XBT/USD weekly price range 5350$-6600$ | The most obvious thing for this week is that the XBTUSD cross will spend most of the time in a sideway movement between 5350$ and 6000$ considering that it comes from a rise with a strength never seen before since I follow bitcoin.
The buying area is the same reported in the previous update, ranging from 4700$ to 5350$, the resistance zone from 6000$ to 6600$.
The RSI oscillator and its average are both overbought as logical after the sharp rise seen in recent days. I believe that this will be an interim week with the price remaining between 5300 and 6000 USD, so I think a strong bearish movement is unlikely to push bitcoin down to the 2 months VWAP , now at 4100$.
In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart rises to 2400-3100 USD.
Updated weekly price range is 4730$-6600$ | It is interesting to note that the cross XBTUSD after two days of hesitation exactly on the second deviation line of our 2-month VWAP average then violently broke the resistance level to reach for the first time in its history the fourth line of deviation of the VWAP , this is a phenomenal sign of market strength.
Theoretically, the point where it broke the second deviation line (4800$) should now serve as a support in case of a price retracement but it is more likely that for the next two-three days the support level will be the third line at 5350$.
For who sold before these insane price levels it might be wise to enter again between 4800$ and 5350$.
Should the price levels, mentioned in this update, changes significantly I will keep you updated with Twitter.
XBT/USD weekly price range unchanged at 4300$-4800$ | The two bearish days of the beginning of last week had let me think that we would be back towards the 2 months VWAP then from last Wednesday the market has returned to its original trend. These occasional weaknesses may indeed last a few days and then revert back to the original trend, which is currently on the rise.
The resistance levels remain unchanged for this week as well and are shown in the graph at 4800 and 5250 dollars.
The RSI together with its moving average have entered the overbought zone, before using this oscillator to open a bearish position, it must be confirmed by some pattern of reversal that at the moment I don’t see leaving therefore a margin for an eventual rise to 4800$.
Some of you often ask me about Bitcoin Cash, I had a support to about 0.080 but it was broken, the next support is at 0.058 which is a triple bottom along with the bttoms made on 6 and 16 August ’17. In general, Bitcoin Cash is clearly bearish, however in case of a strong bullish spike the first resistance is at 0.107
In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart rises to 2200-2700 USD.
XBT/USD weekly price range at 4300$-4800$ | There is an unusual situation this week, the 2-month VWAP average is flat since the bottom of 15 September, therefore neutral trend for the short term. However, the market has surpassed the resistance value I mentioned last week, at $4300, this is a positive note.
To bring the short-term trend back to the upside we need to stay above $4300 at least for the whole week. The resistances shown in the graph range from 4800 to 5250 dollars.
In the previous update I had suggested to my readers a short term long operation from about 3600$, who followed this “trading idea” will surely have had a decent profit, I invite you all to keep this operation open as long as the XBTUSD cross will remain above $4300, below this level I suggest to close the position.
The RSI, as I said last week, has already given a sign of purchase that is now confirmed by its average which is on the rise, however we have not yet entered the overbought area leaving margin for a possible rise up to $4800.
In the event of an unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart rises to 2100-2600 USD.
XBT/USD weekly price range at 3070$-4300$ | The situation is unchanged compared to the previous week, the market is flat as well as the 2 months VWAP and basically also the ALMA average, slightly negative almost flat.
By now you all know that more or less after a week of volatility contraction bitcoin breaks up/down with a peak of volatility; I expect soon an increase in volatility that will soon resolve this neutral phase that the XBTUSD cross is going through, the hard part is that i can’t say which direction it’ll take.
Investors seem to have digested the negative news of this month, first China then the negative comments of traditional bankers, all these efforts to push the price down ended with a bottom at 3000 dollars, we can consider this price level an important level of support for the weeks to come.
RSI, as I said last week, has already given a buy signal on the daily chart, which is also confirmed by its average which is on the rise, but this is the only positive note in a still uncertain picture.
A rise to 4200 dollars is not enough to confirm a reversal of the trend, you have to see strength above 4300 dollars to be able to say that even on the weekly chart has reversed the current bearish trend, however for those who want to try to anticipate the market could try a short-term upward operation with stop loss below 3500$ and target price around 4200-4300$.
In the event of a catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart remains unchanged at 2000-2500 US Dollars.
XBT/USD weekly price range at 3650$-4300$ | As I wrote on twitter the market found support within the support area of my previous update that had a lower limit of $2800. I would like to point out that I will not increase my long-term position opened between 2014 and 2015, but I will tell you when there will be a buying opportunity.
Today’s reaction is positive and I believe that in 1-2 days the ALMA moving average will turn upwards together with the average of the RSI oscillator.
The RSI has already given a purchase signal, but it is better to confirm it when its average slope will also turn positive.
When these conditions are met we will have a buying opportunity.
