As promised here updated VWAP and price deviation lines. VWAP rose to 2253$ giving a perfect support for yesterday price slump, i think that inside the 1900$-2250$ price zone many buyers will show up. RSI is low but not yet in oversold territory.
For this week I will use my KAMA indicator with deviation levels available on the TradingView platform for free, the weekly price range in case of low volatility could be 2400$-2650$, in case of normal volatility the expected range is 2300$-2760$.
In the attached chart, the XBTUSD composite index is used and it has been derived using the price data of seven bitcoin exchanges. The formula to use is as follows:
(Poloniex: btcusdt + btce: btcusd + bitfinex: btcusd + bitstamp: btcusd + coinbase: btcusd + kraken: xbtusd + ITbit: btcusd) / 7
This formula on tradingview.com generates a composite index of the XBTUSD cross making the average of 7 exchanges and adding all the volumes togheter, the seven exchanges used are:
Doing this is also useful to see the total volume activity that will give you better results if you are using volume based indicators.
This week, volatility dropped significantly and with the imminent closure of the symmetrical triangle, a pattern that, as I said in the previous update, expects a continuation of the underlying trend.
Next update will include VWAP and deviation levels, but you can still consider the deviation levels calculated by the KAMA average as enough reliable.
In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1180$-1500$.
Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform
XBT / USD weekly price range is 2400$-2880$ | The XBTUSD cross resists over 2400$ support but as I said last week there is always a risk that it breaks down towards the 2 months VWAP roughly at $1950.
With the ALMA daily moving average pushing bitcoin down and its effort to stay above 2400$ there is some sort of compression also visible in the chart as a symmetric triangle (descending tops and ascending bottoms), as I have said several times in the past this pattern usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern thus it should end with an upside breakout.
To conclude, the average RSI oscillator is in neutral zone near 50 and the RSI itself has stopped falling without ever entering the oversold area below 30.
In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1150$-1450$.
XBT / USD Weekly Price Range is 1940$-2860$ | The Cross XBTUSD is retracing and I think it might reach the VWAP average at 1940$.
However, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a strong position as long as it remains above the mid-term VWAP and in any case it must break down the 2400$ level (first positive dev.line) to confirm the short-term bearish trend.
The scenario for a new top at $ 3400 has been postponed and for now my January forecast of a maximum yearly excursion to $2900 is turning out to be correct.
As for the altcoins in general, I can say that we will see a general implosion of all altcoins, I’ve recently posted on twitter a mid-period level analysis for litecoin with the “KAMA v1.1” indicator that you can find on tradingview.com
To conclude, the average of the RSI oscillator is approaching the oversold zone and I believe that a buying opportunity might materialize over the next weeks.
In case of extreme fall, the support area is updated to $ 1100-1400.
ITA Version here.
This week i feature a weekly XBTUSD chart of last 2 years, including a two-year VWAP average with deviation lines. For more than two years bitcoin has been above the 2Y WVAP and in recent weeks has moved far away from this average with a strong upward trend. In the attached chart I included a static resistance at 2900$ that I had calculated in the yearly forecast that I publish each January.
It’s unlikely that I’ve called the top for this year and as I said to some users in the comments in one of my previous articles, I think there is room to enter the resistance zone highlighted in the chart. The support zone, if a medium-term correction is made on the weekly chart, is the price range from 1600$ to 2200$.
The range for this week is 2330$-2780$ and in case of a catastrophic fall, the usual support area is 1050$-1350$.
Midweek updated deviation levels and VWAP
Price today tested the first positive deviation line (bitstamp data), 2 months VWAP is now at 1789$ and in case of a further drop below it I’ll increase my long term position, from 150 to 175 bitcoins.
RSI oscillator is near the midline (50) and when there are strong uptrends it usually acts as support, i don’t think it will go straight to oversold without a rebound first.
XBT / USD weekly price range is 2600$-3000$ | Our beloved cross pair XBTUSD slowed its rise last week with a contraction of volatility without being able to stay consistently above 3k USD.
However, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a very strong position since weeks being above the first positive deviation of VWAP and for more than ten days above the second deviation.
For this reason, I recently added a fourth line of deviation above VWAP that I normally don’t use, this 4th line defines the upper bound of resistance zone ranging from 3000 to 3400 dollars.
I think that XBTUSD cross could reach 3400 dollars this week or the next one considering that all the cryptocurrencies sector is going up massively though bitcoin is the one that is rising at the least speed. I have no sure explanation for this but I could hypothesize that it is because a decent amount of liquidity is flowing into altcoins draining resources from bitcoin.
The average RSI oscillator has returned over the overcrowded area and it is now obvious that in this extreme power situation this oscillator moves from the level defining the overcompatible which is 70 to full saturation around 95-100.
In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1050-1350 USD.
