Weekly Range Update: Kama Levels

Kama Levels BTCUSD Composite Index
Kama Levels BTCUSD Composite Index

For this week I will use my KAMA indicator with deviation levels available on the TradingView platform for free, the weekly price range in case of low volatility could be 2400$-2650$, in case of normal volatility the expected range is 2300$-2760$.

In the attached chart, the XBTUSD composite index is used and it has been derived using the price data of seven bitcoin exchanges. The formula to use is as follows:

(Poloniex: btcusdt + btce: btcusd + bitfinex: btcusd + bitstamp: btcusd + coinbase: btcusd + kraken: xbtusd + ITbit: btcusd) / 7

This formula on tradingview.com generates a composite index of the XBTUSD cross making the average of 7 exchanges and adding all the volumes togheter, the seven exchanges used are:

  1. Poloniex
  2. BTCE
  3. BitFinex
  4. BitStamp
  5. Coinbase
  6. Kraken
  7. ITbit

Doing this is also useful to see the total volume activity that will give you better results if you are using volume based indicators.

This week, volatility dropped significantly and with the imminent closure of the symmetrical triangle, a pattern that, as I said in the previous update, expects a continuation of the underlying trend.
Next update will include VWAP and deviation levels, but you can still consider the deviation levels calculated by the KAMA average as enough reliable.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1180$-1500$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2400$-2880$ | The XBTUSD cross resists over 2400$ support but as I said last week there is always a risk that it breaks down towards the 2 months VWAP roughly at $1950.

With the ALMA daily moving average pushing bitcoin down and its effort to stay above 2400$ there is some sort of compression also visible in the chart as a symmetric triangle (descending tops and ascending bottoms), as I have said several times in the past  this pattern usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern thus it should end with an upside breakout.

To conclude, the average RSI oscillator is in neutral zone near 50 and the RSI itself has stopped falling without ever entering the oversold area below 30.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1150$-1450$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version Here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range at 2100$-2900$ | The VWAP is just below 1700$ and the XBTUSD cross is always above it confirming mid-term bullishness.

I have told you many times that when a market is in a very strong position it can move between the first and second price deviation line except for rare cases where it can be between the second and the third line.
From a couple of days back it’s above the second price deviation line and I think that the current rally will continue pushing the bitcoin towards 2900$.

The average of the RSI oscillator is just below the overbought area and I think that bitcoin will ignore this indicator that may remain overbought for a certain period of time due to the fact that the dominant timeframe is the weekly one and as mentioned earlier I think this aspect can push bitcoin over the previous maximum of 2750$.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1050-1450 USD.

ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 1930$ – 2360$ | The 2-month VWAP is slowly rising and is now about  1500$ which is an important support and as long as the price remains above it the underlying trend is be upward.

In the last update I mentioned that when a market is very strong it can move between the first and the second line of price deviation from the VWAP except for rare cases where it can be between the second and the third line; after last week’s sell-off the cross XBTUSD moved back between the first and the second deviation line between 1900 and 2400 dollars as you can see in the chart.

Considering the current level of volatility it is not excluded to see bitcoin again above 2400$ by the end of this week, the support area that i consider is 1930$ and as very solid support there is always the VWAP’s even though I think it is more likely that the intermediate support at approximately 1700$ will hold.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is updated to 980$-1350$.

ITA version here.

Short Term Update: 3 days VWAP

eng
3 Days VWAP + deviation lines

After a decisive breakout of the 1480$ weekly resistance level and because of the high volatility i decided to zoom in with an intraday chart (60 min bar). 
Here the VWAP is computed using only the last 3 days and to compute the deviation lines only the volatility of the last 3 days is used, this allow me to have a snapshot of the current situation.
When a market is strong it usually stays above the first deviation line and the second one acts as a resistance, I think that for the rest of the week XBTUSD should stay below 1670$-1750$ with a support area right below the 3 days VWAP (1400$-1500$).
This market is very bullish and it’s quickly accelerating, the volatility i was expecting in my previous update is finally coming to the market.

Long Term Update: Weekly Price Channel

weekly_chart_xbtusd
Weekly Chart – Price Channel

It seems that a correction has started on the weekly chart although the ALMA average is still bullish and not yet 100% confirming the move; sometimes a return to the mean or average is healthy for an uptrend, here the level is around 825$.

First deviation line is 650$ and the second one 530$. I fail to see an event strong enough to increase the volatility level so much to push this pair down to 530$, i remain confident that it’s not going so low and that the 650-825 usd price zone is a good support for long term buyers.

