Short Term Update: Trade idea for next 24-48 hrs

Since the early June 2014 high at ~$685, the XBT/USD daily chart has been in a downtrend. By early October, it reached $275 and a move lower towards $220 is not excluded as i said on my previous update. For now a good trade idea could be to buy on the dip around $307 with a take profit at $320; or alternatively go short now with $307 as a target and a stop loss placed just above $335.  Recently I dusted off an old program that uses Elliott Waves Concepts and with a short term analysis i’ve a similar target, $310 and $300. The analysis has been made using minute and minuette as order of degrees; it’s common knowledge that minute or minuette wave degree is intended for few days and hours as investment horizon.
chart

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60 thoughts on “Short Term Update: Trade idea for next 24-48 hrs

  1. So if i understand you correctly you think the 300-307 line will hold for now.
    and that i later could be broken so we would head towards the 220-230 you mentioned on your previous post?

    Last time i had a bit of bad luck when i tried to do that with the 360 dollar defence line. First time it hold so i bought arround 370 the second time but then i breached and went down to the 340 dollar line. I’m now full fiat waitin for a new low + rebouce.

    1. it’s a very short term scenario, a break of $300-$307 doesn’t mean it will go at $220, the time frame used for my previous update analysis is much bigger then the time frame used for this analysis, they don’t have nothing in common.
      This is just a trading idea for the next 24-48 hrs if the market moves to 308 or so.

      1. Yeah. In that case i did get wat you mean 🙂
        I’m gonna try to do a nice trade if it comes close to the 307.

        But after the rebounce i’m going fiat again. Somehow i still have the feeling we will go lower then 300. And in time maybe below 250. Time will tell.

  2. Arthur

    Thanks Enky! I’m not posting much here lately because the chatroom provides a lot of info too, but believe me… I’m following this place closely too. I’m hoping you will keep on posting here, it is very much appreciated. 🙂

    Funny thing is, I had planned a 302.50 buy in to check out a bounce up towards 330. Or higher, since 350 is a nice resistance too. Very tight stop loss though, in case the turmoil towards the 200s will ignite anyway. But time-frame wise there is room for a bounce, since I’m expecting the drop into the 200s only much later this month, or maybe even early December. And 300 could be a firm support again for a second time I think. Those who bought at 300 a month ago from that 30,000 XBT seller will have taken profits at 400, and are ready to buy in again. And there might be some second-chance opportunity takers too at 300. We’ll see…

    1. Arthur

      Ah well, forget it. I was hoping for this bounce to 350 after we reached <310 but obviously it didn't go like that. Bitcoin is a volatile bitch…

  3. dude

    yep, always nice to see updates from you, i’m not in that chat, i see that you have interested more about EW 🙂

      1. And so far we only touched 340 but did not really brake it. We have had more of these little bounces back up the last few months and after them we went down again.

        I’m now bearisch i’m gonna wait it out. But i do really wonder how low we will go and if we will ever see 600-700+ again. Time will tell 🙂

      2. dude

        thats why i said bounce 🙂 imo there’s a chance that we will break 340, then up little bit before final bottom below 275

  4. hello
    I am newbie in the field of bitcoin and wonder what is the reason for the down trend since June? What has changed compared with June? Does anyone know?
    regards

    1. Peter

      There are many variables one that I think is the most likely is it was only 2 years ago when bitcoin was trading at $10. We had one of the biggest bull runs in human history. There are still many people bullish on Bitcoin but this downtrend is merely a correction.

    2. A Coinfiend

      I’d like to comment on this, as someone who’s been following XBT since 2011, just like Enky. My opinion is that there was some real demand for bitcoins, starting with the run-up from $13 (i.e. Jan 2013) to $166, this is the time period normally associated with the banking problems in Cyprus. After that, the market corrected back to $90, then started a gradual rise prior to September 2013. After early September, a combination of irrational exuberance, plus fuel on the fire from an illegal trading bot running on Mt. Gox (see: http://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of-massive-fraudulent-trading-activity-at-mt-gox-and-how-it-has-affected-the-price-of-bitcoin/ ) made the price jump up from $120 to $1200. Those are the facts. My opinion, is that the current price of XBT should be somewhere around $400+. However, others might point to the way the whole market, on a long timeline, seems to be following wave theories in a long-term downward trend, like so: https://btctrading.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/chart3.png Hope that helps.

