Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range at 4000$-4850$ |The XBTUSD cross has seen a correction during the weekend moving back below the second line of price deviation, I see as important support for this week the price level at 4000 dollars, for those who are willing to buy I would suggest to observe the behavior of the XBTUSD cross around that level.
As already mentioned in the previous update, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a strong position and has been long standing above the VWAP’s first line of deviation and that therefore these corrections are not worrying if limited to 2-3 days.

The average of the RSI oscillator is above the threshold of 70, confirming that the bearish signal of August 26-27 was a false signal as I assumed previously. This indicator is not recently giving clear indications because despite all XBTUSD is maintaining an upward trend without excessive volatility, elements that compromise the proper functioning of any technical oscillator.

In the event of an extreme fall, the support area is 2300-2800 USD

ITA version here.

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Short Term Update: Entering Resistance Price Zone

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBTUSD just break out above the resistance level i pointed out yesterday, This is a good news and we have avoided the slightly bearish scenario I had suggested yesterday. It’s crucial now to confirm the breakout avoiding to move below 4460$.

Yesterday i said also that usually the RSI doesn’t go below 50 during a strong uptrend and that’s exactly what happened, a rebound from the level of 50.

Now the resistance level for this week is updated to 5200$ or the third deviation line of the VWAP and i’m pretty sure that it’ll not reach the 4th deviation line at 5900$ as it never happened in all bitcoin history.

Weekly Update

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-08-28 07_47_50.317
XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 3700$-4460$ | The XBTUSD cross slowed its rise last week togheter with a volatility contraction, failing to break through the all time high at 4480$.

However, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a strong position staying all the time above the first positive price deviation line of the VWAP, but i’ve to notice that for more than ten days it has stayed below the second price deviation line now at 4460$, which is precisely a sign of slowdown.

At this point I think the XBTUSD can make a correction with a strong support located at 3700$ this week or next, this support level should stop any further weakness, I do not expect a VWAP test at 3000$.

The average of the RSI oscillator went below the threshold level of 70, giving a theoretical sell signal, but the RSI is at 50, an intermediate value that normally acts as support during strong upward trends as I have said many times in the past.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 2150-2700 USD.
ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

eng
XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 3450$-4700$ | In the previous update, I was expecting an increase to 4800$ but the market retraced back to the second VWAP deviation line, I still think there is the will to move up but as maximum resistance for this week there is the third deviation line at 4700$.

The correction that has been seen from 4400$ to 4000$ is not uncommon in a bullish trend but further weakness could bring price down to the first deviation line at around 3400$ which I consider a good entry point where to buy.

As I explained in the past in a very strong market the RSI tends to approach the threshold of 70 without crossing below it, here we are in a similar situation with the RSI average moving towards 70 and the RSI itself already just above 70.

To conclude this week is somewhat important to see if there is still the possibility to do a new ATH or not in the short term.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 2000$-2600$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started to publish charts on both bitcoin and some of the most important altcoins using the TradingView.com platform
ITA version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 3200$-4800$ | Our beloved cross pair XBTUSD is showing strength and it will probably test for the first time ever the fourth price deviation line of the 2 months VWAP that I normally don’t use, this 4th line defines the upper bound of the resistance zone ranging from 4200 to 4800 dollars.

I think that XBTUSD cross could reach 4800 dollars this week or the next one considering that all the cryptocurrencies sector is going up massively with bitcoin taking the lead and rising with the fastest speed. Market is appreciating the recent efforts to improve bitcoin’s capacity.

The average RSI oscillator has returned above the overbought area and it will probably stay between 70 and 95-100 when bitcoin is so strong, ALMA moving average is bullish since the bottom of  mid July.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1900-2400 USD

Long Term Update: approaching resistance area

download
Weekly Chart XBTUSD composite index of 7 exchanges

I include in this long-term update the template I mainly use with the tradingview platform that includes my KAMA average with deviation lines tuned for XBTUSD currency pair.
You can see that this currency cross is entering an interesting resistance zone ranging from 3200 to 3900 dollars; I included in the chart also the 2 months VWAP average and the 1 year too.
The average VWAP at 2 months is slightly above the 5 periods KAMA average while the 1-year VWAP is slowly rising and has come close to the negative deviation lines, around 1260 dollars.

It will be interesting to see the behavior of the next few weeks to see if this rise is just a spike or a solid trend, in the latter case it could mean that this year we could also see prices over 4000$, to understand this we will have to wait at least four weeks or this month.

Price range for this week is 2950$-3450$ with ALMA average firmly up and the RSI oscillator not yet overbought.

Weekly Range Update: BCC? We don’t care.

