Long Term Update: 2019 Outlook with entropic methods

Every year i post an outlook using entropic methods explained in the technical section of this blog. Here you can find the 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 forecast update, where you can find more information about this approach.

Updated values for bitcoin (in brackets values of last year) using daily data since August 2010 (average data of 4 main exchanges when possible).

Growth Factor G 1.00088 (1.00280)
Shannon Probability P 0.5222 (0.5384)
Root mean square RMS (see this as volatility) 0.058 (0.059 )

Bitcoin’s entropic values versus the Usd deteriorated in 2018 although volatility has fallen a little bit,  the Growth Factor (G) decreased down to 1.00088% compounded daily or 138% yearly down from 280% of 1y ago. Also the optimal fraction of your total wealth to invest in bitcoin dropped a bit in 2018 with a 4.4% instead of 7.7% of 1y ago (0.522*2=1.044 – 1 = 0.044 or 4.4% roundable to 5%)
Generally these values are still much better then conventional markets except the Shannon Probability that now match the US Stock Markets (around 0.522); it means that out of 100 days an asset goes up 52 days and down for 48 days, on average.

 2019 Price forecast  Full Historical Volatility  Half Historical Volatility
Forecast using only G* ~5269$ ~5269$
Upper bound adding volatility ~16150$ ~9230$
Lower bound subtracting volatility ~1720$ ~3000$

*5269 is obtained with 1st January as a starting price (around 3820$) times (1.00088^365)=~1.37   |   3823*1.37=~5269, just change 365 with the number of days you prefer for a different forecast.

Using different approaches the support area for 2019 is around 1700$-3200$ while the resistance price area is above 9000$.

What went wrong in 2018?

A year ago, I forecasted a maximum top of $121000 never reached during the year. I halved the volatility factor (rms) to find a more realistic price level and i obtained 68000$, a value missed again by BTC/USD.

This market has been very weak all the year but the definitive sign of weakness has been the breaking of the support around six thousand dollars followed by an important minimum at about 3100$, a price level that I showed you a few months ago.
In that tweet i identified an additional support area from 2100$ to 3200$ that so far has not yet been visited.
If possible I recommend to buy inside this price area otherwise another trading opportunity will be to buy on strength when BTCUSD will break above the monthly 5 periods Kama average (i’ll tell you when with a tweet), this average is now around 5000$ but next month will probably drop to 4800$ .


For this year i think that i’ll consider the support/resistance levels obtained with a full volatility value with the result to have for the whole 2019 a good probability to stay inside the 1700$-16000$ price zone.
At the same time i think that at the end of a strong buying climax period, if any, it will be wise to reduce your bitcoin investment if the price goes above 30k USD (price calculated using the equivalent of 1.5 times the historical volatility of bitcoin while the initial 16k usd target is calculated using the historical volatility)

I’m at your disposal for any questions; see you at the next update and Happy New Year!


Long Term Update

BTCUSD Monthly Chart KAMA Average 5 periods and deviation lines.

Since the last update on February 13 there are not many new developments. The monthly KAMA average is flat, which allows us to calculate fairly reliable levels of support and resistance. As you can see nothing interesting happened with the BTCUSD cross that remains inside the supports and resistance levels (yellow lines).

I have added a new indicator that calculates supports and resistances using as a starting point the close of the previous month (with the idea to forecast next month support/resistance levels), in this case the close of February at about $ 10300. I have used the last 50 months, just over 4 years from the bear market’s lowest point in 2015, to calculate volatility.

The drop we have seen in recent days has reached an intermediate level, -1.5 standard deviations, so I can say that there has not been a level of extreme volatility but not even normal.

My opinion is that the bitcoin will continue to remain for most of the year within the levels calculated with the KAMA (yellow) and therefore remains a good opportunity to buy the price area from 4000 to 5500 dollars, while it is to be evaluated a reduction of any bullish position should the BTCUSD go above 25 thousand dollars.

I also give you some short term indications for the next days, the first resistance is $9500, you might see a Top not exceeding $9500 before the BTCUSD resumes its descent. A break above $10000 would mean that at least in the short term the bearish trend is over.


ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range 6800$-8600$ | This week the 2-month VWAP updates to 6100$ from last week’s 4800$; new data is replacing the old ones and it may happen that you have some slight changes on the price level of the reference average.

The resistance zone ranges from 8600$ to 9800$ and is defined by the 2nd and 3rd deviation line of the 2-month VWAP.

The support area ranges from $6100 to $6800 and is defined by VWAP and an intermediate level between the VWAP and the 1st deviation line.

I think it is very difficult to see a test down to the VWAP at $6100, if there were to be some profit taking the market should not fall below $6800, considering that the RSI oscillator turned upside without testing the oversold area i still believe that this market will go over 8000$ eventually after a small correction towards our first support at 6800$.

The other template I use on Tradingview with KAMA average and deviation levels is very similar to this one; the weekly KAMA is at 5800$ not far from the 6100$ of the 2-month VWAP.
The resistance zone is 8000$-9300$, slightly lower than the one presented with this update of 8600$-9800$.
Basically we have a decent correlation between the two templates (VWAP using Sierrachart and KAMA using Tradingview. com)

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is updated to 3200-4000 USD.

ITA Version Here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range is 6500$-7600$ | The resistance zone ranges from $7600 to $8700 and is defined by the two deviation lines furthest from the VWAP.

I think it’s time for a correction to the first support located at $6500, the buying area for this week is from $6500 down to $5400. I think it is very difficult to reach $5400, a minimum at $6500 is much more likely and would not compromise the possibility to see a new ATH this week.

As explained many times in the past, it is important to look at where bottoms and tops are located to understand in which direction is headed our cross XBTUSD , given the great strength of the last two weeks it would be more consistent to have a minimum at $6500 rather then $5400.

To conclude the first level to observe is $6500, the next $5400 and without unexpected negative news it’s very unlikely this week to test the VWAP at $4350.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is updated to 2250-2875 USD.

Since many people asked me more details about these extreme price levels, I want to spend few words on how the support area is calculated in case of a strong drop due to unexpected negative news. I use the last 52 weeks to calculate bitcoin volatility and starting from the closing price of the previous week I project two support values using 6 and 7.5 times the initial value of the calculated volatility. In the past I have explained the concept of the “six sigma”, which concerns the construction quality in industrial processes and I have applied it in this field to calculate support levels and resistance levels which are practically inviolable and which obviously only apply for the current week.
A value of six times is used, with an extra tolerance of 1.5, to arrive at a maximum deviation that uses 7.5 times the initial volatility.

ITA Version here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range 5350$-6600$ | The most obvious thing for this week is that the XBTUSD cross will spend most of the time in a sideway movement between 5350$ and 6000$ considering that it comes from a rise with a strength never seen before since I follow bitcoin.

The buying area is the same reported in the previous update, ranging from 4700$ to 5350$, the resistance zone from 6000$ to 6600$.

The RSI oscillator and its average are both overbought as logical after the sharp rise seen in recent days. I believe that this will be an interim week with the price remaining between 5300 and 6000 USD, so I think a strong bearish movement is unlikely to push bitcoin down to the 2 months VWAP , now at 4100$.

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart rises to 2400-3100 USD.

ITA Version here.

Weekly Range Update

bitstampUSD 1 Day #1 2017-09-18 09_48_01.095
XBTUSD Daily Chart – VWAP Levels

XBT/USD weekly price range at 3650$-4300$ | As I wrote on twitter the market found support within the support area of my previous update that had a lower limit of $2800. I would like to point out that I will not increase my long-term position opened between 2014 and 2015, but I will tell you when there will be a buying opportunity.

Today’s reaction is positive and I believe that in 1-2 days the ALMA moving average will turn upwards together with the average of the RSI oscillator.

The RSI has already given a purchase signal, but it is better to confirm it when its average slope will also turn positive.
When these conditions are met we will have a buying opportunity.

In the event of a catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart remains unchanged at 2000-2500 US Dollars.

ITA version here.