      1. @ A Coinfiend
        Hello, Thanks for your reply. Yes, it was helpful. The two links were very interesting. Thanks for that. Because the graph is on the long-tern downward trend you can buy relative cheap Bitcoins, or you wait a bit, buy when they are even cheaper and hope for a recovery? Have I understood correctly? What could cause an recovery? Many purchases?
        regards

  5. James Mahony

    Hi Enky,

    I need your advice. I spent a large amount of money to buy BTC back at the peak period and I am still sitting on it.

    I do not need that money right now, but I want to get back my capital on the longer term with the smallest possible loss.

    After the events of the recent months, I have absolutely no idea to what to do now. If the Chinese are changing the legislation of BTC then it can cause the next boom on the market. Apart from that the increasing complexity of mining are necessarily driving up the prices, right?

    Thanks,
    James

    1. For the mining question i think that is the price that drives the network difficulty (complexity of mining) and so the profitability. Difficulty is rising and not falling this means that the price is not so low to justify a collapse of the network speed, for now the doom scenario is avoided:)

      A long term investment should be at least 3 years, don’t forget that on average the venture capitalist firms don’t invest for a time horizon less then 3 yrs.
      I’d expect at least 2017 (after the next block halving from 25 to 12.5 btc/block) before drawing some conclusions on your investment. As an early adopter (i’m here since 2011) i’ll do the same, to wait at least the 2017.

  6. Peter

    There are many variables one that I think is the most likely is it was only 2 years ago when bitcoin was trading at $10. We had one of the biggest bull runs in human history. There are still many people bullish on Bitcoin but this downtrend is merely a correction.

  7. Arthur

    What is this sudden bullishness about, guys? Is there any news I might have missed, or is it just one of those bull traps?

    1. Peter

      Did you hre about ChangeTip going VIRAL? This is the first indicator that people will actually take to micro-transacting Bitcoin’s killer app. ChangeTip going viral made me a hell of a lot more confident, I even bought 1 more whole bitcoin, 40% at $320 and the other 60% at $360.

      1. croll83

        ChangeTip is going Viral, but it’s not really a Bitcoin innovation. It’s something centralized, also PayPal could do it. It does offchain transaction. The only plus of changetip is that allow only BTC payments to get in/out and it can allow you to send bitcoin to people who don’t knows about. So this can show Bitcoin to several new adopters that can be fascinated by the technology and invest by themself into. So IMO ChangeTip is good for spreading but we need something more that shows real Bitcoin power…

    2. Arthur

      Yeah uhm well I did hear about ChangeTip but from a technical point of view it doesn’t make sense that the price of Bitcoin is going viral too.

      I mean, on bitstamp it takes roughly the buying of 3,000 coins to bring the price $30 up. That is, if there is no extra selling pressure. Now let’s presume each tipper want $10 tipping money in bitcoins. That means it takes 35 people to buy one bitcoin. To bring the price $30 up on bitstamp, it takes 3,000*35=105,000 tipping people. But since there is also a constant (instant) selling pressure from parts of the receiving end of the tips and other sellers, it needs a constantly growing flow of new tippers buying a fraction of a bitcoin. I’m not sure that we will win the war like that right now… But who knows, traders might anticipate on upcoming trends already.

      1. Peter

        True, probs justhe me being optimistic and buying into a pump. Nm. Think we’re gonna see a lot side wards till next year and I imagine enky still bearish with possible 220 bottom.

      1. Arthur

        Maybe you’re not that far off, actually… Russian rubel dropped quite firmly lately. And if that corner of the world pumps a fraction of their money into bitcoin when the shit really hits the fan… Beware.

      1. Same here still waiting for the drop close to 300 or even below 300.
        I was supprised about the RSI the last week. And the new peak of 375.