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range at 2200$-3140$ | For this week the range is similar to the previous one because the 2 months VWAP average is basically flat. Last week I was expecting a breakout outside the congestion range with a new maximum or a test down to the VWAP  at 2440$, this latter possibility occurred.
As long as the price continues to remain above the VWAP at 2440$, the situation remains positive.

As for the other indicators I use in this template, you can see that the ALMA mov.average is still up and the RSI has almost tested the overbought zone at 70.

As for the tomorrow’s event I see it as the mere birth of a new altcoin, I do not expect a big impact on the XBTUSD cross price as it is not an unexpected news and has already been discounted by the market , it might have the effect to increase volatility but I don’t think that tomorrow will begin a bearish move due to this event.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1300$-1650$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started to publish charts on both bitcoin and some of the most important altcoins using the TradingView.com platform
ITA version here

Weekly Range Update: new top ahead?

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range estimated at 2400$-3120$ | For this week the range in case of low volatility could be 2600$-2880$, in case of volatility above normal we could see a range of 2400$-3120$ thus implying a new all time high above 2900$.

As you can see in the chart, the price remain bounded between two deviation lines, the first and second; this week the XBTUSD cross should break one of the two levels by retesting the VWAP or making a new all time high between the third and fourth price deviation lines (3120$-3360$).
As i said in some of my earlier updates I still expect a maximum above 2900$ for this year, I still believe that it will happen.

As for the other indicators I use in this template, you can see that the ALMA average is back to bullish and the RSI has quickly tested the oversold area below the threshold of 30 during the 1800$ bottom and now it quickly returned above 50.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is  1250$-1600$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started to publish graphics on both bitcoin and some of the most important altcoins using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version here.

Long Term Update

longtermupdate
XBTUSD Composite Index -Weekly Chart

This chart has been often proposed over the last few weeks for those who follow my updates on Twitter, it represents a weekly chart with my KAMA average and deviation levels. I’ve added 2 months and 1 year VWAP average to get a wider idea of possible valid support/resistance levels.

The sell-off of these days seems to have found support within a support price zone defined by the deviation levels of my KAMA average. It would be ideal to have the bottom above the maximum of the previous cycle, in this case the maximum done at 1350 $ last March 6, better would be to see the bottom inside the area between 1600 and 1900 dollars.
In the current rebound the 2-month VWAP average should act as resistance, for this week we should not see prices above $ 2300 and not below 1600$.

In case of further downside volatility a strong support is 1600$ and 1 year VWAP should provide support at 1150$ in case of a catastrophic event.

ITA Version here.

Short Term Quick Update: VWAP levels

bitstampUSD  1 Day   #1 2017-07-11  11_09_02.567.png
VWAP 2 months + dev.levels

As promised here updated VWAP and price deviation lines. VWAP rose to 2253$ giving a perfect support for yesterday price slump, i think that inside the 1900$-2250$ price zone many buyers will show up. RSI is low but not yet in oversold territory.

Weekly Range Update: Kama Levels

Kama Levels BTCUSD Composite Index
Kama Levels BTCUSD Composite Index

For this week I will use my KAMA indicator with deviation levels available on the TradingView platform for free, the weekly price range in case of low volatility could be 2400$-2650$, in case of normal volatility the expected range is 2300$-2760$.

In the attached chart, the XBTUSD composite index is used and it has been derived using the price data of seven bitcoin exchanges. The formula to use is as follows:

(Poloniex: btcusdt + btce: btcusd + bitfinex: btcusd + bitstamp: btcusd + coinbase: btcusd + kraken: xbtusd + ITbit: btcusd) / 7

This formula on tradingview.com generates a composite index of the XBTUSD cross making the average of 7 exchanges and adding all the volumes togheter, the seven exchanges used are:

  1. Poloniex
  2. BTCE
  3. BitFinex
  4. BitStamp
  5. Coinbase
  6. Kraken
  7. ITbit

Doing this is also useful to see the total volume activity that will give you better results if you are using volume based indicators.

This week, volatility dropped significantly and with the imminent closure of the symmetrical triangle, a pattern that, as I said in the previous update, expects a continuation of the underlying trend.
Next update will include VWAP and deviation levels, but you can still consider the deviation levels calculated by the KAMA average as enough reliable.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1180$-1500$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2400$-2880$ | The XBTUSD cross resists over 2400$ support but as I said last week there is always a risk that it breaks down towards the 2 months VWAP roughly at $1950.

With the ALMA daily moving average pushing bitcoin down and its effort to stay above 2400$ there is some sort of compression also visible in the chart as a symmetric triangle (descending tops and ascending bottoms), as I have said several times in the past  this pattern usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern thus it should end with an upside breakout.

To conclude, the average RSI oscillator is in neutral zone near 50 and the RSI itself has stopped falling without ever entering the oversold area below 30.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1150$-1450$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version Here