Weekly Range Update

eng
Daily Chart XBTUSD

XBT / USD weekly range $595 – $630 | ALMA daily moving average is flat and the main resistance is the second price deviation line above the VWAP @$630 while the support is always the VWAP @$560, similar price range of the last week.

I think that XBTUSD should remain below $ 630 also this week but a rise above this resistance is close for the same reason i told you in the previous update, the weekly ALMA moving average is slowly turning upward. For those wishing to go short I advise to wait at least $ 660 for this week, more probably next week, before trying a short sell. In any case  i do not recommend to go short for prolonged period of times because the underlying trend is still up.

The RSI oscillator has moved to oversold territory and failed to stay above the threshold of 50 that usually provides support. The average of the oscillator apparently is doing a bottom with the RSI itself that already crossed the thresold of 30 giving a bullish signal.

In the event of a sharp fall, as said many times is always very valuable the support around $420.

Italian version here at Bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

engXBT / USD weekly range $570 – $630 | ALMA daily moving average is flat and the main resistance is the second price deviation line above the VWAP @$630 while the support is always the VWAP @$570. For this week i reduced the volatility setting of the sierrachart vwap indicator because the spread between the lines was too high after the bitcoin collapse of August, this adjustment was necessary and now as you can see the new setting better identifies supports and resistances. (For who uses this indicator with Sierrachart trading platform i adjusted the multiplier from 1-2-3-4 to 0,66-1,33-2-2,66)

I think that XBTUSD should remain below $ 630 also this week but a rise above this resistance is close, why? Because the ALMA average on the weekly chart appears to have turned upside and the breakout above $630 would be the confirmation of this reversal. For those wishing to go short I advise to wait at least $ 660 for this week before trying a short sell.

The RSI oscillator has reversed to the downside BUT since we are in a bullish move the RSI threshold of 50 provides support. An important point of the RSI indicator is the midline at 50 because it acts as support or resistance. Around this level there are many fake-outs, sometimes the RSI will fall just below 50 causing sell stops then suddenly the price just rebound. Likewise if crossing above 50, shorts will be covered only to see a resumed downward move. You must pay attention when the RSI is near this midline.

In the event of a sharp fall, as said many times is always very valuable the support around $420.

Italian version here at Bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

eng
Daily Chart XBTUSD @Bitstamp

XBT/USD weekly range $ 580-$ 630 | ALMA daily moving average is going flat after many days of good advance and the main resistance is now the first positive deviation line of the VWAP at around $ 630.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 630 this week with a second resistance at about $ 680. The weekly ALMA moving average is apparently turning up but i don’t expect a break above $630 because also of an high reading of the RSI oscillator that is in overbought territory above the 70 threshold value..

I said in many previous updates that in case of a volatility spike due to another price crash the deal is to buy slightly above $420.

Italian version here at bitchanger.com

Long Term Update: Weekly View

eng
XBTUSD Weekly chart with price regression channel

This is a weekly chart since the bottom of March, 2015; the underlying weekly tendency is still up since then.
Inside this long term up channel there are secondary tendencies or cycles clearly visibile and highlighted by the alma moving average.

Last up cycle ended on the top just outside the high volatility zone in June 2016. After 3 months we are still in a secondary  down cycle inside a big up cycle. As i’ve told you in previous updates the maximum extension of this down cycle is at $420 as indicated in the above chart, i doubt we will see weakness below this important level.

At the moment the price is exactly at the middle point of the price regression channel and it’s very hard to say which direction it’ll take, in any case if there will be a new crash down to $420 i’ll further increase my long term position; at the same time if XBTUSD start to stay consistently below $420 i’ve to conclude that the long term up cycle is over and a bear market is ahead.

As i’ve said many times in the past years i don’t believe in a prolonged bear market because bitcoin and its network are healthy and just at the beginning of their life. Key is patience.

Weekly Range Update

 

eng
Daily Chart @bitstamp

XBT/USD weekly range $ 550-$ 615 | ALMA daily moving average is still slightly bearish and the main resistance is unchanged at VWAP around $ 615.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 615 this week with a second resistance at about $ 680. The weekly forecast is slighlt bearish but i don’t expect a break below $550 because of low volatility.

In case of a volatility spike due to another price crash the deal is to buy slightly above $420.

Weekly Range Update

xbtusd daily chart @bistamp
xbtusd daily chart @bistamp

XBT/USD weekly range $ 550-$ 620 | ALMA daily moving average is slightly bearish and the main resistance for now is always the VWAP at $ 620.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 620 this week with a second resistance at about $ 690. Volatility has stabilized. The weekly forecast is flat, i don’t expect a break above $620 or below $550.

The average of the RSI  oscillator turned upward and is giving some bullish indications but only a breakout above $ 620 would confirm a bullish scenario.

This article at steemit
Italian version at bitchanger.com

Weekly Range Update

eng
XBTUSD @bitstamp

XBT / USD weekly range $ 495- $ 640 | ALMA daily moving average is still bearish and the main resistance is the VWAP which adjusted to about $ 640 after the flash crash caused by Bitfinex.

I think the cross XBTUSD will remain below $ 640 this week with a second resistance at about $ 715. Volatility after the peak of last week is now stabilizing. The weekly forecast remains bearish, I think we will continue to see the bitcoin below the VWAP to $ 640. The actual price rebound could already be exhausted, if so then i expect a retest of the $565 price level.

The average of RSI oscillator is turning upward but has not yet given a bullish signal, it is at 26 and below the threshold of 30 that identifies the oversold zone.