  8. Christian

    I think you guys are missing the point, btc is going up big time, soon… Silk Road 2.0 got shutdown. I my opinion, this is the single biggest event that happened before last fall run up. Do you think drug dealers can afford to keep their btc? There is more to this than just charts and algorithms although they are useful for identifying trends, they do not make the trends 😉

    Traders shorting now might be in for a big surprise, we will see…

    1. Andre

      If this is all true, wouldn’t that mean that we see a major drop 1st as we have now extra BTC which need to be bought (distributed in the market) ?
      So, I would think a major drop and then a correction. But I am happy to learn !

      1. Christian

        I don’t think we will see a drop this time even if there was a small one last year just before the run up. BTC is not driven by news, but by events, just like anything else.

        There is not more or less btc from this, but it will lower the selling pressure by roughly 25k btc per month, that is 25% of the network production or newly created coins right now. You can bet it will make a big difference within a few weeks as I don’t think there will be very much fewer buyers on the exchanges. Again, we will see…

        You can also bet the authorities will be more confident that they can control illegal activity related to Bitcoin and they will start to see the many benefits of a digital traceable money system. Not to mention the seized btc which are of the market since the shutdown. Probably several thousands if not in the 5 digits.

  9. Christian

    This is very bullish as it demonstrate the ability for authorities to systematically track, trace and prosecute international criminal organisations putting a shadow on this technology. As weird as it seems drug trafficking made btc what it is today and only when btc get free from it, will it be able to achieve what it was meant to be.

  10. Bitcoin is absolutely not driven by news. Its not forex. We dont see any peaks at the release time of news. Maybe that
    going to change one day. There is a sentiment demand but very verly low one as new coins are released every 10 minutes instantly.

    Its the demand or and speculation of pump and dump. in the timeframe of the last week it was a demand rally as the swap prices staying low.

    1. And sometimes it is. MTGOX and the China BTC Ban anyone? Everytime there was bad news around MTGOX or Silkroads the value would plummet down.

      It’s mostly not driven by good news but bad news around MTGOX and China had huge impact on the value.

    2. Arthur

      Well, yes and no, Astenn. Looking backwards we can see firm dumps on those news items (I will never forget the day Mt Gox went bankrupt and the bitcoin price nosedived on that). However, in the big picture, those corrections would have happened anyway but on a slower pace I’m sure. Like the PayPal news caused a $50 spike, but after that we returned to the downward correction again.

  11. Christian

    Supply and demand is the driving force, events have a very direct correlation with that. News create panic selling or buying mania but the are not sustainable over time. The Paypal news is not an event as it did not create more demand or diminish supply. Silk Road shutdown is a very direct event diminishing supply significantly.

    Price will rise creating more demand and so on until we reach a point where many holders will feel it’s time to cash in. If there are more buyers then sellers when this occurs, price will still go up, it’s that simple… Also, I don’t believe miners will sell massively until we are well into the 4 digits. They will sell to pay the expenses, no more than they need to.

  12. Christian

    “here is a sentiment demand but very verly low one as new coins are released every 10 minutes instantly” Dude, if you knew how hard it is to generate those coins right now. You would know that they are very much undervalued right now and you would more than welcome an instant 25% decrease in supply…

  13. Christian

    On a final note, news will eventually have a direct effect on Bitcoin. I believe this will be when the masses realise that is not fading away anytime soon and that they somehow missed the gravy train out of fear and misinformation. You know when you hear about something dying once, twice or a third time, but it keeps coming back much stronger than it was before the fall… There will be a time when even the average Joe can see the trend clearly over time because it will be blindingly obvious. Can you image this happening in early fall 2016 just in time for the next halving?

    btc should go to 40k in a swing driven by news and event at the same time 😉 This is only the beginning…

  14. Enky’s prediction off 330-375 range was broken this morning. Peak at 387-389.
    Where will this end? This little bull run just keeps going on and on.

  15. Christian

    I would say at least 500$ before we see a little downside… Then a steady rise again to 700-800$. We have catching up to do, btc is very much undervalued @ the current price

    1. Andre

      So, you reckon we have a real bull run now – why ? My understanding was that there would be bounce back (from the 275$) to something like 430$ and then ~220$ by the end of this year.
      If I get you right, you predict a steady rise and then a more stable “base course” around 700-800$. I’d like to understand the thoughts behind your prediction.

