Long Term Update: Weekly Top Forecast

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Weekly Chart – Price regression channel + Dev.Lines

It’s pretty obvious that XBTUSD is staying above the central line of the price channel shown in the weekly chart. The low of 5 weeks ago caused by bitcoin unlimited has been made above the midline of the channel and this is a bullish indication.

As you know, this indicator calculates a regression on past prices and projects resistance and support lines using the average volatility of the underlying asset, if there is sudden shift in volatility the indicator will try to adapt to this new information coming in and the deviation lines will change accordingly.

If volatility change is not dramatic the calculated resistance and support lines will remain fairly stable; at the moment the new resistance area where the next top might occur is between ~1250$ and ~1410$.

As a side note i’d like to add some words about the next top, it is very important to make it above the previous one to confirm the underlying bullish tendency; if bitcoin fails and moves below 890$ the implications would be bearish enough to see a minimum just above 700$.

ITA version here.

Weekly Price Range Update

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XBTUSD daily chart – VWAP + deviation levels

XBT / USD weekly price range is 1150$-1335$ | The market is still in a strong position above the VWAP and is near the resistance level of the previous week (1235$), if a break materializes above the first resistance level at 1245$ there is room for an attack to the all-time high around 1350 $; as support to my hypothesis there is the fact that the last two bottoms happened at 750$ and 900$, two higher lows reflecting the fact that the underlying trend is still firmly upward and it is causing higher highs and lows. With this logic the next maximum should be above 1300$-1350$.

The ALMA average is bullish and the RSI has entered overbought zone. From now on there is a tangible risk that a maximum on the daily chart is forming especially if there is a strong increase of volatility.

In cases of extreme drop the support area is now 700-875 USD.

ITA version here

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD daily chart - VWAP Lines
XBTUSD daily chart – VWAP Lines

XBT / USD weekly price range is 1050$-1230$ | The market moved back to a strong position firmly above the VWAP level and it is close to a first level of resistance at 1140$, I think that there is room to reach the second resistance level at 1230$.

The average ALMA returned bullish and the RSI has moved away from the oversold area exactly what I was expecting last week: a positive reaction.
About altcoins i know that many of you are interested but i consider them too small for a proper and reliable analysis, in fact also bitcoin isn’t enough big; because of this for the time being there will be sporadic updates about altcoins.

In cases of extreme fall the support area is 670$-860$.
ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

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XBTUSD daily chart – VWAP and deviation lines

XBT / USD weekly price range is  900$-1125$ | The range for this week is similar to the previous week. XBTUSD remains in a weak position below the VWAP and below the ALMA moving average.
I think that the support at 900$ is solid; resistance levels at 1125$ and 1235$.

The ALMA average is still bearish and the RSI oscillator has made a double bottom just above the oversold thresold. I see the possibility of a move above the VWAP up to 1100$, at the same time a failure to pass 1010$ would be bearish.

In cases of extreme fall the support area is 650-825 US dollars.
ITA version here.

Weekly Range Update

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XBTUSD Daily Chart

XBT / USD weekly price range is 885$-1130$ | The range of this week gives a support area at 880$ and resistsance from 1130$.

In the previous weekly update I said that a close of the weekly bar above 1030$ would have averted the risk of a weekly correction, the market has made a short test above this level and then quickly retreated, so I think that the chances to make a new low are high Determining a candidate level for a bottom isn’t complicated with my long term price regression channel on the weekly chart, this level is 830$ as I showed in my previous long-term update.

The ALMA  average has obviously turned negative and the RSI oscillator is almost into oversold territory.

In cases of extreme fall the support area is 650-825 US dollars.

ITA version here.

Long Term Update: Weekly Price Channel

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Weekly Chart – Price Channel

It seems that a correction has started on the weekly chart although the ALMA average is still bullish and not yet 100% confirming the move; sometimes a return to the mean or average is healthy for an uptrend, here the level is around 825$.

First deviation line is 650$ and the second one 530$. I fail to see an event strong enough to increase the volatility level so much to push this pair down to 530$, i remain confident that it’s not going so low and that the 650-825 usd price zone is a good support for long term buyers.

It is needed a close of this weekly bar above 1030$ to avert the risk of a correction of some weeks. The weekly RSI is above its mid-line or 50; in a strong uptrend the RSI usually stays above it as XBTUSD is doing since october 2015.

Weekly Range Update

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XBTUSD daily chart

XBT / USD weekly price range 1200$-1425$ | Also this weekly range has been calculated using twice the volatility level commonly used until the situation will stabilize after the great volatility seen during the Sec decision about the etf.

The average ALMA is about to turn upward and the RSI oscillator backed off from overbought territory but not yet gone into oversold.

I think we need a move to new highs around 1400$, it would be a good signal to confirm the uptrend. About the daily bar of 10-11 March i think that this market cleared weak hands, I am tempted to interpret this as a bullish signal.

In cases of extreme fall the support area is updated to 650-790 US dollars.

ITA version here.

Offtopic: Bubble Mode ON

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ETHUSD daily chart

After many requests for a possible target i tried to find a solution with a very long term price interpolation channel of this popular altcoin. I did my best to find a decent volatility factor to compute the deviation lines, the attached chart is my best fit.

I think that the next stop is around 35$ (two standard deviation), i’d be very surprised to see this altcoin above it but anything is possible at poloniex, the realm of newbies and whales:)

Aniway the very first resistance has already been broken; I, therefore, think there are chance to reach 35$ at bubble peak.

About Dash, the six sigma deviation line is around 82$, hardly this altcoin will stay above it for a prolonged period of time, eventually a quick spike to 95$-100$ before capitulation. The term “six sigma” comes from the industry and it means that if one product has six standard deviations between the process mean and the nearest specification limit, practically no items produced will fail to meet specifications; at the same time here we are almost certain that at least in the short term the price will remain below it.

Weekly Range Update: waiting the Sec

XBTUSD daily chart - VWAP Lines
XBTUSD daily chart – VWAP Lines

XBT / USD weekly price range 1125$- 1300$ | The range for this week is intended valid until the SEC decision of next 11 March whether to approve or not the first bitcoin ETF; this is an event that can create additional volatility that can push this market well beyond the 1300$ resistance or generate a violent correction down to the VWAP, now at ~950$.

The ALMA moving average remains firmly upward; as you can see in the left attached chart in a strong uptrend hardly the minimum of the day is below this reference average I use.

The RSI oscillator is in overbought zone and essentially confirms that the market is strong but still a top could be in the making. There is also a strong resistance in the weekly chart around 1370$-1400$.

In cases of extreme fall the support area is updated to 610-740 USD.

ITA version here at bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update: again a strong market

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XBTUSD daily chart

XBT/USD weekly price range 1025$-1270$ | Also this week the cross XBTUSD has been stronger than expected so I decided to propose something different for this week about the calculation of the levels of our 60 days volume VWAP. The resistance zone is wider and goes up to 1270$, the VWAP is slightly moving up and now is at 945$ though more probably the intermediate level at 1025$ should hold any violent intraday corrections. The ALMA average remains firmly upward.

The RSI oscillator is returned in the overbought zone and essentially is confirming that the market is strong but i still think that an intermediate top might form soon, not eventually a yearly top because i expect higher prices later this year.

About the calculation of the VWAP deviation lines I doubled the volatility coefficient for this week because since few weeks the volatility is high and often this market has broken through my resistance lines. Just for curiosity the third deviation  line pass at 1432$.

In cases of extreme fall the support area is 665-775 US dollars.

ITA version here.