Chek this post of one year ago for a brief explanation of the theory beyond this forecast. This year I propose again the same analysis and it will be a main guide about support and resistance levels for all 2016.
Updated values for bitcoin (in brackets values of last year)
|Growth Factor G||1.000166 (1.000553)|
|Shannon Probability P||0.515 (0.518)|
|Root mean square RMS (or volatility factor)||0.053 (0.056)|
More or less bitcoin’s entropic values dropped a bit, with less volatility and a smaller value for the growth now 0.000166% compounded daily or 6% yearly growth down from 22% of 1y ago.
|2016 Price forecast||Full volatility||Half volatility|
|Forecast using only G*||458$||458$|
|Upper bound adding volatility||1257$||760$|
|Lower bound subtracting volatility||167$||277$|
*458 is obtained with today price (432$) times (1.000166^365)=1.06
432*1.06=458, just change 365 with the number of days you prefer for a different forecast.
For a more aggressive forecast you can use 1.001742 instead of 1.000166, this bigger value for growth doesn’t consider measurement error due to the short dataset I used, only 1145 days of historical data. Use this bigger value at your own risk:)
As usual i recommend to consider the support/resistance levels obtained with a halved volatility value thus for 2016 btc has an high probability to stay inside the $277-$760 price zone with a strong support at around $170 in case of panic selling.
At the same time i think that at the end of a strong buying climax period it’ll be hard to see btc price above 1250$ and very unlikely if not impossible to see it at or above 3400$ (using twice the value of historical volatility).