Long Term Update: Will it work?

Since I published the annual forecast last January ’22, BTCUSD has already tested the lower limit of the forecast twice, at around $30,000.
I don’t know whether to interpret this behaviour as a sign of weakness or not. What is certain is that if the TOP of this halving cycle has been made it is very likely to test at least the 1st lower band of my monthly Kama average (22,700$).
Let’s see in detail the levels that I consider interesting to observe.

BTCUSD Monthly chart since 2017 Top

I would interpret as a signal of possible weakness a breach of the $29,800 level, certainly we need to consider how long bitcoin will remain below that level.
In times of temporary high volatility it would not be so serious a short permanence there; however a prolonged stay below this level would have long term bearish implications. What does this mean? It means that the games are over for this cycle and we will have to wait for the next halving of 2024, so I would say 2025, to see a new all-time high. This conclusion I guess doesn’t surprise you, by now the 4-year halving cycle of bitcoin is well known to the public.

The question is whether the price will stop at the first level of the Kama band or not. I think so, around $22,000 the support will be very strong and there will be buyers.
I exclude a severe test at the next support, around $14,000, also because bitcoin has never moved below the high of the previous halving cycle, in this case the last one was at around $19,800 in Dec. 2017; furthermore even during the corona crash the price stopped on the first lower band (at that time $3,800)
I wonder what needs to happen to see bitcoin test the second price band at $14k, if any of you have ideas please come forward 🙂

Personally, I will be a buyer again around the first support of the Kama average, around $22,000. Should an extreme level of volatility occur, I will increase the position at $14,000 with a doubled position size (1 unit at 22k$ and 2 units at 14k$) because i’ve to capitalize when volatility is at extreme levels without any fear.
See you at the next update.

5 thoughts on “Long Term Update: Will it work?

  1. Nika

    Hey Enky, thanks for the update!

    “I wonder what needs to happen to see bitcoin test the second price band at $14k”
    How about a World War III where a bunch of critical infrastructure that holds up global internet gets destroyed. It can be just a brief period before it gets repaired, but it is going to call into question some fundamental things and cause panic.

    1. ERG

      Dude WWIII would most likely be the end of civilization. Most critical ressource would be uncontaminated water/food to at least have a small chance of survival. The least concern should be the btc price, and the whole WW3 thing is off the table anyway, so in my view absolutely nonsence to consider WW3 in investment strategy.

      If you really wanna mitigate ww3 risk build a bunker in southern argentina, stock water/food supply for a few years and keep staying there. -> thats probably the only way to effectively mitigate this risk

      1. Nika

        You are assuming WW3 has to involve nuclear weapons. Which it does not. It is just something people assumed would happen in their arguments that we must do everything to prevent it. If this 3 month war showed us anything, it is that countries are perfectly happy to duke it out conventional way.

        You already have war in Europe. You have Israel preparing for Iran invasion. You have China poised to attack Taiwan for a long time now. You have Japan pushing to make changes in their constitution from strict self-defence and declaration that Kuril islands are illegally occupied. Entire world is strained by conflicts ready to erupt. Our history is full of wars, we were just lucky to be born in an era that has not seen major conflicts for awhile. Dismissing wars as impossible is the foolish thing to do, not the other way around.

        Life will go on as it always does and no it does not have to be some nuclear wasteland. Damage will be done and it will be repaired. Trade will continue and there will still be need for currencies, digital or otherwise.

  2. Vitaliy

    Soon, after collapse Dome of the Rock, nuclear war is started.
    Prophecy, Joseph Vatopedi.
    US, Europe, Russia, Turkey, will killed 1 billion peoples.

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