Because of bitfinex exchange going offline i’m moving back to using bitstamp data.

This article at steemit
Italian version at bitchanger.com

Offtopic: Cacoethes scribendi

“Cacoethes scribendi” or translated from Latin to english “a burning desire to write”, writing always of bitcoin sometimes is boring, today i show you the template i use with metatrader 4 applied to other assets like stocks, indexes and altcoin.

I already explained that an idea that i like is to do a price regression of our asset using a filter that eliminates all cycles below 30-40 periods with the intent to extract the underlying long term trend, then you can try to earn some money trading the secondary cycles that move the price up and down inside the price channel.

SP500/N100 weekly chart

sp500

Mid channel line color is white thus this market is neutral the ideal situation to trade the price levels, at the moment there could be a short opportunity, stoploss above the dotted positive deviation line.

n100

Similar situation for the nasdaq 100 index.

GBPUSD

gbpusd

The big drop of the Brexit is clearly visible, the pound should stay above 1.29, it’s the moment to buy with a stoploss below 1.28

Nikkei 225

nikkei225

Nikkei is short for Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, it is a price-weighted index comprised of Japan’s top 225 blue-chip companies traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei is equivalent to the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index in the United States.
In this mothky chart is visibile the big rise fueled by the quantitative easing of the Japan Central Bank and the subsequent drop after flirting with the resistance at 21000.
At the moment it is holding above the first negative deviation line, i don’t see any trading opportunity.

Tesla

tesla.png

On the weekly chart the tendency is neutral, midline color is white, ideal to trade secondary cycles like the one that pushed down Tesla below 150 usd and below our support, a very good trading opportunity, it is possible also to trade the dotted levels but they are less safe.

Ferrari

ferrari

Daily chart of ferrari (RACE ticker), after an interesting double bottom on the support this stock trended higher above the resistance after the earnings.
I think we are seeing a buying climax and in this situations is smart to sell the good news, i see a short trade opportunity here but it’s wise to wait some weak signals from this stock before going on.

Nintendo and the Pokemon Go Bubble

nintendo

No comment here, the bubble is evident but this stock is still hovering above midline and the long term trend is bullish. Again a nice double bottom at the support.

Apple

aapl

Last five years of Apple in this monthly chart, here the support levels worked almost perfectly. Apple is losing some steam as the midline color is white, neutral long term tendency despite you can see a sequence of higher highs and lows. The stock reacted from the dotted line at around 90 usd but i’m not sure is going up yet, the trading opportunity here is a test at 75-80 usd this year or the next one.

ETCUSD – Hourly chart

etcusd

Hourly chart of ethereum classic, again bubbles are clearly visible. Some congestion outside the upper solid deviation line it’s the warning signal, be prepared to open a short. Now volatility is a bit lower and this altcoin is moving inside the dotted deviation lines. I see a buying opportunity once 1.85 usd is tested.

Conclusions

This price channel indicator is an improvement of the classic bollinger bands indicator, what i don’t like of the bollinger bands is the wrong way to compute the upper and lower bands that might lead to very misleading values sometimes as i explained at the end of this old article. To keep things simple i omitted to include some timing indicators, for example adding the Walter Bressert DSS oscillator with ethereum classic we have:

etcusd+dss

Clean cycles togheter with a correct approach to spot support/resistance levels and you have a decent guide to follow. This oscillator is configured using 9 periods and 5 periods for a second pass smoothing.

 

 

Long Term Update

This is a template i use with metatrader 4 where you can see a price regression channel. Yellow line is the same average i use on sierrachart, ALMA moving average.

weekly
Weekly Chart since October 2013

The dotted deviation lines are calculated using the volatility derived from the average true range indicator. The solid deviation lines are calculated with the same approach but using two times the value of the average true range. Most of the time XBTUSD stays inside the dotted deviation lines but during period of high volatility it moves towards the solid deviation lines as happened in the last Top of June at $780.

With the bitfinex flash crash XBTUSD tested the first lower deviation line at $475 although on some exchanges the bottom touched $460. I don’t think is over yet, there might be a secondary reaction that can last all this month and maybe part of September with a test of the lower deviation line, this price level is near $400 as indicated in the chart.

The color of the mid-channel line represents the strength of the trend, red if bearish, white for neutral and green if bullish, at the moment the main trend is bullish and it’ll not change if XBTUSD doesn’t move below $400 for a prolonged period of time. I’m not going to liquidate my position as soon XBTUSD stays inside this long term bullish price channel.

As usual this article is available also at steemit.

Weekly Range Update

XBTUSD daily Chart with support resistance levels
XBTUSD daily Chart with support resistance levels

XBT / USD weekly range $605-$ 660 | ALMA daily moving average is bearish and the main resistance is the VWAP at about $ 660, first support at $605.

XBTUSD broke previous week support and is now in a weak position under $ 660 US dollars. The resistance zone is $ 660-710, I think that XBTUSD will remain below $ 660 this week with a second resistance at about $ 710. The volatility finally increased with a drop in the last weekend.

The weekly forecast remains bearish, I think we will continue to see the bitcoin below the VWAP at $ 660.

The only positive note is the RSI oscillator that entered in oversold territory after a while and could allow a bitcoin rebound in the next few days, rebound which should end at the VWAP ($ 660).

 

  • Italian version here at Bitchanger
  • I’m posting also at steemit, if you want to follow me there and upvote my posts click here.