In the event of a catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart remains unchanged at 2000-2500 US Dollars.
Updated weekly range is 2800$-4300$ | For the first time in many months the XBTUSD cross is testing the VWAP volume average calculated using the last two months of daily data.
This is certainly a sign of a slowdown in the current upward trend, it is important to see how long prices will remain around the VWAP average, which today stands at around $3600, a quickly reaction to the upside from here would mean that this market is still very strong and resilient to all attacks it is receiving since September.
From here to Sunday there could also be a quick visit to the first negative deviation line located at 2800$ but looking at the weekly chart there seems to be room for a minimum in October around $2500, in any case later this month I will publish a long term update to better understand where we might have the next medium term bottom using the weekly chart and not the daily chart more suitable for short-term price movements. This mid-term bottom must be ABOVE the previous one of 1800$ happened in July ’17 in order to mantain a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
The RSI oscillator enters the oversold zone after several weeks with its average just above the oversold threshold located at 30, this may mean that a short rebound of few days is ahead, typical after abrupt downward movements.
Overall I think that the XBTUSD cross can hardly lose more than 50% of its value in a single movement, this would mean strong support at $2500.
XBT/USD weekly price range at 4000$-4950$ | The price range for this week is not very different from last week, we have seen until now a weak September with the price drop from the all time high of 5000$ and despite several negative news the XBTUSD has remained above 4000 dollars.
As you can see in the graph the support area using my KAMA indicator ranges from $3600 to $4000, the resistance zone from $4950 to $5350.
If the 4000$ support will work, then an upward cycle with a minimum target of 4950$ could start, otherwise the 2-month VWAP around 3400$ is an important support.
I think it’s unlikely to see bitcoin under the vwap at 2 months for this and also next week, otherwise it would mean that on the weekly chart a medium-long term correction has started; however it’s still early to say and let see if XBTUSD can stay above $4000 this week.
In case of a unexpected catastrophic news, the support area on the weekly chart is 2000-2500 USD
XBT/USD weekly price range at 4000$-4850$ |The XBTUSD cross has seen a correction during the weekend moving back below the second line of price deviation, I see as important support for this week the price level at 4000 dollars, for those who are willing to buy I would suggest to observe the behavior of the XBTUSD cross around that level.
As already mentioned in the previous update, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a strong position and has been long standing above the VWAP’s first line of deviation and that therefore these corrections are not worrying if limited to 2-3 days.
The average of the RSI oscillator is above the threshold of 70, confirming that the bearish signal of August 26-27 was a false signal as I assumed previously. This indicator is not recently giving clear indications because despite all XBTUSD is maintaining an upward trend without excessive volatility, elements that compromise the proper functioning of any technical oscillator.
In the event of an extreme fall, the support area is 2300-2800 USD
XBTUSD just break out above the resistance level i pointed out yesterday, This is a good news and we have avoided the slightly bearish scenario I had suggested yesterday. It’s crucial now to confirm the breakout avoiding to move below 4460$.
Yesterday i said also that usually the RSI doesn’t go below 50 during a strong uptrend and that’s exactly what happened, a rebound from the level of 50.
Now the resistance level for this week is updated to 5200$ or the third deviation line of the VWAP and i’m pretty sure that it’ll not reach the 4th deviation line at 5900$ as it never happened in all bitcoin history.
XBT / USD weekly price range is 3700$-4460$ | The XBTUSD cross slowed its rise last week togheter with a volatility contraction, failing to break through the all time high at 4480$.
However, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a strong position staying all the time above the first positive price deviation line of the VWAP, but i’ve to notice that for more than ten days it has stayed below the second price deviation line now at 4460$, which is precisely a sign of slowdown.
At this point I think the XBTUSD can make a correction with a strong support located at 3700$ this week or next, this support level should stop any further weakness, I do not expect a VWAP test at 3000$.
The average of the RSI oscillator went below the threshold level of 70, giving a theoretical sell signal, but the RSI is at 50, an intermediate value that normally acts as support during strong upward trends as I have said many times in the past.
XBT / USD weekly price range is 3450$-4700$ | In the previous update, I was expecting an increase to 4800$ but the market retraced back to the second VWAP deviation line, I still think there is the will to move up but as maximum resistance for this week there is the third deviation line at 4700$.
The correction that has been seen from 4400$ to 4000$ is not uncommon in a bullish trend but further weakness could bring price down to the first deviation line at around 3400$ which I consider a good entry point where to buy.
As I explained in the past in a very strong market the RSI tends to approach the threshold of 70 without crossing below it, here we are in a similar situation with the RSI average moving towards 70 and the RSI itself already just above 70.
To conclude this week is somewhat important to see if there is still the possibility to do a new ATH or not in the short term.
In case of extreme fall, the support area is 2000$-2600$.
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