XBT / USD weekly price range at 2100$-2900$ | The VWAP is just below 1700$ and the XBTUSD cross is always above it confirming mid-term bullishness.
I have told you many times that when a market is in a very strong position it can move between the first and second price deviation line except for rare cases where it can be between the second and the third line.
From a couple of days back it’s above the second price deviation line and I think that the current rally will continue pushing the bitcoin towards 2900$.
The average of the RSI oscillator is just below the overbought area and I think that bitcoin will ignore this indicator that may remain overbought for a certain period of time due to the fact that the dominant timeframe is the weekly one and as mentioned earlier I think this aspect can push bitcoin over the previous maximum of 2750$.
In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1050-1450 USD.
XBT / USD weekly price range is 1930$ – 2360$ | The 2-month VWAP is slowly rising and is now about 1500$ which is an important support and as long as the price remains above it the underlying trend is be upward.
In the last update I mentioned that when a market is very strong it can move between the first and the second line of price deviation from the VWAP except for rare cases where it can be between the second and the third line; after last week’s sell-off the cross XBTUSD moved back between the first and the second deviation line between 1900 and 2400 dollars as you can see in the chart.
Considering the current level of volatility it is not excluded to see bitcoin again above 2400$ by the end of this week, the support area that i consider is 1930$ and as very solid support there is always the VWAP’s even though I think it is more likely that the intermediate support at approximately 1700$ will hold.
In case of extreme fall, the support area is updated to 980$-1350$.
Kama moving average is a very interesting filtering technique developed by P.Kaufman.
This moving average has been designed to account for market noise or volatility, KAMA will closely follow prices when swings are small and the noise is low, instead when the price swings widen KAMA will adjust trying to follow prices from a greater distance. This trend-following indicator can be used to identify the overall trend, time turning points and filter price movements when the market is flat avoiding annoying whipsaw false signals trades.
At the moment i’m working on a modified version of this indicator with the help of the tradingview online platform, i added deviation lines from the KAMA average and settings have been optimized to better track XBTUSD price movements on daily and weekly chart.
Here’s an example of this indicator applied to a weekly chart of XBTUSD with some comments.
It’s evident that when the market is flat the KAMA average is relatively stable without giving false signals, when this happens you can try to trade deviation lines to catch bottoms or tops.
About this week the secondary positive deviation line is around 3200$, should you go short at that level? Well is at your own risk to trade against the main tendency that now is bullish, instead you might follow the trend buying at the midline or below it, i’m enough sure that today sell-off is healthy and the price was just moving back to the midline point (KAMA average) from the first positive deviation line.
Beware that because of very large price variation during the same bar the KAMA and its deviation lines can change a bit. The indicator is available for free at tradingview.com, just look for “KAMA – Enky v1.0”.
Your feedback is highly appreciated and will help me improving this trading tool.
XBT / USD weekly price range is 2040$ – 2680$. | With this update I introduce an additional deviation line from the 2-months VWAP reference average.
The 2-month VWAP may be a bit slow now that XBTUSD is experiencing quite high volatility levels, so for an appropriate price range I decided to introduce the fourth line of deviation.
When a market is very strong it is possible that it moves between the first and second line of deviation that acts as support and resistance defining a price channel. At the moment XBTUSD is moving between the second and the third line and it does not happen very often and if you look the RSI you can see that it is oscillating between the overbought threshold (70) and the maximum value of 95-100, an extreme situation if compared to other financial assets.
Fundamentally this is an expanding market that reminds me the exuberance of stock markets from 1996 to 2000, why do I think that? Well just look, for example, at the unsustainable ascension of ethereum, an altcoin that does not have the magic ingredient to solve the scalability problems that all cryptocurrencies have and yet part of the audience perceives this altcoin as different and superior to the others and does not think twice before buying it despite it doubled its value in just six days as well as 20 years ago investors bought technologically overvalued companies that within a few months increased their listing value by two, three times and even more.
Do not get me wrong, because I think the peak is still a few years away but just be careful diversifying in altcoins.
Returning to XBTUSD cross and considering the current level of volatility it is not excluded to see it above 2400$ by the end of the week, the support area I consider is around 2040$ but in case of another profit taking support is at 1720$.
In case of extreme fall the support area is 850-1200$.
Ita version here.
XBT / USD weekly price range is 1667$ – 1893$ | Last week’s profits taking mean that a possible top has been made at about 1900$, for this week I think the price might remain confined inside the resistance zone shown in the chart (1667$-1890$).
Should an increase in volatility materialize it is not excluded that XBTUSD might visit lower levels, for example down to 1440$.
The ALMA average is always firmly up and the RSI dropped a bit down to the overbought threshold at 70. A drop to 1450$ would allow the RSI to finally move back to the oversold zone.
In case of extreme fall the support area is 800$-1100$.