Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT/USD weekly price range 6800$-8600$ | This week the 2-month VWAP updates to 6100$ from last week’s 4800$; new data is replacing the old ones and it may happen that you have some slight changes on the price level of the reference average.

The resistance zone ranges from 8600$ to 9800$ and is defined by the 2nd and 3rd deviation line of the 2-month VWAP.

The support area ranges from $6100 to $6800 and is defined by VWAP and an intermediate level between the VWAP and the 1st deviation line.

I think it is very difficult to see a test down to the VWAP at $6100, if there were to be some profit taking the market should not fall below $6800, considering that the RSI oscillator turned upside without testing the oversold area i still believe that this market will go over 8000$ eventually after a small correction towards our first support at 6800$.

The other template I use on Tradingview with KAMA average and deviation levels is very similar to this one; the weekly KAMA is at 5800$ not far from the 6100$ of the 2-month VWAP.
The resistance zone is 8000$-9300$, slightly lower than the one presented with this update of 8600$-9800$.
Basically we have a decent correlation between the two templates (VWAP using Sierrachart and KAMA using Tradingview. com)

In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is updated to 3200-4000 USD.

ITA Version Here.

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Short Tem Update: KAMA Levels

KAMA Levels
KAMA Levels

XBT/USD weekly price range at 4000$-4950$ | The price range for this week is not very different from last week, we have seen until now a weak September with the price drop from the all time high of 5000$ and despite several negative news the XBTUSD has remained above 4000 dollars.
As you can see in the graph the support area using my KAMA indicator ranges from $3600 to $4000, the resistance zone from $4950 to $5350.
If the 4000$ support will work, then an upward cycle with a minimum target of 4950$ could start, otherwise the 2-month VWAP around 3400$ is an important support.
I think it’s unlikely to see bitcoin under the vwap at 2 months for this and also next week, otherwise it would mean that on the weekly chart a medium-long term correction has started; however it’s still early to say and let see if XBTUSD can stay above $4000 this week.

In case of a unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is 2000-2500 USD

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update: Kama Levels

Kama Levels BTCUSD Composite Index
Kama Levels BTCUSD Composite Index

For this week I will use my KAMA indicator with deviation levels available on the TradingView platform for free, the weekly price range in case of low volatility could be 2400$-2650$, in case of normal volatility the expected range is 2300$-2760$.

In the attached chart, the XBTUSD composite index is used and it has been derived using the price data of seven bitcoin exchanges. The formula to use is as follows:

(Poloniex: btcusdt + btce: btcusd + bitfinex: btcusd + bitstamp: btcusd + coinbase: btcusd + kraken: xbtusd + ITbit: btcusd) / 7

This formula on tradingview.com generates a composite index of the XBTUSD cross making the average of 7 exchanges and adding all the volumes togheter, the seven exchanges used are:

  1. Poloniex
  2. BTCE
  3. BitFinex
  4. BitStamp
  5. Coinbase
  6. Kraken
  7. ITbit

Doing this is also useful to see the total volume activity that will give you better results if you are using volume based indicators.

This week, volatility dropped significantly and with the imminent closure of the symmetrical triangle, a pattern that, as I said in the previous update, expects a continuation of the underlying trend.
Next update will include VWAP and deviation levels, but you can still consider the deviation levels calculated by the KAMA average as enough reliable.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1180$-1500$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform

ITA Version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD dailychart
XBTUSD dailychart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 2400$-2880$ | The XBTUSD cross resists over 2400$ support but as I said last week there is always a risk that it breaks down towards the 2 months VWAP roughly at $1950.

With the ALMA daily moving average pushing bitcoin down and its effort to stay above 2400$ there is some sort of compression also visible in the chart as a symmetric triangle (descending tops and ascending bottoms), as I have said several times in the past  this pattern usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern thus it should end with an upside breakout.

To conclude, the average RSI oscillator is in neutral zone near 50 and the RSI itself has stopped falling without ever entering the oversold area below 30.

In case of a catastrophic event the support area is 1150$-1450$.

Follow me also on Twitter where I started tweeting charts about bitcoin and some altcoins too using the TradingView.com platform
ITA Version Here

Weekly Range Update

eng
Daily Chart XBTUSD

XBT / USD weekly price range is 865$-965$ | The XBTUSD cross has moved above the VWAP regaining a position of strength, for this week the main resistance is the price zone between the first and the second deviation line or the 965$-1070$ price range; This technical rebound should stop in this price range (970$-1070$ ) now we need to wait to see where will be done the next relative maximum to understand how it is positioned in the medium term, given the situation of the weekly chart I expect that the next top will be lower then the other one of 3 January done approx at 1170$.

As support it is valid the first negative deviation line VWAP at around $ 765 although I feel that the last minimum done at $750 is confirmed and i think to be right considering now the VWAP at 865$ as main support for this week and probably the next one.

The daily RSI oscillator average has reversed to the upside but without going into oversold first, thus great buying opportunities have not yet been materialized.

In cases of extreme fall the support area run from 590 to 680 USD.

ITA version here at bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

 

eng
Daily Chart XBTUSD

XBT / USD weekly price range forecast 750$-855$ | The main resistance is the VWAP at 855$ and because this market dropped below it for the first time in months we can consider the cross XBTUSD in a weak position and the top at 1140$ done on January 3 is confirmed; to understand how it is positioned in the medium term our beloved BTC’s we need to see where the next bottom will be done.

 

As support is valid the first negative deviation line of the VWAP at around 750$ although I feel that the next minimum might be around 640$ or the second negative price deviation line of our mid-term VWAP .

In the previous update I wrote about my doubts if the VWAP at 850$ would have hold a second time the decline from the top after stopping that drop already once; the market indeed fell further but remained inside the support area that I indicated at that time.

The average of the RSI daily oscillator has finally drop near oversold levels, not giving a buy signal yet.

In cases of extreme drop support is price area between 580 and 660 USD.

Italian version here at bitchanger.com