It is needed a close of this weekly bar above 1030$ to avert the risk of a correction of some weeks. The weekly RSI is above its mid-line or 50; in a strong uptrend the RSI usually stays above it as XBTUSD is doing since october 2015.

Weekly Range Update

eng
XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range 1200$-1425$ | Also this weekly range has been calculated using twice the volatility level commonly used until the situation will stabilize after the great volatility seen during the Sec decision about the etf.

The average ALMA is about to turn upward and the RSI oscillator backed off from overbought territory but not yet gone into oversold.

I think we need a move to new highs around 1400$, it would be a good signal to confirm the uptrend. About the daily bar of 10-11 March i think that this market cleared weak hands, I am tempted to interpret this as a bullish signal.

In cases of extreme fall the support area is updated to 650-790 US dollars.

ITA version here.

Offtopic: Bubble Mode ON

ethusd
ETHUSD daily chart

After many requests for a possible target i tried to find a solution with a very long term price interpolation channel of this popular altcoin. I did my best to find a decent volatility factor to compute the deviation lines, the attached chart is my best fit.

I think that the next stop is around 35$ (two standard deviation), i’d be very surprised to see this altcoin above it but anything is possible at poloniex, the realm of newbies and whales:)

Aniway the very first resistance has already been broken; I, therefore, think there are chance to reach 35$ at bubble peak.

About Dash, the six sigma deviation line is around 82$, hardly this altcoin will stay above it for a prolonged period of time, eventually a quick spike to 95$-100$ before capitulation. The term “six sigma” comes from the industry and it means that if one product has six standard deviations between the process mean and the nearest specification limit, practically no items produced will fail to meet specifications; at the same time here we are almost certain that at least in the short term the price will remain below it.

Weekly Range Update: waiting the Sec

XBTUSD daily chart - VWAP Lines
XBTUSD daily chart – VWAP Lines

XBT / USD weekly price range 1125$- 1300$ | The range for this week is intended valid until the SEC decision of next 11 March whether to approve or not the first bitcoin ETF; this is an event that can create additional volatility that can push this market well beyond the 1300$ resistance or generate a violent correction down to the VWAP, now at ~950$.

The ALMA moving average remains firmly upward; as you can see in the left attached chart in a strong uptrend hardly the minimum of the day is below this reference average I use.

The RSI oscillator is in overbought zone and essentially confirms that the market is strong but still a top could be in the making. There is also a strong resistance in the weekly chart around 1370$-1400$.

In cases of extreme fall the support area is updated to 610-740 USD.

ITA version here at bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update: stronger then expected

xbtusd daily chart
xbtusd daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 935$-1095$ |Last week the cross XBTUSD has been stronger than expected so for this week the resistance is raised to 1100$, the support remains the VWAP at 935$.
The ALMA average has turned upward with the break of the resistance at 1015$ while t
he oscillator RSI has given a sell signal last week that has been ignored by the market confirming the strength of the bitcoin-dollar cross. The RSI has however pulled away from the overbought zone but remained above the mid-point of 50, thus remaining in bullish territory.

In short, the market is strong and has ignored my bearish worries of seven days ago; regarding my long-term position opened since 2014 I’ll continue to maintain it until I see some serious bearish indications  on the weekly and monthly chart. I remind everyone that the average carrying price of my position is around 570$ (three units opened at 681$ , 615$ and 417$ ).

In cases of extreme fall the support area is updated to 650-760 US dollars.

ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

xbtusd daily chart
xbtusd daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range $885-$1090 | As long as the XBTUSD pair remains above the medium term VWAP I don’t see any risks to the current uptrend to continue. The average ALMA is upwards since twenty days and the price has entered the resistance price zone published in the previous update, because of this I’m skeptic to see a further rise above $ 1090 without a correction considering also that the RSI oscillator has entered overbought territory, honestly I think that the odds of a correction are increased but the minimum should occur over the VWAP, above the $880 mark.

As support the VWAP is again valid and is updated to $885 even though first I consider as an intermediate support the $940 price level.

In cases of extreme fall the support area lies between 600 and 700 US.

Italian version at bitchanger.com

Weekly Update

eng
Daily Chart XBTUSD

XBT / USD weekly price range is unchanged at 865$-965$ | The XBTUSD cross remained above the VWAP and you can see in the attached chart that a price congestion is building up around $ 910; also for this week the main resistance is the price zone between the first and the second VWAP deviation line line between 965 and 1070 usd.
About support the VWAP is still valid and flat since several weeks,  around 865$.

The average daily RSI oscillator is approaching the overbought zone, i’ll observe carefully this market once the oscillator has come into this area (RSI above 70-80).

In cases of extreme fall the support area ranges from 600 to 700 USD.

Italian version here at bitchanger.com