Long Term Update

BTCUSD Monthly Chart KAMA Average 5 periods and deviation lines.

Since the last update on February 13 there are not many new developments. The monthly KAMA average is flat, which allows us to calculate fairly reliable levels of support and resistance. As you can see nothing interesting happened with the BTCUSD cross that remains inside the supports and resistance levels (yellow lines).

I have added a new indicator that calculates supports and resistances using as a starting point the close of the previous month (with the idea to forecast next month support/resistance levels), in this case the close of February at about $ 10300. I have used the last 50 months, just over 4 years from the bear market’s lowest point in 2015, to calculate volatility.

The drop we have seen in recent days has reached an intermediate level, -1.5 standard deviations, so I can say that there has not been a level of extreme volatility but not even normal.

My opinion is that the bitcoin will continue to remain for most of the year within the levels calculated with the KAMA (yellow) and therefore remains a good opportunity to buy the price area from 4000 to 5500 dollars, while it is to be evaluated a reduction of any bullish position should the BTCUSD go above 25 thousand dollars.

I also give you some short term indications for the next days, the first resistance is $9500, you might see a Top not exceeding $9500 before the BTCUSD resumes its descent. A break above $10000 would mean that at least in the short term the bearish trend is over.

 

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range is 6500$-7600$ | The resistance zone ranges from $7600 to $8700 and is defined by the two deviation lines furthest from the VWAP.

I think it’s time for a correction to the first support located at $6500, the buying area for this week is from $6500 down to $5400. I think it is very difficult to reach $5400, a minimum at $6500 is much more likely and would not compromise the possibility to see a new ATH this week.

As explained many times in the past, it is important to look at where bottoms and tops are located to understand in which direction is headed our cross XBTUSD , given the great strength of the last two weeks it would be more consistent to have a minimum at $6500 rather then $5400.

To conclude the first level to observe is $6500, the next $5400 and without unexpected negative news it’s very unlikely this week to test the VWAP at $4350.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is updated to 2250-2875 USD.

Since many people asked me more details about these extreme price levels, I want to spend few words on how the support area is calculated in case of a strong drop due to unexpected negative news. I use the last 52 weeks to calculate bitcoin volatility and starting from the closing price of the previous week I project two support values using 6 and 7.5 times the initial value of the calculated volatility. In the past I have explained the concept of the “six sigma”, which concerns the construction quality in industrial processes and I have applied it in this field to calculate support levels and resistance levels which are practically inviolable and which obviously only apply for the current week.
A value of six times is used, with an extra tolerance of 1.5, to arrive at a maximum deviation that uses 7.5 times the initial volatility.

ITA Version here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range 5350$-6600$ | The most obvious thing for this week is that the XBTUSD cross will spend most of the time in a sideway movement between 5350$ and 6000$ considering that it comes from a rise with a strength never seen before since I follow bitcoin.

The buying area is the same reported in the previous update, ranging from 4700$ to 5350$, the resistance zone from 6000$ to 6600$.

The RSI oscillator and its average are both overbought as logical after the sharp rise seen in recent days. I believe that this will be an interim week with the price remaining between 5300 and 6000 USD, so I think a strong bearish movement is unlikely to push bitcoin down to the 2 months VWAP , now at 4100$.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart rises to 2400-3100 USD.

ITA Version here.

Weekly Range Update: Over 4300$

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range at 4300$-4800$ | There is an unusual situation this week, the 2-month VWAP average is flat since the bottom of 15 September, therefore neutral trend for the short term. However, the market has surpassed the resistance value I mentioned last week, at $4300, this is a positive note.

To bring the short-term trend back to the upside we need to stay above $4300 at least for the whole week. The resistances shown in the graph range from 4800 to 5250 dollars.

In the previous update I had suggested to my readers a short term long operation from about 3600$, who followed this “trading idea” will surely have had a decent profit, I invite you all to keep this operation open as long as the XBTUSD cross will remain above $4300, below this level I suggest to close the position.

The RSI, as I said last week, has already given a sign of purchase that is now confirmed by its average which is on the rise, however we have not yet entered the overbought area leaving margin for a possible rise up to $4800.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart rises to 2100-2600 USD.

ITA version here.

Short Tem Update: KAMA Levels

KAMA Levels
KAMA Levels

XBT/USD weekly price range at 4000$-4950$ | The price range for this week is not very different from last week, we have seen until now a weak September with the price drop from the all time high of 5000$ and despite several negative news the XBTUSD has remained above 4000 dollars.
As you can see in the graph the support area using my KAMA indicator ranges from $3600 to $4000, the resistance zone from $4950 to $5350.
If the 4000$ support will work, then an upward cycle with a minimum target of 4950$ could start, otherwise the 2-month VWAP around 3400$ is an important support.
I think it’s unlikely to see bitcoin under the vwap at 2 months for this and also next week, otherwise it would mean that on the weekly chart a medium-long term correction has started; however it’s still early to say and let see if XBTUSD can stay above $4000 this week.