      1. if its going up, everyone think its going more up. and if it went up, you think you were right and you think you will be right again, but its going down. its a gamble and 85% end after one month with 0 coins in their account. And after three months 50 % of the 15%. Its the same like driving a rally without having a driving license. Even pros are starting with simulations of their trading skills, before they go trading live. But when you know what you are doing its just boring, its just exciting when you gamble.

        At 420 there is still space up to 480 – 510 and down to 370. (not an advice to trade)

      2. Christian

        You guys don’t get it… Silk Road 2.0 and many more black markets are down. Supply on exchanges will be about 20-25% less than it was, demand is the same = price going up. No crystal ball or trading skill needed for that.It will go down a bit but I am very bullish for the coming weeks. By the time SR 3.0 gets going full fledge if it ever does price should be around 700-800$ maybe more… I don’t think you will ever see Bitcoin under 300$ again or for a flash if it ever does, I might be wrong, we will see…

      1. FJ

        You placed a question with me October 14., replying in a polite way would be the least I could do.

        Quote:

        “FJ on October 14, 2014 at 19:03 said:
        BTC 0.005 that we will see 430 within 12 hours…:-)))))
        George on October 15, 2014 at 08:44 said:
        when do you start those 12 hours?”

    1. Christian

      Thanks for that link man, I think Ethereum was a brilliant idea and I personally met Vitalik Buterin, a smart, but young man. we disagreed over one single thing. He perceived mining as a problem for the Bitcoin protocol while it is its greatest strength.

      Again, it is only the beginning, ASIC technology is not only good but necessary for the Bitcoin infrastructure to scale out. You need to have dedicated super computing power for this network to run smoothly. I envision a day when most people will have a toaster, a washer, dryer and a Bitcoin miner to pay for bread and butter.The network is now 300 PH/S, it took 4.7 years to achieve 1 PH/S in September 2013, just a little over a year ago.

      This thing is a monster about to be unleashed… Litecoin has also has a very robust and highly secure blockchain and I have hi hopes for Bitcoin little brother… Namecoin is also very interesting even if mostly ignored for now. Most are only seeing the tip of the iceberg.

      1. Peter

        Very true, with Namecoin, the coin actually has merit for use value but its from it’s very strength (decentralization) that it lacks it’s support I believe. Although many coins and services would be better off decentralized I don’t think in the case of DSN this will be beneficial. There is no way of dealing with trademark infringement or name squatting on Namecoin, the courts are effectively powerless. Some may argue this is a good thing and I’m sure in many instances trademark laws are too harsh but the reason I see Namecoin failing to catch on is because institutional companies that are protected by the law would never move their services to Namecoin because of this lack of protection, hence Namecoin will struggle to ever make it mainstream. However, It does offer superior DSN security in regards to name protection though.

  16. Pwnyboy

    I just want to correct the record, according to my best understanding, in regards to some misinformation. And I think this is relevant to the crowd who follows this blog. I’ve seen multiple articles on the web that cite how the bitcoin network is increasing its transaction volume, yet transaction fees are not going up. Those people giving their opinion seem to believe this is some kind of evidence that the increase in number of transactions does not equal real commerce. I submit that this assertion is not supported by fact. As part of BIP70, an improvement to the bitcoin protocol, transaction fees are no longer necessary any time you send bitcoin to a properly-configured merchant. This is because under BIP70, transactions are sent directly from customer to merchant, without any need to broadcast them on the bitcoin mesh network (the peer-to-peer mining/transaction processing apparatus). The [properly configured] merchant “bundles” the transactions into one, and periodically pays a transaction fee on the entire bundle, in order to get them included into a block. One such participating merchant is Bitpay. So the opinion that bitcoin’s use in real commerce is not going up, is not demonstrably true. See: https://gist.github.com/gavinandresen/4120476 – more specifically the section entitled “What about a merchant-pays-fee feature”. In my opinion, every transaction is a real, legitimate, use of commerce.

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