Short Tem Update: KAMA Levels

KAMA Levels
KAMA Levels

XBT/USD weekly price range at 4000$-4950$ | The price range for this week is not very different from last week, we have seen until now a weak September with the price drop from the all time high of 5000$ and despite several negative news the XBTUSD has remained above 4000 dollars.
As you can see in the graph the support area using my KAMA indicator ranges from $3600 to $4000, the resistance zone from $4950 to $5350.
If the 4000$ support will work, then an upward cycle with a minimum target of 4950$ could start, otherwise the 2-month VWAP around 3400$ is an important support.
I think it’s unlikely to see bitcoin under the vwap at 2 months for this and also next week, otherwise it would mean that on the weekly chart a medium-long term correction has started; however it’s still early to say and let see if XBTUSD can stay above $4000 this week.

In case of a unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is 2000-2500 USD

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range at 4000$-4850$ |The XBTUSD cross has seen a correction during the weekend moving back below the second line of price deviation, I see as important support for this week the price level at 4000 dollars, for those who are willing to buy I would suggest to observe the behavior of the XBTUSD cross around that level.
As already mentioned in the previous update, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a strong position and has been long standing above the VWAP’s first line of deviation and that therefore these corrections are not worrying if limited to 2-3 days.

The average of the RSI oscillator is above the threshold of 70, confirming that the bearish signal of August 26-27 was a false signal as I assumed previously. This indicator is not recently giving clear indications because despite all XBTUSD is maintaining an upward trend without excessive volatility, elements that compromise the proper functioning of any technical oscillator.

In the event of an extreme fall, the support area is 2300-2800 USD

ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 3200$-4800$ | Our beloved cross pair XBTUSD is showing strength and it will probably test for the first time ever the fourth price deviation line of the 2 months VWAP that I normally don’t use, this 4th line defines the upper bound of the resistance zone ranging from 4200 to 4800 dollars.

I think that XBTUSD cross could reach 4800 dollars this week or the next one considering that all the cryptocurrencies sector is going up massively with bitcoin taking the lead and rising with the fastest speed. Market is appreciating the recent efforts to improve bitcoin’s capacity.

The average RSI oscillator has returned above the overbought area and it will probably stay between 70 and 95-100 when bitcoin is so strong, ALMA moving average is bullish since the bottom of  mid July.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1900-2400 USD

Weekly Range Update: new top ahead?

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range estimated at 2400$-3120$ | For this week the range in case of low volatility could be 2600$-2880$, in case of volatility above normal we could see a range of 2400$-3120$ thus implying a new all time high above 2900$.

As you can see in the chart, the price remain bounded between two deviation lines, the first and second; this week the XBTUSD cross should break one of the two levels by retesting the VWAP or making a new all time high between the third and fourth price deviation lines (3120$-3360$).
As i said in some of my earlier updates I still expect a maximum above 2900$ for this year, I still believe that it will happen.

As for the other indicators I use in this template, you can see that the ALMA average is back to bullish and the RSI has quickly tested the oversold area below the threshold of 30 during the 1800$ bottom and now it quickly returned above 50.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is  1250$-1600$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started to publish graphics on both bitcoin and some of the most important altcoins using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2400$-2880$ | The XBTUSD cross resists over 2400$ support but as I said last week there is always a risk that it breaks down towards the 2 months VWAP roughly at $1950.

With the ALMA daily moving average pushing bitcoin down and its effort to stay above 2400$ there is some sort of compression also visible in the chart as a symmetric triangle (descending tops and ascending bottoms), as I have said several times in the past  this pattern usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern thus it should end with an upside breakout.

To conclude, the average RSI oscillator is in neutral zone near 50 and the RSI itself has stopped falling without ever entering the oversold area below 30.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1150$-1450$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version Here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 1930$ – 2360$ | The 2-month VWAP is slowly rising and is now about  1500$ which is an important support and as long as the price remains above it the underlying trend is be upward.

In the last update I mentioned that when a market is very strong it can move between the first and the second line of price deviation from the VWAP except for rare cases where it can be between the second and the third line; after last week’s sell-off the cross XBTUSD moved back between the first and the second deviation line between 1900 and 2400 dollars as you can see in the chart.

Considering the current level of volatility it is not excluded to see bitcoin again above 2400$ by the end of this week, the support area that i consider is 1930$ and as very solid support there is always the VWAP’s even though I think it is more likely that the intermediate support at approximately 1700$ will hold.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is updated to 980$-1350$.

ITA version here.