In case of a unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is 2000-2500 USD

ITA Version here

Short Term Update: Entering Resistance Price Zone

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBTUSD just break out above the resistance level i pointed out yesterday, This is a good news and we have avoided the slightly bearish scenario I had suggested yesterday. It’s crucial now to confirm the breakout avoiding to move below 4460$.

Yesterday i said also that usually the RSI doesn’t go below 50 during a strong uptrend and that’s exactly what happened, a rebound from the level of 50.

Now the resistance level for this week is updated to 5200$ or the third deviation line of the VWAP and i’m pretty sure that it’ll not reach the 4th deviation line at 5900$ as it never happened in all bitcoin history.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 3200$-4800$ | Our beloved cross pair XBTUSD is showing strength and it will probably test for the first time ever the fourth price deviation line of the 2 months VWAP that I normally don’t use, this 4th line defines the upper bound of the resistance zone ranging from 4200 to 4800 dollars.

I think that XBTUSD cross could reach 4800 dollars this week or the next one considering that all the cryptocurrencies sector is going up massively with bitcoin taking the lead and rising with the fastest speed. Market is appreciating the recent efforts to improve bitcoin’s capacity.

The average RSI oscillator has returned above the overbought area and it will probably stay between 70 and 95-100 when bitcoin is so strong, ALMA moving average is bullish since the bottom of  mid July.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1900-2400 USD

Weekly Range Update: BCC? We don’t care.

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range at 2200$-3140$ | For this week the range is similar to the previous one because the 2 months VWAP average is basically flat. Last week I was expecting a breakout outside the congestion range with a new maximum or a test down to the VWAP  at 2440$, this latter possibility occurred.
As long as the price continues to remain above the VWAP at 2440$, the situation remains positive.

As for the other indicators I use in this template, you can see that the ALMA mov.average is still up and the RSI has almost tested the overbought zone at 70.

As for the tomorrow’s event I see it as the mere birth of a new altcoin, I do not expect a big impact on the XBTUSD cross price as it is not an unexpected news and has already been discounted by the market , it might have the effect to increase volatility but I don’t think that tomorrow will begin a bearish move due to this event.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1300$-1650$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started to publish charts on both bitcoin and some of the most important altcoins using the TradingView.com platform
ITA version here

Weekly Range Update: new top ahead?

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range estimated at 2400$-3120$ | For this week the range in case of low volatility could be 2600$-2880$, in case of volatility above normal we could see a range of 2400$-3120$ thus implying a new all time high above 2900$.

As you can see in the chart, the price remain bounded between two deviation lines, the first and second; this week the XBTUSD cross should break one of the two levels by retesting the VWAP or making a new all time high between the third and fourth price deviation lines (3120$-3360$).
As i said in some of my earlier updates I still expect a maximum above 2900$ for this year, I still believe that it will happen.

As for the other indicators I use in this template, you can see that the ALMA average is back to bullish and the RSI has quickly tested the oversold area below the threshold of 30 during the 1800$ bottom and now it quickly returned above 50.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is  1250$-1600$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started to publish graphics on both bitcoin and some of the most important altcoins using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2400$-2880$ | The XBTUSD cross resists over 2400$ support but as I said last week there is always a risk that it breaks down towards the 2 months VWAP roughly at $1950.

With the ALMA daily moving average pushing bitcoin down and its effort to stay above 2400$ there is some sort of compression also visible in the chart as a symmetric triangle (descending tops and ascending bottoms), as I have said several times in the past  this pattern usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern thus it should end with an upside breakout.

To conclude, the average RSI oscillator is in neutral zone near 50 and the RSI itself has stopped falling without ever entering the oversold area below 30.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1150$-1450$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version Here

Weekly Top Estimate

Weekly Top Forecast
Weekly Top Forecast

XBTUSD cross has finally break through the first resistance above the mid-line of the price channel now at $640, same price level of the 2 month VWAP. In the attached chart I highlighted the price zone where I expect the next top will fall.

I believe that the next top will fall in this price zone, precisely between 770 and 910 US dollars; because of the long-term trend still up i think that bitcoin could make a maximum higher than the previous one of June, it is not excluded a Top around $ 900 as shown in the weekly chart.

What if i’m Wrong

It exists the possibility that i’m wrong if the dominant timeframe isn’t the weekly.
So what? Well we can switch to another timeframe for example the monthly chart. Here the price channel is much wider then the weekly chart, midpoint is at around $500 usd and the two positive deviation lines are at 870 and 1500 usd. Again we have a resistance similar to the weekly chart, around 870-900.

In order to prove that my weekly scenaro is wrong XBTUSD have to break above 900 usd with strong volume, as you know a High-Volume Breakout signal a move higher possibly to $1000 and beyond.