Long Term Update: Weekly Chart

It’s has been a while that i don’t post a long term weekly chart and i think it can help us to better understand where XBT/USD is headed. Price is not going to take off any time soon (it recently moved below the $360 support price i was monitoring in the last days), but more likely to continue its fall towards a new bottom below the 266$ April 2013 top, i expect the bottom to be somewhere near $220 for different reasons.
First, i’ve there at $220 an important deviation line of the 1 year VWAP , second considering actual bitcoin volatility it is very unlikely to move below $200 in the next two months (end of the year), and for “unlikely” i mean a 5% possibility (2 sigma event).
And third, and it is the most interesting, miners production cost for 1 btc ranges from $100 to $200 depending from their hardware amortization expense and running costs, mainly electricity. As bitcoin approaches their production cost value as more miners will feel the pressure and it’s difficult to imagine their reactions but i’m confident that they will avoid to panic sell because they must protect their business at the cost of some temporary losses or missed profits.
If they instead decide to stop the mining farms and to liquidate most of their accumulated bitcoins then it might repeat what we’ve seen in 2011, a severe bear market with dropping network difficulty. Bottom? probably around 80$-100$, a nice 3 sigma event or 1% chance to happen but it is very, very unlikely to happen.