTUSD quickly recovered from the daily low.

The support area is similar to that reported in the previous update, ranging from 4900$ to 5650$, the resistance zone from 6360$ to 7080$.

I don’t expect to see a drop down to the first deviation line at $4900 although the RSI oscillator and its average are both overbought.
I believe that this will also be an interim week with the price remaining between 5630 and 6360 USD; I therefore find it unlikely that a strong bearish move will push bitcoin down to the 2-month VWAP at 4175$.
To conclude the first level to observe is 5630$, the next 4900$ and without unexpected negative news I see it impossible this week to go below 4900$.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart remains unchanged at USD 2400-3100.

ITA Version at bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range 5350$-6600$ | The most obvious thing for this week is that the XBTUSD cross will spend most of the time in a sideway movement between 5350$ and 6000$ considering that it comes from a rise with a strength never seen before since I follow bitcoin.

The buying area is the same reported in the previous update, ranging from 4700$ to 5350$, the resistance zone from 6000$ to 6600$.

The RSI oscillator and its average are both overbought as logical after the sharp rise seen in recent days. I believe that this will be an interim week with the price remaining between 5300 and 6000 USD, so I think a strong bearish movement is unlikely to push bitcoin down to the 2 months VWAP , now at 4100$.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart rises to 2400-3100 USD.

ITA Version here.

Weekly Range Update: Yikes!!

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-10-13 08_18_24.109
XBTUSD tested VWAP 4th deviation line for the 1st time ever in its history

Updated weekly price range is 4730$-6600$ | It is interesting to note that the cross XBTUSD after two days of hesitation exactly on the second deviation line of our 2-month VWAP average then violently broke the resistance level to reach for the first time in its history the fourth line of deviation of the VWAP , this is a phenomenal sign of market strength.

Theoretically, the point where it broke the second deviation line (4800$) should now serve as a support in case of a price retracement but it is more likely that for the next two-three days the support level will be the third line at 5350$.
For who sold before these insane price levels it might be wise to enter again between 4800$ and 5350$.

Should the price levels, mentioned in this update, changes significantly I will keep you updated with Twitter.

ITA Version here.

Weekly Range Update: Over 4300$

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range at 4300$-4800$ | There is an unusual situation this week, the 2-month VWAP average is flat since the bottom of 15 September, therefore neutral trend for the short term. However, the market has surpassed the resistance value I mentioned last week, at $4300, this is a positive note.

To bring the short-term trend back to the upside we need to stay above $4300 at least for the whole week. The resistances shown in the graph range from 4800 to 5250 dollars.

In the previous update I had suggested to my readers a short term long operation from about 3600$, who followed this “trading idea” will surely have had a decent profit, I invite you all to keep this operation open as long as the XBTUSD cross will remain above $4300, below this level I suggest to close the position.

The RSI, as I said last week, has already given a sign of purchase that is now confirmed by its average which is on the rise, however we have not yet entered the overbought area leaving margin for a possible rise up to $4800.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart rises to 2100-2600 USD.

ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range at 3070$-4300$ | The situation is unchanged compared to the previous week, the market is flat as well as the 2 months VWAP and basically also the ALMA average, slightly negative almost flat.

By now you all know that more or less after a week of volatility contraction bitcoin breaks up/down with a peak of volatility; I expect soon an increase in volatility that will soon resolve this neutral phase that the XBTUSD cross is going through, the hard part is that i can’t say which direction it’ll take.

Investors seem to have digested the negative news of this month, first China then the negative comments of traditional bankers, all these efforts to push the price down ended with a bottom at 3000 dollars, we can consider this price level an important level of support for the weeks to come.

RSI, as I said last week, has already given a buy signal on the daily chart, which is also confirmed by its average which is on the rise, but this is the only positive note in a still uncertain picture.

A rise to 4200 dollars is not enough to confirm a reversal of the trend, you have to see strength above 4300 dollars to be able to say that even on the weekly chart has reversed the current bearish trend, however for those who want to try to anticipate the market could try a short-term upward operation with stop loss below 3500$ and target price around 4200-4300$.

In the event of a catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart remains unchanged at 2000-2500 US Dollars.

ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-09-18 09_48_01.095
XBTUSD Daily Chart – VWAP Levels

XBT/USD weekly price range at 3650$-4300$ | As I wrote on twitter the market found support within the support area of my previous update that had a lower limit of $2800. I would like to point out that I will not increase my long-term position opened between 2014 and 2015, but I will tell you when there will be a buying opportunity.

Today’s reaction is positive and I believe that in 1-2 days the ALMA moving average will turn upwards together with the average of the RSI oscillator.

The RSI has already given a purchase signal, but it is better to confirm it when its average slope will also turn positive.
When these conditions are met we will have a buying opportunity.

In the event of a catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart remains unchanged at 2000-2500 US Dollars.

ITA version here.

Short Term Update: updated weekly range

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Daily Chart XBTUSD VWAP levels

Updated weekly range is 2800$-4300$ | For the first time in many months the XBTUSD cross is testing the VWAP volume average calculated using the last two months of daily data.
This is certainly a sign of a slowdown in the current upward trend, it is important to see how long prices will remain around the VWAP average, which today stands at around $3600, a quickly reaction to the upside from here would mean that this market is still very strong and resilient to all attacks it is receiving since September.

From here to Sunday there could also be a quick visit to the first negative deviation line located at 2800$ but looking at the weekly chart there seems to be room for a minimum in October around $2500, in any case later this month I will publish a long term update to better understand where we might have the next medium term bottom using the weekly chart and not the daily chart more suitable for short-term price movements. This mid-term bottom must be ABOVE the previous one of 1800$ happened in July ’17 in order to mantain a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

The RSI oscillator enters the oversold zone after several weeks with its average just above the oversold threshold located at 30, this may mean that a short rebound of few days is ahead, typical after abrupt downward movements.

Overall I think that the XBTUSD cross can hardly lose more than 50% of its value in a single movement, this would mean strong support at $2500.

Short Tem Update: KAMA Levels

KAMA Levels
KAMA Levels

XBT/USD weekly price range at 4000$-4950$ | The price range for this week is not very different from last week, we have seen until now a weak September with the price drop from the all time high of 5000$ and despite several negative news the XBTUSD has remained above 4000 dollars.
As you can see in the graph the support area using my KAMA indicator ranges from $3600 to $4000, the resistance zone from $4950 to $5350.
If the 4000$ support will work, then an upward cycle with a minimum target of 4950$ could start, otherwise the 2-month VWAP around 3400$ is an important support.
I think it’s unlikely to see bitcoin under the vwap at 2 months for this and also next week, otherwise it would mean that on the weekly chart a medium-long term correction has started; however it’s still early to say and let see if XBTUSD can stay above $4000 this week.

In case of a unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is 2000-2500 USD

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update

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XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 3450$-4700$ | In the previous update, I was expecting an increase to 4800$ but the market retraced back to the second VWAP deviation line, I still think there is the will to move up but as maximum resistance for this week there is the third deviation line at 4700$.

The correction that has been seen from 4400$ to 4000$ is not uncommon in a bullish trend but further weakness could bring price down to the first deviation line at around 3400$ which I consider a good entry point where to buy.

As I explained in the past in a very strong market the RSI tends to approach the threshold of 70 without crossing below it, here we are in a similar situation with the RSI average moving towards 70 and the RSI itself already just above 70.

To conclude this week is somewhat important to see if there is still the possibility to do a new ATH or not in the short term.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 2000$-2600$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started to publish charts on both bitcoin and some of the most important altcoins using the TradingView.com platform
ITA version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2400$-2880$ | The XBTUSD cross resists over 2400$ support but as I said last week there is always a risk that it breaks down towards the 2 months VWAP roughly at $1950.

With the ALMA daily moving average pushing bitcoin down and its effort to stay above 2400$ there is some sort of compression also visible in the chart as a symmetric triangle (descending tops and ascending bottoms), as I have said several times in the past  this pattern usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern thus it should end with an upside breakout.

To conclude, the average RSI oscillator is in neutral zone near 50 and the RSI itself has stopped falling without ever entering the oversold area below 30.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1150$-1450$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version Here